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Home of Storm Chaser Videographer Jeff Gammons.

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Last news: October 28, 2008 02:42:10

Discussions, thoughts, and comments from the ABC 33/40 team of meteorologists. Updated often daily, 7 days a week!

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Last news: 21 minutes ago

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT: We warm into the low 90s today with a partly sunny sky, and we will still mention some risk of a [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl is now a Category Two storm with winds sustained around 105 MPH in the eye wall, but hurricane force winds (74 MPH and higher) extend out about 70 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds are out 205 miles from the center (39 MPH or higher).

At 3 AM Central, the strongest winds could be found in eastern North Carolina around Cedar Island and Frisco. Here was the NWS Moorehead City’s wind round-up at the top of the hour:

Earl is making a turn to the north-northeast, and although there will not be an official “landfall” in the United States, tropical storm force winds and gusts in the 70 to 90 MPH range will be possible early today in North Carolina’s Outer Banks and again tomorrow morning in eastern Massachusetts, Maine, and into Nova Scotia, Canada. Rough surf is also expected up and down the coast.

-Jason

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

000 WTNT32 KNHC 030238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS…NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…33.8N 74.4W ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM [...] - [Read more]

Sure looks like there is now some eastward component of motion. While Earl is mainly moving north, it sure looks like the center will stay a little east of the Outer Banks later tonight, which is great news. With this path and the recent weakening trend, things look better for the North Carolina coast.

There will be some coastal flooding issues, but no major structural damage with this scenario. The 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory will be out shortly and we will post when issued.

These are some spot reports along coastal sections of the Mid Atlantic states as well as some offshore reports;

…..Cape Hatteras, light rain, wind NE 17, gusts 29
…..Beaufort, N.C., light rain, wind north 24, gusts 36
…..Norfolk, cloudy east 9 mph
…..Buoy 64 miles east of Virginia Beach, 11 foot waves at 12 second intervals
…..Diamond Shoals, N.C., water temperature 83, wind NE 38, gusts 47, 20-foot waves and 16 foot swells
…..Frying Pan Shoals, wind north 30, gusts 43, 13 foot waves and 10 foot swells
…..Quantico, Va., cloudy, wind SE 14
…..Ocean City, Md., cloudy, wind east 5
…..Myrtle Beach, S.C., partly cloudy, wind north, gusts 23

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD…RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA… SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…33.0N 74.7W ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM [...] - [Read more]

A NASA pilotless drone has flown into Hurricane Earl today and produced images like this below. Read more about the drone and the mission here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. RIGHT NOW: Not quite as hot as forecast this afternoon, and nobody is griping about that. Birmingham is at 91 degrees at 2:00 (we expected [...] - [Read more]

WTNT33 KNHC 021747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 200 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010 …FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST… SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…25.0N 66.3W ABOUT 520 MI…835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW [...] - [Read more]

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT… SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…31.7N 75.2W ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA [...] - [Read more]

NOTE: This is the latest “discussion” about Earl instead of the formal advisory. As the day goes on (and tonight) we will be posting the regular advisories and more frequent spot reports along and offshore including buoy reports and local statements.
——————————————————————————
WTNT42 KNHC 021456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS…AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED…EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED…EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

…..Hilton Head Island, sunny, wind north 12, gusts 21

…..Myrtle Beach…..Sunny, north sustained 17 mph

…..Cape Lookout, N.C., wind NE 27, gusts 33

…..Buoy 41010, wind NW 25, gusts 34, 13-foot waves

…..Cape Hatteras, cloudy, wind east 13, gusts 24

…..Buoy 300 NM south of Myrtle Beach (345 land miles) water temperature 84, (hurricanes love that)…wind NW 26, gusts 34, 13 foot waves at 13 second intervals

…..West Bermuda buoy No. 41048, wind ESE, gusts 30, waves 13 feet at 13 second intervals

…..Buoy 41001, 150 NM miles east Cape Hatteras, wind east at 30 mph, 16 foot waves occurring every nine seconds. Sea surface temperature 82

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 920 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS… MAJOR HURRICANE EARL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY…THEN ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. MID 90s POSSIBLE TODAY: Before we get to that refreshing Labor Day weekend, the weather will be pretty hot today across the great state of [...] - [Read more]

This bad boy looks very impressive on satellite images tonight. Here is the latest advisory from NHC: BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 …EARL A LITTLE STRONGER…THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…27.8N 73.8W ABOUT [...] - [Read more]

These notes are taken from the official NWS regular forecasts (not from special statements) to give you an idea of what is expected from Hurricane Earle along the Atlantic Seaboard. People are already being evacuated from places like the North Carolina Outer Banks as well as other places.

