Weather Warnings

Storm Prediction Center

Total news: 2991
Last news: November 18, 2008 08:00:11

MD 2394 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS NW INDIANA.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NW INDIANA.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 180706Z - 181200Z

INITIALLY WAVY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW -- WITH EMBEDDED RATES 1-2
INCHES/HOUR...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT WWD ALONG INDIANA
SHORELINE DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS.  BAND ALSO SHOULD ASSUME
STRAIGHTER AND MORE MERIDIONAL AXIAL ORIENTATION...RESULTING IN MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH ECHO TRAINING LIKELY OVER

MD 2393 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 160506Z - 160700Z

CONVECTION INCREASING OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY
BRUSH FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE -- PER LATEST

MD 2392 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 934...935...936... FOR PARTS OF ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND/NJ/DEL/ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ERN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND/NJ/DEL/ERN VA AND
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 934...935...936...

VALID 152315Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
934...935...936...CONTINUES.

ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
TORNADO WATCHES 934/935/936.

WW 0937 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0937 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 937 TORNADO CT MA NY RI CW 152350Z - 160700Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CONNECTICUT
       MASSACHUSETTS
       SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
       RHODE ISLAND
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WORCESTER MASSACHUSETTS TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ISLIP NEW
YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 934...WW 935...WW 936...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS/OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE LWR

WW 0935 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 935

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..SPC..11/15/08

ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 935 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079-
083-085-091-093-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-
163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195-152040-

NC 
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 935 TORNADO NC CW 151825Z - 160100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
GOLDSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 934...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.  WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE WATCH THIS

WW 0936 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0936 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 936 TORNADO CT MA NJ NY PA 151955Z - 160200Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       PARTS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT
       SMALL PART OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
       PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
       PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
       PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALLENTOWN PENNSYLVANIA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 934...WW 935...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER ERN PA.  WITH STRONG

WW 0934 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0934 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 934 TORNADO DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 151725Z - 160000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
       DELAWARE
       MUCH OF MARYLAND
       ALL BUT NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
       PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
       MUCH OF EASTERN VIRGINIA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
TRENTON NEW JERSEY TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH HILL
VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS
APPROACHING MID ATLANTIC STATES WHERE AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO WARM

MD 2390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NC...SC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 151729Z - 151830Z

SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
ZONE ACROSS CNTRL SC.  LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS
FEATURE WELL WITH AN ELONGATED LINE OF DEEPENING CONVECTION THAT NOW
EXTENDS INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF NC...WEST OF SOP.  ALTHOUGH THE FLOW
HAS VEERED SOME ACROSS THIS REGION THINNING CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED

MD 2389 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR VA...DE...NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...DE...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 151607Z - 151700Z

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRIMARY ASCENT NOW IDENTIFIED BY
SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION FROM AUGUSTA COUNTY VA...SWWD INTO
CALDWELL COUNTY NC.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN BOTH
DEPTH AND INTENSITY AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUOYANCY

MD 2387 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 933... FOR NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 933...

VALID 150910Z - 151015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 933 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 933 CONTINUES UNTIL 13Z...WITH A CONSIDERABLE
TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK INCREASING IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA.

MD 2386 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 932...933... FOR EASTERN SC AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SC AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 932...933...

VALID 150810Z - 150945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 932...933...CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCHES 932/933 CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN SC AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC UNTIL 11Z/13Z RESPECTIVELY...WITH A RECENTLY
ISSUED WFO EXTENSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST VA. A DISTINCT RISK FOR

MD 2385 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 931... FOR FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 931...

VALID 150723Z - 150830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 931 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 931 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT/BY 08Z.
THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW...AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
UNLIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL.

WW 0933 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0933 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 933 TORNADO NC CW 150525Z - 151300Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1225 AM UNTIL 800 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE
NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY NORTH
CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 931...WW 932...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF THE SC CSTL
PLNS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY
FORMING ON NRN SIDE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH SW-NE
WARM FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.  FORCING FOR ASCENT...DEEP
SHEAR...AND LOW LVL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WW LATER THIS
MORNING AS FL PANHANDLE UPR VORT ACCELERATES NEWD.  COUPLED WITH

MD 2384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 932... FOR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 932...

