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Storm Prediction Center Total news: 197
Last news: 9 hours 2 minutes ago
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| SPC MD 1788
9 hours 2 minutes agoMD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR WRN N TX...SWRN OK INTO E CNTRL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX...SWRN OK INTO E CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...
VALID 030218Z - 030345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS STORMS TRACK SEWD THIS
EVENING. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SFC OBSERVATIONS THE LAST HOUR HAVE LARGELY SHOWED A DECREASE IN
WIND GUSTS FROM WRN N TX INTO SWRN OK TO E CNTRL OK...ALTHOUGH
STORMS COULD STILL REMAIN SEVERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD...AIR MASS WILL BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED...EFFECTIVELY ENDING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY BE OVER BY THE WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34710037 34220086 33610098 33120067 32960035 33079930
33819731 35279508 35719445 36279430 36539454 36679510
34710037
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| SPC MD 1786
11 hours 8 minutes agoMD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...
VALID 030012Z - 030215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643
CONTINUES.
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN AND NEAR WW 643...NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM SERN WI
SWWD TO SWRN MO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
INDICATED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND CONFIRMED BY AN INITIAL LOOK AT
THE INCOMING EVENING RAOBS.
WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/LOCALLY-SEVERE
STORMS...EXPECT THREATS FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL TO
CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE BANDS OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WW.
..GOSS.. 09/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...
EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 36399416 36999461 38189457 41009023 41198819 41038756
38848765 36629195 36399416
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| SPC MD 1785
11 hours 21 minutes agoMD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR WRN N TX...SWRN TO N CNTRL OK...SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX...SWRN TO N CNTRL OK...SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...
VALID 022341Z - 030115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 642 AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN
MO NEAR JLN TO GOK IN CNTRL OK TO JUST NW OF CDS IN WRN N TX. STORMS
ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN SERN KS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND HAVE
BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. INTO SWRN MO/NERN OK STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF NERN OK.
FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL OK...A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE OKC
METRO AREA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THEY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COUNTIES MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH ACROSS S CNTRL OK.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33980048 37329475 36769472 35889455 35799452 34419642
32170040 32650043 32920045 33980048
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643
13 hours 33 minutes agoWW 643 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 022145Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MONETT MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 642...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO LOWER MO AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEYS. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS WARM WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL PART SOF
MO AND IL/ AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...WEISS
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| SPC MD 1783
14 hours 34 minutes agoMD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR N AND CNTRL IL...ECNTRL/CNTRL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N AND CNTRL IL...ECNTRL/CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022046Z - 022215Z
...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ALONG WRN/NRN EDGES OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CNTRL IL AND
CNTRL MO AT MID-AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF MID-UPR 80S
TEMPERATURES...LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND NEAR 7 DEG
6.5 C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO
2000 J/KG.
AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE E...ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND GIVEN
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO.
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW DOMINATED STRUCTURES WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..RACY.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...
LAT...LON 38749216 40589096 41668968 41558867 40798838 39948879
38768984 38139073 37849169 38049226 38519233 38749216
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642
14 hours 49 minutes agoWW 642 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 022030Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.
WITH DCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES SWD THRU THE WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.
...HALES
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| SPC MD 1781
16 hours 3 minutes agoMD 1781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR E KS...SW MO...N AND CNTRL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...E KS...SW MO...N AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021917Z - 022115Z
...INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD INTO ERN/SRN KS AT 19Z AND WILL
BEGIN TO OVERTAKE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS SITUATED FROM WELL SE OF
KANSAS CITY TO WCNTRL OK AFTER 21Z. ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL AND
ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR KSLN TO KTOP THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARY NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE FROM
SW MO INTO NCNTRL/WCNTRL OK 21-00Z.
AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO HEAT WITH INHIBITION SLOWLY WEAKENING IN A
NE TO SW FASHION FROM SWRN MO INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS AT MID-AFTERNOON.