CAPE HATTERAS/OUTER BANKS
Hurricane Warning in effect. OK tonight but for Thursday, tropical storm conditions developing with hurricane conditions possible by late afternoon. East wind 15-20 mph becoming NE 20-30, gusts to 40 in the afternoon. For Thursday night…Tropical storm conditions with possible hurricane conditions.. Northeast wind 35-45 mph becoming northwest 40-50 mph after midnight, gusts to 65 mph increasing to 70 mph after midnight. For Friday, hurricane conditions possible in the morning. Wind gusts to 50 diminishing by afternoon.

NORFOLK
Tropical Storm and a Hurricane Watch. Wind gusts to 50 mph Thursday night and Friday.

WASHINGTON
Coastal Flood Watch 6 am Thursday until late Thursday night. No real strong winds.

NANTUCKET
Hurricane Watch
No unusual weather through Thursday night. On Friday, possible tropical storm conditions and even a possibility of hurricane conditions. East winds gusting to 55 mph Friday afternoon. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night with extensive rain, heavy at times. Northeast winds will increase to 50-60 mph with gusts as high as 75 mph. This will cause huge breaking waves. Improving weather is expected Saturday with sunny, cool weather Sunday.

AS OF 7 PM ALABAMA TIME

27.2 North
73.5 West
…..565 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, N.C
…..Moving toward the NNW at 15 knots (about 17 mph)
…..Center pressure 941 millibars
…..Sustained winds 135 mph
…..wind gusts to 160 mph

Category four

We now have three named systems on the board in the Atlantic… Hurricane Earl, and Tropical Storms Fiona and Gaston. The strong wave in the far eastern Atlantic most likely will become Tropical Storm Hermine sooner than later.

The GFS recurves Gaston in the Atlantic before reaching the U.S., but that is certainly subject to change since that system has a lower latitude. And, of course, for the infant Hermine we have no idea of the ultimate destination. This might be a September to remember in the tropics…

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 …DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…26.3N 73.3W ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. HOTTER TOMORROW: Some observations at 2:00 around Alabama include 92 at Muscle Shoals, 91 at the Shelby County Airport below Alabaster, and 88 at the [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  It is moving NW.  A recent US Air Force reconassiance flight found a flight level wind of 138 knots (159 mph), so Earl may be strengthening.  Clearly, this is a large and powerful hurricane that needs to be taken seriously by anyone on the east coast of the US north of Savannah, GA.

Earl has already begun its turn NW, into the weakness in the upper level ridge.  Hurricanes move toward a path of least resistance north.  On its current NW track, it would hit the US directly.  BUT, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  Luckily, the first real cold front of the fall is coming in, with an upper-level trough, by Friday, and that trough will help push Earl more NE, likely keeping it from making a direct landfall on the East Coast.

The problem is, a slight deviation to the left could bring Earl into the outer banks of NC Friday, or even into Cape Cod Friday night.  However, the models are consistent day-to-day that this will not happen. 

However, we can’t focus on the exact track of the center of the hurricane, since it is so large.  Number one, with strong onshore flow north of the hurricane, a significant storm surge, possibly as high as 3 to 5 feet above normal tides, is possible from Wilmington, NC all the way to Boston.  Secondly, Earl is generating huge waves.  Buoys in the Atlantic are reporting waves around 38 feet this morning.  Analaysis of waves:

Notice that the red areas show waves over 30 feet, and the green areas show waves over 15 feet.  Some of these large waves will be approaching the coasts of NE FL, GA, SC, and NC later today.

Also, with Earl being so large, even if the NHC forecast track is right on, tropical storm force wind gusts could extend inland as far as Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, and Manchester, NH.   Places like the outer banks of NC and Cape Cod will likely see wind gusts over 80 mph, possibly much higher.  Norfolk, VA and Long Island, NY could see wind gusts over 65 mph.

Hurricane Earl is maintaining strength as a 125 MPH wind-packing Category 3 storm this morning, and Fiona is a little stronger too with 60 MPH sustained winds. A Hurricane Warning is now up for

Here’s a rundown of the latest information on both storms:

Hurricane Earl

Full forecast advisory: NHC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Full forecast advisory: NHC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA …PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

The Atlantic is going to stay active for a while! We are getting near the climatological peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic including the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression #9 formed today, and another wave east of it could develop into TD #10 in the next few days!

-Jason

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

The National Hurricane Center has just designated the tropical wave mentioned earlier this morning as Tropical Depression Nine:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

…ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.4N 35.8W
ABOUT 830 MI…1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1720 MI…2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

Lots of people interested in Coastal North Carolina in regards to Earl. This is the latest from that area. As the drama unfolds, we will also post spot reports from that area. We will also post a new advisory from the National Hurricane Center about 10 am, Alabama time. URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to Josh New for this image… he writes…

“James,

This picture was taken via cellphone between Marion and Selma this morning. I think this may be a sunrise hole punch cloud? Interesting anyway…Enjoy!”