VALID 150453Z - 150700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 932 CONTINUES.

ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN SC...AND SHOULD
SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN NC OVERNIGHT.  NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

MD 2383 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 931... FOR THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/SRN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/SRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 931...

VALID 150419Z - 150545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 931 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE
WW.

WW 0932 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0932 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 932 TORNADO NC SC CW 150325Z - 151100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
       EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 931...

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NOW OVER CNTRL SC
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NNE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.  STRONGEST
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO INTERSECTION OF THAT BAND WITH
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNE FROM NEAR CAE TO NEAR FLO.  AREA

MD 2382 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SERN MS/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN AL/NWRN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MS/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN
AL/NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 150215Z - 150415Z

STORMS CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS ERN MS AND W CENTRAL/NWRN AL. 
AN ASSOCIATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD

WW 0931 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0931 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

MD 2381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SERN AL/SWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 150011Z - 150215Z

INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GULF WILL SPREAD ONSHORE INTO
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND ACROSS THE NERN GULF...WITH THE

WW 931 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 150035Z - 150800Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
       PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
       SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
       COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY GEORGIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN NUMBER/STRENGTH DURING THE PAST
90 MINS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEX...AHEAD OF EJECTING/DEAMPLIFYING
UPR VORT.  DESPITE APPROACH OF THE VORT...LOW LVL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
WW AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME TEMPORAL VEERING IN THE PAST 2-3
HRS...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PASSAGE OF DOWNSTREAM UPR IMPULSE NOW IN

MD 2380 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN SC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN GA/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142317Z - 150115Z

A SLOW/MODEST INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE BY MID-EVENING.

SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...S OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA

MD 2379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142028Z - 142130Z

...CORRECTED FOR BAD GRAPHIC...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SWRN GA INTO EXTREME
ECNTRL AL...LARGELY DUE TO SWLY FEED OF MORE BUOYANT AIR ACROSS
STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY

MD 2378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 142017Z - 142115Z

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SWRN GA INTO EXTREME
ECNTRL AL...LARGELY DUE TO SWLY FEED OF MORE BUOYANT AIR ACROSS
STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME OVER SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY
ALSO APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY A SUBTLE BUT SIGNIFICANT MVC NEAR
WHEATLAND/YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES IN ECNTRL AL.  BOTH VIS AND RADAR

MD 2377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND CENTRAL GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST AL AND CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140943Z - 141115Z

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST AL SHOULD
REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A ROUGHLY WSW-ENE ORIENTED

MD 2376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 140905Z - 141100Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

ONSHORE-MOVING TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MODEST/PERIODIC LOW LEVEL

MD 2375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 AM CST THU NOV 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 131157Z - 131330Z

AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST AFTER DAYBREAK. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL EXTENT AND THE
CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

MD 2374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN LA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120846Z - 121015Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST.
HOWEVER...THESE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

MD 2373 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS SE TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 120540Z - 120845Z

INCREASINGLY DENSE AND ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MID-UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN...INCLUDING HOU METRO AREA.  RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR
WILL BE COMMON IN STRONGEST CORES EMBEDDED IN THIS BAND.  SOME
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT

MD 2372 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS S TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120030Z - 120230Z

TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS
MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN -- FROM ROUGHLY I-37 NEWD TOWARD
CORRIDOR BETWEEN HOU-SAT.  STRONGER TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

MD 2369 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR ERN SD...SRN MN...FAR NE IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SRN MN...FAR NE IA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 111251Z - 111645Z

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD
ACROSS ERN SD AND SRN MN THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ICE
ACCUMULATION RATES OF ABOUT FIVE TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER RATES CONCENTRATED IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
BANDS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

MD 2368 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 930... FOR CENTRAL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 930...

VALID 110725Z - 110830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 930 CONTINUES.

MOST OF WW IS LIKELY TO EXPIRE AT 08Z...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT FOR NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL WW.  SOME EXTENSION IN TIME/AREA WILL NEED CONSIDERATION

MD 2367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST  TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110723Z - 110900Z

A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE TX COAST NEAR HOUSTON-GALVESTON FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE THREAT MAY EXPAND NWD INTO PARTS OF EAST TX BUT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

MD 2366 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 930... FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 930...