MLCAPES WERE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AS LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS CONTINUE BENEATH 7-7.5 C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AMIDST
STRENGTHENING MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IN VICINITY THE COLD
FRONT...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM SWRN MO SWWD TO SERN
KS...NCNTRL/WCNTRL OK 21-00Z.
PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WELL N OF THE INITIATION ZONE. INITIAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR MATURING STORMS TO BECOME QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY
COOL OUTFLOW/FRONT WITH HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..RACY.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37209753 37729701 38229697 38639763 38909789 39119779
39219668 39169597 38929433 38769334 38459291 38029280
37769293 36969436 35849729 35129955 35909984 36459874
37209753
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641 Status Reports
September 2, 2010 08:56:04WW 0641 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BUB TO
20 SSE YKN TO 35 W FSD TO 15 ENE BKX.
..BROYLES..09/02/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-021040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA LYON
MONONA OBRIEN OSCEOLA
PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-021040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD JACKSON LINCOLN
LYON MURRAY NOBLES
PIPESTONE ROCK
NEC011-021-039-043-051-119-167-173-179-021040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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| SPC MD 1780
September 2, 2010 08:16:06MD 1780 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641... FOR SW MN...SE SD...NE NEB AND NW IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN...SE SD...NE NEB AND NW IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641...
VALID 020815Z - 020945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PART OF WW 641
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO THE OMAHA AREA AND ACROSS PARTS OF NW IA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. FURTHER
NORTH...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST IN SW MN WHERE TRAINING CELLS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD.
TWO CONVECTIVE LINES ARE ONGOING ACROSS WW 641. THE SRN MOST LINE
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD SWWD ABOUT 120 STATUTE
MILES INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL JET. THE JET IS HELPING TO CREATE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPORT THE LINE EWD INTO NW IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS EXISTS TO THE NORTH EXTENDING FROM
MINNEAPOLIS SWWD TO NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD. THE SRN END OF THE LINE
IS LOCATED ALONG A WARM FRONT IN SW MN AND IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER
OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED
IN NATURE BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN SW MN ARE ESTIMATED AT 1.5 INCHES WHICH ALONG A
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST SHOULD PROMOTE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE SLOWER MOVING TRAINING CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41869530 41449650 41139830 41239956 41569996 42469904
43369787 44469710 45049601 45009492 44589405 43569428
43009437 42369477 41869530
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641
September 2, 2010 06:15:10WW 641 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 020615Z - 021400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
NORFOLK NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 640...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING IN MOIST AXIS
DOWNSTREAM FROM ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. COMBINATION OF MID LVL COOLING...FAIRLY
RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND 40+ KT WLY MID LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640 Status Reports
September 2, 2010 02:27:06WW 0640 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ABR TO
20 NE ABR.
..GOSS..09/02/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-035-037-039-043-
051-053-057-059-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-091-097-099-101-109-
111-115-125-135-020340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BROOKINGS BROWN BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK
CLAY CODINGTON DAVISON
DAY DEUEL DOUGLAS
GRANT GREGORY HAMLIN
HAND HANSON HUTCHINSON
JERAULD KINGSBURY LAKE
LINCOLN MCCOOK MARSHALL
MINER MINNEHAHA MOODY
ROBERTS SANBORN SPINK
TURNER YANKTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC MD 1777
September 2, 2010 00:00:11MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB/WRN IA/N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012319Z - 020115Z
SLOWLY INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION COULD
EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY ACROSS
SERN NEB AND VICINITY...NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF A NWWD-MOVING
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AS
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING QG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
INCREASE GIVEN EXISTING MODERATE INSTABILITY.
MODERATE/VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR INITIATING STORMS WITHIN
THE WLY MEAN FLOW FIELD TO SHIFT EWD ATOP A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY
STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIMARY THREAT MAY BE LIMITED TO
MARGINAL HAIL.