Sure does look like a “hole punch” cloud. Read more about them here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. PLEASANT MORNING: Feels pretty good this morning with a clear sky. We note Crossville and Valley Head in Northeast Alabama have dropped to 59 degrees, [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to Brandon Harris for this image… he writes:

“Hey James,

Here’s a panoramic I shot this afternoon from Orange Beach. Thought you’d enjoy seeing it.

Brandon from Jacksonville”

WTNT32 KNHC 312042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 …LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC…PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…22.0N 68.8W ABOUT 150 MI…245 KM [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is generally partly sunny across the great state of Alabama this afternoon after the illegal showers this morning. Temperatures range from [...] - [Read more]

Last week we posted video of a dust devil in Pell City; check out these images from Paula Wheeler, who writes:

“James / JB / et al,

Just thought I’d pass along these pics from my son in Iraq. North of Baghdad.

He says ……. That is actually Sand.. just the wind whirling it around.. its weird when you see one out in the middle of nowhere.. and it goes up as far as you can see….

PaulaW”

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph this afternoon.  It has weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle (notice no clear hurricane eye), but is expected to intensify some more over the next 2 days.  After that, as it starts to encounter some wind shear near the US East Coast, it should weaken again, but still be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.

The track of Earl is the big question, since it will almost certainly be an intese hurricane as it approaches the east coast.  Earl is trying to turn NW today, into a weakness in the upper-level ridge left by Hurricane Danielle (some say that hurricanes follow the path of least resistance to the north).  However, this storm needs to make a 90 degree turn at least to avoid a landfall in the United States.  Right now, all models indicate that at will, in large part due to an approaching upper-level trough and cold front late this week.

Hopefully, the storm won’t speed up, and the front won’t slow down, because this one will be a close call, first for North Carolina, then for the Delmarva peninsula, then even for Long Island, Massachussetts, and Maine.  Here is the latest track forecast from NHC, and the computer models.

Even if Earl makes the big turn and avoids a direct landfall on the east coast, a hurricane this powerful will likely cause large storm surges to its north, in places like NC, SE VA, DE, and MD early on.  Then, some storm surge is possible in the NE US (including NYC and Boston).  But, it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen.  A small change of 100 miles in either direction could change this into a major disaster, or just a news event.  On the track, it will still be close enough to bring tropical storm force wind gusts possibly as far inland as Raleigh, NC and Williamsburg, VA.  The NHC is considering hurricane watches for parts of the US later today.

This is a storm to watch very closely.

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 …POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…21.2N 67.9W ABOUT 205 MI…335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to a number of our readers who sent in these images of the morning sky over Alabama… great rainbows and sunrise scenes!

Thanks to Robin Hill for this shot of a rainbow this morning in Munford… we have a beautiful sunrise in progress over the eastern third of the state…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. SUBBORN SHOWERS: We begin the day with a few light, illegal shower activity over Alabama (when we say illegal, that means we didn’t forecast them [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to a number of our readers who sent in these images of a beautiful sunset this evening… nice shots!

WTNT32 KNHC 302047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 …EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…19.3N 64.7W ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM [...] - [Read more]

WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

…TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI…1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH…39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK…FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. SHOWERS HANGING TOUGH: Quite frankly, most of us figured the showers would be gone by midday today, but light rain persists in the general area [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl now a dangerous Category Three. A couple of spot reports closer to Earl. These observations at 11 am, Alabama time:

PUERTO RICO
…..San Juan…..rain, wind NW 22, gusts to 29

VIRGIN ISLANDS
…..Charlotte, Rain, wind NW 26, gusts 47
…..Christiansted, heavy rain, wind west gusts to 36

We will be posting more and more of these reports over the next few days as Earl continues toward the west, then northwest and finally more toward the north including offshore buoy reports especially off the Mid Atlantic US Coast.

Scattered showers started developing before sunrise from Birmingham south toward the Gulf Coast, and a batch of light to moderate showers will continue to move north from near Evergreen and Selma toward Chilton, Shelby, Jefferson, Blount and Cullman Counties.

Clouds and light rain won’t let the sun through to warm us up much, so don’t expect much of a change from yesterday. Temperatures will probably top out in the middle 80s at best once the light showers shift west of Birmingham this afternoon, so enjoy one more “cooler” day before the heat gets cranked back up by the middle of the week!

Here’s the updated forecast.