VALID 110433Z - 110630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 930 CONTINUES.

ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER PARTS OF WW AREA
ALONG AND S OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...UNFAVORABLE STORM MODE AND
GENERAL DECREASING CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TENDENCIES HAVE BEEN

WW 0930 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0930 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

MD 2365 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...FAR SWRN MN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...FAR SWRN MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 110119Z - 110515Z

FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET/ WILL LIKELY EXPAND NWD
FROM ERN NEB/W-CNTRL IA. ICE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN A
3-HR PERIOD APPEAR PROBABLE.

FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WRN

WW 930 TORNADO TX 110040Z - 110800Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DALLAS TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 929...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF SJT
TO WEST OF DFW.  THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASE OVER WATCH
AREA.  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF

MD 2364 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 929... FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...SWRN OK.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...

VALID 110015Z - 110145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.

REMAINDER WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.
 THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY WHICH SHOULD COVER

MD 2363 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 929... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...

VALID 102147Z - 102245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.

ENVIRONMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 929.  

WW 0929 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 929

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..PETERS..11/10/08

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...FWD...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 929 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC033-141-102040-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COTTON               TILLMAN             

MD 2362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 101859Z - 102030Z

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL EXTENT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

WW 929 TORNADO OK TX 101825Z - 110100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
       CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF WICHITA
FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TX WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE ERODED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NW TX.  THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP AND CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING THUS

MD 2361 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 101733Z - 101830Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.

LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GREATER CLEARING
OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KINNEY
COUNTY TO SHACKELFORD COUNTY...WHICH ALSO IS THE WRN EXTENT OF

MD 2360 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE TX COAST

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 101503Z - 101600Z

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR A BRIEF INLAND TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

REGIONAL RADARS COMBINED WITH SURFACE/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL

MD 2359 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR CNTRL ND...CNTRL AND NERN SD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST THU NOV 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...CNTRL AND NERN SD

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 070032Z - 070500Z

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING...WITH RATES FALLING AOB 1 IN/HR. HOWEVER...CONTINUING
VERY STRONG NWLY WINDS /SUSTAINED FROM AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH/ WILL
MAINTAIN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MD 2358 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR CNTRL DAKOTAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CST THU NOV 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 061838Z - 062245Z

SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR...LOCALLY UP TO 2 IN/HR AT
TIMES. THIS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUCTION WITH VERY STRONG NWLY WINDS
/SUSTAINED FROM 25 TO 40 MPH/...CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MD 2357 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 928... FOR SRN MO AND NRN AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 928...

VALID 061053Z - 061200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 928
CONTINUES.

WW 928 MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 14Z AS OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MD 2356 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN ND AND W/NWRN SD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN ND AND W/NWRN
SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 060933Z - 061330Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH 12-15Z FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN ND...AND EXTEND INTO
W/NWRN SD.  ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL ND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WWD AND SHOULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. 
LOCATIONS ON THE ERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAY HAVE A MIXTURE

WW 0928 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0928 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 928 SEVERE TSTM AR MO 060745Z - 061400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHERN ARKANSAS
       SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF VICHY
MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 927...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN EXTENDING FROM SW MO INTO E CNTRL OK
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE AT 25-30 KTS...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WITHIN IT MOVE NE AT 45 KTS.  ALTHOUGH LINE WILL ENCOUNTER
DIMINISHING LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS POTENT /90+ KT/ MID LVL SPEED MAX OVER

MD 2355 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 927... FOR SRN MO/NRN AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO/NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 927...

VALID 060718Z - 060745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 927
CONTINUES.

NEW WW BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 927...ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
MO AND POTENTIALLY NRN AR.

MD 2354 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 926... FOR EASTERN OK/SOUTHWEST MO INTO WESTERN AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/SOUTHWEST MO INTO WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 926...

VALID 060533Z - 060630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 926
CONTINUES.

LOCALLY EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 924 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z.
WITH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 926 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z...A WFO

WW 0927 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0927 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 927 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 060545Z - 061000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
       EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 926...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OK WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MO/AR.
 INSTABILITY IS BECOMING QUITE WEAK.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL

MD 2353 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 924... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 924...