..GOSS.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 39329855 39999889 40519922 40799898 41369794 42109712
42429575 41809437 40799438 39549587 39329855
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640
September 2, 2010 00:00:05WW 640 SEVERE TSTM SD 012340Z - 020700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL
SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NWD RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZING THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING AND INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...WEISS
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1772
September 1, 2010 02:47:05MD 1772 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639... FOR NERN KS...NRN MO THROUGH ERN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO THROUGH ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639...
VALID 010246Z - 010345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...639...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD
THE ERN BORDERS OF WW 638 AND 639. ANOTHER WW EAST OF CURRENT
WATCHES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN.
LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN WI THROUGH E-CNTRL IA...NWRN MO AND NERN KS
CONTINUES SEWD AT AROUND 20-25 KT. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER. WHILE
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...COVERAGE OF ANY FUTURE SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
SPARSE TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE.
..DIAL.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 41189300 42219229 42789181 43269068 42749062 41099194
39539319 38519612 38259768 38759813 39859414 41189300
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638 Status Reports
September 1, 2010 00:36:04WW 0638 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S DNS TO
30 S RST.
..DIAL..09/01/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-033-037-039-049-
053-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-099-117-121-125-127-
129-131-137-145-153-155-157-159-165-169-171-173-175-181-187-191-
197-010140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON
BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE
BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER
CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLARKE DALLAS
DECATUR FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN FREMONT GREENE
GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON
HARDIN HOWARD JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MILLS MITCHELL
MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SHELBY STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WARREN
WEBSTER WINNESHIEK WRIGHT
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1770
September 1, 2010 00:30:05MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639... FOR NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639...
VALID 010029Z - 010130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...639...CONTINUES.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD INCREASE
FURTHER ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO NWRN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS SUCH...AREA DOWNSTREAM OF WW 638 WILL BE MONITORED FOR WFO
AREAL EXTENSION OR AN ADDITIONAL WW. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF
TSTMS INVOF NEB/IA/MO/KS BORDER.
AS OF 0025Z...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE SWRN
IA/NWRN MO BORDER SWWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD EXIST IN THE NEAR-TERM ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS. HERE...OUTFLOW
FROM WEAKENING TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH ONGOING
TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THIS INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM CLUSTERS AND MAY LEAD
TO FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH. FARTHER NE...A W/E-ORIENTATION OF TSTM
CLUSTERS SHOULD REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AMIDST PW VALUES NEAR 2
IN /PER 00Z TOP RAOB/.
..GRAMS.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38889921 39379782 40219622 40519601 40859449 40969366
40819323 40519319 39919361 39589491 38999648 38579839
38569871 38889921
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 639
August 31, 2010 22:20:03WW 639 SEVERE TSTM KS 312220Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 520
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG. REGION RESIDES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO LARGE-SCALE N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WITH GENERALLY 30-45 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1768
August 31, 2010 22:01:05MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NRN/CNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 312159Z - 312300Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT ALONG SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
DRAPED THROUGH NRN/CNTRL KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH
LEADING TO POTENTIAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z.
RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS INCREASING BENEATH
A CIRRUS CANOPY ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WICHITA TO REPUBLIC
COUNTY AS OF 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF
2500 TO 4000 J/KG/. LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH/WRF-NMM AND NSSL
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE
QLCS/S WILL OCCUR...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL COLD
POOL/FRONTAL INTERACTIONS UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFTS. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39709867 40069718 40189602 40049558 39809553 39339602
38839688 38329895 38060084 38690097 39709867
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
August 31, 2010 22:00:02WW 638 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 312200Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
IOWA
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF FALLS
CITY NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MASON CITY IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000
J/KG. APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 40-45 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE BACKGROUND ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 637 Status Reports
August 31, 2010 06:30:03WW 0637 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MHE
TO 25 W FSD TO 15 SSE BKX TO 20 ENE BKX TO 30 WNW RWF TO 45 ESE
VVV.