Be sure to scroll down and see JB’s rainfall round-up from the weekend!

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

-Jason

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 …EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…18.7N 63.6W ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 [...] - [Read more]

Just what we needed in Alabama. A rain event that covered most or all of the state during the last three days. An added plus was that a good part of the rain was a slow steady rain that allowed almost all of it to soak in. However, there was also some thunderstorms thrown into the mix that dumped some heavy rain. Even a few trees down.

This is a list of amounts just in the 24 hours ending this morning with a few notes about two-day totals. This is not an all-inclusive list. We may add some reports later if time permits:

1.42 Decatur Airport
0.76 Huntsville Airport
0.18 Muscle Shoals
0.18 in Bankhead National Forest
0.28 Courtland
0.43 Crossville
1.92 Cullman Ag Station
0.72 Guntersville
0.17 Muscle Shoals/TVA
0.26 Russellville
0.01 Scottsboro (but they did not need rain as much)
0.33 Birmingham Airport
0.88 Anniston Airport
0.35 Shelby County Airport (home of NWS/BHM)
0.81 Mobile Regional Airport
1.62 Montgomery/Dannelly Field
1.61 Tuscaloosa Airport
0.67 Pinson
0.60 Dothan
1.09 Coker (West Tuscaloosa County, with 4.83 month to date)
0.29 Lookout Mountain near Collinsville (5.55 Month to date)
0.32 Weaver
2.50 Springville
0.98 Pleasant Grove
1.23 Downtown Trussville (1.81 2-day) (Chuck Biddinger)
1.42 South Trussville (Bill Murray)

OTHER NOTES
…..Tired ole thermometer did not get out of the 70s Sunday at Anniston, Huntsville and Muscle Shoals! After all the day-after-day 90s and even some 100+
…..Up to three inches of snow was expected over the weekend in Glacier National Park in NW Montana. Have not heard if the forecast was correct.

USA 24 HOUR EXTREMES
104 Bullhead City, Ariz. (probably no report from Death Valley)
27 this morning at Mammoth Lakes, Calif.

A GEOGRAPHY NOTE
The good ole USA covers 3,539,341 square miles and the highest point is Mt. McKinley in Alaska at 20,320 feet. Compare that with Alabama’s highest elevation, Mt. Cheaha at 2,407 feet! (My second love is photography and geography)

Thanks to Brandon Harris for this image… he writes:

“This was taken last Saturday during En Fuego in Verbena. Right after Pillar started their set the skies opened up and sent everyone scurrying for their tents and vehicles (except for the die-hard rockers). This shot was of a storm that had past by about 45 minutes before the hardest of the rain hit our location.

Thanks!

Brandon from Jacksonville”

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING: We continue to see some scattered light rain on radar this morning, but the sky should become partly sunny this afternoon [...] - [Read more]

DANIELLE: Let’s get her out of the way first. The storm is weakening and slowing down as it moves over colder water about 500 miles south of Newfoundland.

HURRICANE EARL: Earl strengthened through the evening and overnight and is now approaching major hurricane status as it passes just north of St. Martin and Angulla. Air Force reconnaissance found a central pressure of 970 mb just after 10 p.m. and a max flight level wind of 96 knots, or right at 95 mph at the surface.

Earl will pass just north of the British Virgin Islands Monday afternoon with top winds over 115 mph. Strong tropical storm force winds will be felt in these locations, but hopefully not hurricane force, since they will be on the weaker western side of the storm. Still, hurricane warnings are in effect all through the northern Leewards, including the British Virgin Islands, but not the U.S. Virgin Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

Earl is going to give folks along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and in New England some sleepless nights this week. We can’t write this one off just year for sure, but the models Sunday evening were in pretty good agreement that it would miss the U.S. East Coast. Lots of aircraft missions into Earl on Monday, including the Gulfstream IV flying at high altitude to help feed the best steering current data into the models.

FIONA? The disturbance over the eastern Atlantic still has not gotten its act together, but it could at any time. The models are in agreement that this system will follow a track similar to Earl, taking it close to the islands before recurving it east of the East Coast. This one is a little close to Earl, and that is likely hurting its development right now.

Strong storms continue over West Alabama tonight.

Overall, coverage of showers and storms over the state has gone downhill over the past couple of hours, but not over West Alabama.

Torrential rains are lined up all along I-59 from I-359 to the Mercedes Plant at this hour. There is some lightning, but not as much as you would expect given the intensity of the echoes. Some of the strongest storms are near West Blocton, and will affect the interstate all the way up to the AL-5/US-11 exit.

More storms are over Autauga and Lowndes Counties…they will be moving toward Bibb County as well.

There is some heavy rain over Lamar County in West Alabama as well. And over Sumter and Greene Counties, heading back toward Pickens County.