VALID 060309Z - 060415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 924 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 924 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL/WIND
GUSTS. A LOCAL WFO EXTENSION OR WATCH REPLACEMENT WILL LIKELY BE

MD 2352 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 925... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB/WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS/NORTHWEST
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 925...

VALID 060108Z - 060245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 925
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 925 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH CONTINUED RISKS OF
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT THINKING

WW 0926 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 926

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..GUYER..11/06/08

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 926 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC007-143-060240-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               WASHINGTON          

WW 926 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 060035Z - 060600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
       EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
       SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
       EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 924...WW 925...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD NWRN ARKANSAS/SWRN MISSOURI IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW LEVEL

MD 2351 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 924... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
AND AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 924...

VALID 052329Z - 060100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 924 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 924 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF FAR SOUTHEAST

WW 0925 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0925 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUE YET

WW 925 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 052305Z - 060600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHWEST IOWA
       EASTERN KANSAS
       NORTHWEST MISSOURI
       SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 505 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENISON
IOWA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 924...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS IS INTENSIFYING OVER EASTERN KS AND
EASTERN NEB...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IA AND
NORTHWEST MO THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT

WW 0924 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 924

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MEAD..11/05/08

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 924 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-079-099-125-133-173-191-205-207-
052240-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MD 2349 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN ND...N CNTRL SD...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...N CNTRL SD...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052051Z - 052245Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
PERSIST FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO SERN ND AND WRN MN. FARTHER
S...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

WW 924 TORNADO KS OK 052020Z - 060400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
       MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRY
LINE ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 1000
J/KG...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.  TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
00Z AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IMPROVES WITH DEEPENING OF SURFACE WAVE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG JET MAX.

MD 2350 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR E-CNTRL AND SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 052055Z - 052200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL SD /W

MD 2348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 051837Z - 052000Z

ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH INITIATION LIKELY BY 20-21Z.  A WW WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO
THAT TIME.

COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SRN

MD 2347 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 051505Z - 051630Z

AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 1630Z.

12Z MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS IN
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR...AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR
JET CORE WILL FINALLY DIG INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD FAIRLY DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...INTO THE PLAINS...SUPPORTING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AND...A DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH...WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  WHILE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION MAY BEGIN TO

MD 2346 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS NRN UT...EXTREME SWRN WY...EXTREME SERN ID.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN UT...EXTREME SWRN WY...EXTREME SERN
ID.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021641Z - 021915Z

TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
NWRN UT...AS FRONT MOVES EWD 30-35 KT ACROSS SALT LAKE REGION AND
INTO WASATCH RANGE. STG NONCONVECTIVE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA
WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON BY CONVECTIVE GUSTS.  THIS MAY YIELD
DAMAGE IN SOME LOCALES...ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN SLOPES WITH GREATEST

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR JET CORE WILL FINALLY DIG INLAND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD... CONTRIBUTING
TO A DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
PLAINS...AND SUPPORTING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST.  AND... SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. 

MD 2345 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923... FOR ERN OK...WCNTRL AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923...

VALID 312226Z - 312330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923
CONTINUES.

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IF SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING

WW 0923 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 923

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BOTHWELL..10/31/08

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 923 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC029-047-051-059-071-083-097-105-113-115-125-127-131-141-149-
312140-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

WW 923 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 311935Z - 010200Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS
       PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...HEATING HAD REMOVED MUCH OF CINH WRN AR/ERN OK WITH
MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG THIS AREA.  WITH SMALL UPPER LOW DROPPING SSEWD
FROM SWRN MO...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE  BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WATCH.  WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MD 2343 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NERN PA/NRN NJ/CNTRL/ERN NY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA/NRN NJ/CNTRL/ERN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 281740Z - 282145Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 1-2 INCH PER HOUR INITIALLY EXPECTED NEAR
THE POCONOS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOCALIZED RATES OF 3
INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RATES AND AREA
OF COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...SPREADING NWD INTO NERN PA/S AND CNTRL NY...THEN INTO THE

MD 2342 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN NC THROUGH SE VA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 252044Z - 252215Z

MOSTLY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN NC THROUGH SE VA
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY MARGINAL AND A WW WILL NOT LIKELY BE
NEEDED.