Thanks to Stephen Pridmore for this picture taken behind Old Cahaba in Helena this afternoon…

Rainfall coverage has not been as widespread as I would have liked or expected today, but some folks over the eastern half of the area have gotten some decent rains.

Brenda Varner in Springville now reporting 2.47 inches of rain with a cool 70F.

But, heavier showers and storms continue to form in the boundary between the rain cooled air to the east and warmer air in the partial sunshine to the west.

The battle ground for this activity extends from western Jefferson through Walker into eastern Marion and Winston Counties at this hour.

John Talbot reports increasing lightning and thunder from his location in Concord/Hueytown. He has 77F.

It did make it to 81F at the Birmingham Airport today.

Heavy storms were over West Alabama’s Green County. These will be lifting into Pickens County. Additional showers and storms were forming over Butler, Lowndes and Dallas Counties in South Central Alabama. These cells will lift north northwestward over the next few hours into places like Bibb County.

Showers over East Central Alabama’s Clay, Coosa and Tallapoosa Counties will lift into Shelby, Talladega, Jefferson and St. Clair Counties later.

Some heavy weather over the Georgia north of Columbus will affect extreme eastern Alabama later.

The band of rain continues over North, Northeast and East Central Alabama at this hour. Some drier air aloft on the western periphery of this band has allowed enough heating to destabilize the atmosphere and some heavier showers with a little thunder have developed over western Jefferson County and moved into Walker County.

More heavy showers were developing over Clay county. They will move into Talladega and St. Clair Counties in a bit.

Temperatures were in the 80s in the areas that didn’t see rain this morning, 70s in the rain areas. 2.30 inches of rain in Springville at Brenda Varner’s place. Brenda was reporting 71F before 3 p.m. JB had over two inches of rain in northeast Trussville.

Mainly for our Georgia readers:

Does anyone know where to find the current weather data + high/low temperatures and precipitation for Brasstown Bald, Georgia’s highest elevation. There is a U.S. Forest Service presence there but I do not know about weather data.

This link is for Blairsville…

….. http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=GABL&report=c

But want to know Brasstown Bald!

Hurricane Earl is about 240 miles east southeast of the British Virgin Islands early this afternoon. The outer rainbands are approaching the islands of Antigua and Barbuda.

Earl will come very close to Barbuda and the British Virgin Islands tonight as it continues on a west northwesterly course. At its closest approach to Barbuda, the western eyewall may be over the island just after midnight CDT tonight and near the island of Anguilla around 8 a.m. CDT. By then, it will be a category two hurricane with top winds of 105 mph or higher.

Next up will be the northernmost British Virgin Islands, and Earl may be a category three hurricane by then. The center should pass just a little north of there about midafternoon, and the islands may well find themselves in the western eyewall as well.

This is a very dangerous situation and residents in the islands must pay close attention to the progress of this increasingly dangerous storm.

By Tuesday morning, it will be clear of the islands and heading northwest. Top winds by then will probably be over 120 mph, keeping Earl a dangerous category three hurricane.

Then things get interesting for the U.S. East Coast. By Wednesday morning, the center will be about 800 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, SC, heading northwest. It will likely reach peak intensity of 125 mph as it begins to turn north northwest and north. By Thursday morning, it will be 800 miles east of Savannah and heading north at nearly 20 mph. Top winds should still be over 120mph.

By Friday morning, it will be east of the Chesapeake, moving north and drawing a bead on eastern Massachusetts. It could impact Cape Cod, Nantucket and Hyannis.

Earl will make for some nervous storm watching this week from folks from the Carolinas to New England this week.

DISTURBANCE 97L: The disturbance in the eastern Atlantic lost some of convection this morning but still is fairly well defined. It is barely below tropical depression status, and that could come at any time. The GFS has picked up on the idea of this becoming Fiona and has it following in the footsteps of its older brother Earl, moving just north of the islands Wednesday night and carrying it well east of the Carolinas by next Sunday.

We are fortunate at this point as to how the steering currents have setup and hopefully they will stay that way so this trio of tropical trouble can stay east of the U.S.

A band of moderate to heavy rain continues from Decatur to Hanceville to Oneonta to Lincoln to Lineville.

Jb reported heavy rain downtown Trussville a short while ago with some street flooding.

The heaviest rain is near Ashland and Lineville. Some more heavy rain is between Springville and Ashville.

The individual showers are moving northwest. The band is spreading slowly northward

Some lighter showers are over West Alabama.

A little take off on the name of that familiar hymn seems appropriate for some folks across Alabama on  this Sunday morning as a general rain is falling in a curved band wrapping around the low which is situated near the Alabama/Mississippi border around Meridian.

Overall the band is generally stationary, perhaps lifting slowly to the north and northeast. The coverage and intensity of the rainfall in increasing. This means a general soaking rain for much of North Central and East Central Alabama for the next few hours.

Rainfall rates are generally around one quarter inch per hour in the moderate rain with up to a half inch or more per hour in the heavier showers.

No thunder involved yet, although I would expect to see some eventually.

TROPICS
Earl is now a hurricane. It continues to strengthen and will affect the northern Leeward Island tonight and early Monday. Hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for parts of the Leeward Islands. The new forecast track carries it east of the North Carolina Outer Banks then menaces Cape Cod Friday.

Danielle is weakening and heading out to sea.

The disturbance over the eastern Atlantic is less organized this morning. The GFS has been consistently saying this one wouldn’t amount to anything, and it could be right. The NHC still gives it an 80% chance of becoming a topical depression in the next 48 hours.

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here. Forecast appears to be pretty much on track as Central Alabama is looking at probably the coolest day this month thanks to clouds and rain. Alabamians [...] - [Read more]

No,  they are not the stars of the latest romantic comedy from Universal.  They are our current tropical headliners, playing the North Atlantic.

Hurricane Danielle passed well east of Bermuda tonight and is curving out to sea, courtesy of a nice weakness in the ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic.   Dani has weakened to 105  mph now.  Hopefully, the door will not close before our next system, now Tropical Storm Earl, makes his exit through the same doorway.

But Earl is threatening the northern Leewards.  The storm is less than 300 miles east of the islands now.  It will become a hurricane on Sunday and  pass very close to the northernmost islands overnight.  Hurricane force winds will affect some of the Leeward Islands late tonight.  Tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches and hurricane warnings are in effect as far west as the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

It appears that earl will already be making the turn to the northwest as it deals a glancing blow to the islands.  By Wednesday, it should become a major hurricane and by Thursday morning, find itself midway between Jacksonville, FL and Bermuda. menacing the Carolinas.  the eventual threat to the mid-Atlantic or Northeast is outside the time constraints of the current NHC forecast, but my gut feeling is that Earl will curve out to sea like Danielle.  But it will make for some nervous moments along the East Coast in the week ahead.

DISTURBANCE 97L:  The system over the eastern Atlantic has shown a dramatic increase in convection and a tropical depression will likely have formed by morning.  It should intensify like its predecessors Danielle and Earl and be named Fiona later today.   Will it threaten the East Coast?  Looks like it might, but hopefully it will recurve out to sea as well.  It will be an interesting week leading up to Labor Day.

Danielle will be passing well east of Bermuda tonight.  The hurricane has weakened a little.  It is no threat to land.

Earl is still a tropical storm with top winds of 60 mph. It is moving rapidly westward. It could affect the northern Leeward Islands starting tomorrow night. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leewards around Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

The disturbance over 1,700 miles east of the islands in the eastern Atlantic continues to get better organized and could become a tropical depression soon. It is likely to be Fiona eventually, perhaps as soon as tonight.

A broad band of showers extends from Marion to Pickens Counties in the west through Walker, Fayette and Tuscaloosa Counties  into Blount and St. Clair Counties over to Talladega, Tallapoosa, Chambers and Lee Counties in the east.

The highest concentration of showers extended from near Talladega to near Opelika.

Not seeing any lightning yet, but some of the tops are approaching 30,000 feet, so it probably won’t be long.

The showers are increasing in intensity and coverage slowly.

Showers and a few storms will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and will likely increase overnight tonight.  Keeping our fingers crossed for some beneficial rains on Sunday across much of the area.

Visible satellite imagery shows a reasonably well defined cloud mass with a weak surface low off the Louisiana coast. Surface observations show a center south of Abbeville-Lafayette area of Louisiana. Strongest wind appears to be to the east of the low center where sustained wind of 25 mph along with gusts to 31 mph are occurring. Radar showed rain and thunderstorms occurring from just east of the low all the way to Apalachicola, FL, from Interstate 10 to the near Gulf coastal waters. This is definitely not a good weekend for beach going!

Some of the showers had spread into Southwest Alabama stretching from just east of Monroeville, AL, to east of Hattiesburg., MS. Most of the rain and showers were moving northwesterly with a slow edging northward of the whole mass of rain.

Precipitable water values were on the rise especially across South Alabama and Northwest Florida. All of this setting the stage for what could be a fairly unusual rainy, cloudy day for Central Alabama on Sunday.

The GFS model continued to present a fairly wet day for Central Alabama for tomorrow, but this naturally will depend on the future motion and path of this weak surface low. I have to admit that the precipitation shield I see on the regional radar is much larger than I expected to see for today – with a great deal of coverage. If the low does move far enough north by tomorrow to impact us, the combination of rain and clouds is very likely to keep the afternoon highs in the lower 80s.

-Brian-

I have been following Chris Brogan since I read his book Trust Agents. I read his blog daily.

Imagine my surprise this morning when the headline on his most recent blog post was “Birmingham Alabama is Magical.”

Chris visited the city recently and gave us some rave reviews.

I am an even bigger fan this morning.

TROPICAL TOTE BOARD: Five named storms so far in the North Atlantic basin this hurricane season. Two of them have become hurricanes; one has achieved major hurricane status.

GULF LOW: The NHC mentions a low chance that the low along the Louisiana coast could become a tropical depression today before moving onshore. Don’t look for that to happen, but the low is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the northern Gulf Coast.

DANIELLE:   Danielle was downgraded to a category two hurricane this morning and now features top winds of 110 mph.   The center is 330 miles southeast of Bermuda at late morning.  The hurricane is now moving north northeast at 9 mph as it begins to recurve.   By Tuesday, it will lose its tropical characteristics and then lose its way, meandering northwestward back toward Greenland.   Bermuda has missed the worst from Danielle.

FROM THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE:   “Winds and squally showers will increase this afternoon as Danielle passes about 250nm to our east. Large swells have also developed along South Shore. Conditions are expected to ease overnight, then high pressure, building in from the northwest on Sunday, brings settled conditions for the start of the week.”

EARL:  Our eyes now turn to the second in our current string of storms.   Earl is 850 miles east southeast of St. Martin in the Virgin Islands at late morning, moving west northwest at 18 mph.  Top winds are up to 60 mph.   The official forecast carries Earl close to the northern Leeward Islands around Antigua and the Virgin Islands on Monday.  Then by Thursday, Earl will be a major hurricane and be roaming somewhere between  the Bahamas and Bermuda, so everyone will be nervously waiting its future moves.  The Hurricane Hunters will investigate Earl tonight.

FIONA? A large percentage of the hurricanes that form in the eastern Atlantic recurve out to sea. But the more hurricanes that line up, the worse our odds become. Don’t look now, but the embryonic Fiona is likely to be classified as a tropical depression today over the eastern Atlantic. There is not a clear picture of what will happen to the eventual Fiona. It could quite possibly follow Danielle and Earl out to sea. Or it could threaten the islands of the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast.

DON’T LOOK NOW: But this train of disturbances off of Africa will continue for the next few weeks, and we will continue to see more hurricanes. Gaston is probably waiting in the wings in one of the strong disturbances coming across the African continent right now.

As Hurricane Katrina intensified rapidly and reached Category Five status that fateful Sunday five years ago today, forecaster Robert Ricks at the National Weather Service in Slidell decided it was time to issue the dreaded catastrophic damage statement.

Some thought it was a joke.

Some thought it was overhyped.

Many didn’t listen.

It turned out be very prophetic and unfortunately, very true.

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here. Looks like Central Alabama is headed for a cloudy and rainy Sunday thanks to a small disturbance located over Southeast Louisiana this morning. But for today, [...] - [Read more]

TROPICAL TOTE BOARD:  Five named storms so far in the North Atlantic basin this hurricane season.  Two of them have become hurricanes; one has achieved major hurricane status.

DANIELLE:  Major hurricane Danielle is about 350 miles southeast of Bermuda tonight  Top winds are around 135 mph, meaning the storm is a category four hurricane.  Tropical storm force winds extend out 150 miles to the northwest of the center.  Danielle is already recurving to the north and northeast and the center will pass east of the island, keeping the worst weather to the east.  Danielle will slowly weaken over the next 24 hours as it turns to the northeast.

FROM THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE:  The forecast… Winds and waves will continue increasing overnight as Danielle continues to move north. Saturday will have strong winds, gale force gusts, occasional showers, some heavy, and a chance of thunder as Danielle passes approximately 200nm to our east. Large swells will develop, especially along South Shore. Conditions begin to ease on Sunday.

EARL:  The second of our current named storms is 800 miles east southeast of the Virgin Islands.  Top winds are 50 mph.  Earl is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday and a major hurricane next week.  It appears that Earl will follow Danielle into the weakness that the first hurricane will be leaving, but it will pass within 100 miles of the Virgin Islands on Monday, so folks in the northern Leeward Islands are understandably nervous.

FIONA:  A large percentage of the hurricanes that form in the eastern Atlantic recurve out to sea.  But the more hurricanes that line up, the worse our odds become.  Don’t look now, but the embryonic Fiona is likely to be classified as a tropical depression today over the eastern Atlantic.  There is not a clear picture of what will happen to the eventual Fiona.  It could quite possibly follow Danielle and Earl out to sea.

GASTON:   The disturbance about 400 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands will become a depression today and likely Tropical Storm Gaston shortly thereafter.   With each new storm, the chance that the steering pattern will change and we will have to deal with a threat to the U.S.

DON’T LOOK NOW:  But this train of disturbances off of Africa will continue for the next few weeks, and we will continue to see more hurricanes.

Thanks to Chris Foxhall for these images… he writes…

“James,

Here are a few pics of the sky in Pea Ridge that I thought you may enjoy. There is a large storm in Montevallo moving northwest towards us, but it seems like the cold front has it stalled. The temps have dropped 10 degrees in the last 45 minutes. The sun is setting as the storm moves in, which gave the clouds multiple colors.

I hope you enjoy them. Have a great weekend.”

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 658 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL BETWEEN PHELAN AND HOLLY POND. THE
STORM RESPONSIBLE WAS DRIFTING NORTH…AND WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE DUCK CREEK BASIN.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WALTER.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

Storms are moving slowly to the northwest, and will die down quickly after the sun sets this evening. The stongest storms at 6:20 are over Bibb and Chilton Counties, with lots of lightning and very heavy rain from Brent and Centreville down to Isabella. Other scattered storms are east of Sylacauga, north of Oneonta, and south of Weiss Lake in Cherokee County.

Some rather strong storms have fired up this afternoon in scattered pockets across the state… some of the heavier storms are moving through Hoover/Pelham/Helena/Alabaster in Shelby County, and over parts of Talladega and Clay Counties between the city of Talladega and Mellow Valley. These storms are moving to the west/northwest, around the broad tropical low that is near the Louisiana coast.

The heavier storms are producing heavy rain and gusty winds; they will all die off once the sun goes down later this evening…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD: A surface low pressure center is just off the Louisiana coast this afternoon, with thunderstorms near the center over the Gulf of [...] - [Read more]

There is a large batch of heavy tropical thunderstorms south of the Louisiana/Mississippi Coast today, and although the environment is not favorable for significant tropical cyclone development, this little area of low pressure is packing a punch.

Some offshore observations show a south wind sustained between 20 and 30 miles per hour on the east side of the surface low. This probably won’t even grow strong enough to get the highlighted/hatched area from the National Hurricane Center, but the weather down on the coast from Pensacola across Alabama and into Mississippi and Louisiana will be a lot like it was when the remnants of T.D. Five kept passing through.

A strong ridge of high pressure in the northeastern US will help steer this weak surface low northwest into western Mississippi tomorrow. The computer models have gotten more aggressive with rain amounts and cloud cover around west Alabama for the weekend. In fact, the NAM is now suggesting even Birmingham has a chance of 1/2 to 1″ of rain tomorrow.

The ridge on the east coast will force most of the moisture into Mississippi and western Alabama on Sunday afternoon.

Needless to say, some adjustments to the forecast may be necessary through the next 24 hours as we try to get a handle on where the rain is headed.

Here’s the latest Seven Day Discussion.

Follow me on Twitter! @simpson3340

-Jason

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY: You might see a shower or two on radar this afternoon, but they should be few and far between as relatively [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to Sgt. Andy Norris of the Tuscaloosa County Sheriff’s department for this image captured this evening in Northport…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. RIGHT NOW: A cluster of showers has formed over Calhoun and Cleburne counties of East Alabama this afternoon, but otherwise 98 percent of the state [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Vic Bell for this image captured this morning from his place atop Lookout Mountain, near Collinsville…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES: A calm weather pattern continues for not only Alabama, but much of the nation, as dry, continental air is the story. The [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to to Greg Barrett for these images… he writes:

“Hello James,
I hope all is well there. Please find some pictures attached from Maui. They are some of the sunset here last night. I hope you enjoy. In the sunset pics, you can see an island to the left. It is the island of Lanai. It is the driest island of the chain – only getting average rainfall of a little over 33 inchaes per year. Apparently Maui shields the rain from it somehow. Anyway – enjoy – and if you use any of them, let me know so I can look out for them. ALOHA!

Greg Barrett
N5BDJ”

Thanks to one of our Twitter followers for this image of the sunset this evening along the Florida Gulf Coast at Panama City Beach…

Thanks to one of our viewers for this video of a dust devil in Pell City recorded this afternoon…

TD7 is now Tropical Storm Earl…

WTNT32 KNHC 252029
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

…EARL…THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 520 MI…840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE
OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. TWO IN A ROW: Sure looks like Birmingham will stay below 90 for the second day in a row. Statistical guidance form computer models has [...] - [Read more]