..BROYLES..08/31/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC059-119-141-143-149-167-310740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON LYON OBRIEN
OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX
MNC013-015-023-033-063-067-079-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-
117-127-129-133-141-143-145-165-171-310740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH BROWN CHIPPEWA
COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI
LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON
MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER
MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES
PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE
ROCK SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEARNS WATONWAN WRIGHT
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 637
August 31, 2010 06:30:02WW 637 TORNADO IA MN SD 310445Z - 311200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF YANKTON SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 636. WATCH NUMBER 636 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1145 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...FORCED BAND OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT AND A DOWNSTREAM
CORRIDOR OF MORE DISCRETE STORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH NERN SD. ANOMALOUS INFLOW AIR MASS EXISTS
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 J/KG. THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 636 Status Reports
August 31, 2010 02:37:03WW 0636 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RWF TO
35 SSE VVV TO 30 NNE VVV.
..DIAL..08/31/10
ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC023-073-121-149-151-173-310340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA LAC QUI PARLE POPE
STEVENS SWIFT YELLOW MEDICINE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 636
August 31, 2010 00:00:03WW 636 TORNADO MN SD 302345Z - 310700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL
SOUTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...WW 635...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
NNEWD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM/JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH CNTRL NEB. AMBIENT INFLOW AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F
AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AND WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN
LARGELY LINEAR...THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT
300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634
August 30, 2010 20:26:03WW 634 SEVERE TSTM MN NE SD 302025Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MUCH 0F EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG MOISTURE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IN THE AXIS OF 40-50 KT LLJ. GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR MORE DISCRETE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE RISK OF SEVERE
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
August 30, 2010 19:05:02WW 633 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 301905Z - 310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 700
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORLAND WYOMING TO 80 MILES EAST OF GILLETTE
WYOMING. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WY ATTM. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF BIG HORN MTNS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON
HEATING PERIOD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports
August 30, 2010 00:35:04WW 0632 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SAD TO
30 NNW TUS TO 15 SSE PHX.
..DIAL..08/30/10
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-009-011-021-300140-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA GRAHAM GREENLEE
PINAL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1755
August 29, 2010 22:44:06MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... FOR SERN AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...
VALID 292243Z - 300015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST.
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS OVER
SERN AZ SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND UPPER 50S MEAN
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION BUT DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ZONE OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF SRN THROUGH ERN AZ WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE
18Z RAOB DATA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SOURCE FOR DEEPER
MESOSCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENTRAINMENT. NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.
..DIAL.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31451102 32581164 33831144 34321061 34140962 33220912
31650909 31451102
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632
August 29, 2010 19:50:03WW 632 SEVERE TSTM AZ 291950Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SHOW LOW ARIZONA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA
ARIZONA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AS THE MDTLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED. WITH 25-30 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1753
August 29, 2010 19:14:05MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UT CO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...UT CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291913Z - 292115Z
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND EXPECT PERSISTENT
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN 30-40KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD-BEARING/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
30KT SHOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BUT DEEPLY MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37390907 37511002 37821021 38630996 39270953 39810907
40480838 40550775 40030738 39230741 38650787 37730848
37390907
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1751
August 29, 2010 18:42:05MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291841Z - 292015Z
THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports
August 28, 2010 20:56:03WW 0631 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE U24
TO 20 SSE MLD TO 20 ESE PIH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
..CARBIN..08/28/10
ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC005-007-011-019-029-041-043-065-081-282240-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM
BONNEVILLE CARIBOU FRANKLIN
FREMONT MADISON TETON
UTC005-011-013-029-033-035-043-049-051-057-282240-
UT
. UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CACHE DAVIS DUCHESNE
MORGAN RICH SALT LAKE
SUMMIT UTAH WASATCH
WEBER
WYC013-023-029-035-039-041-282240-
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
August 28, 2010 17:55:03WW 631 SEVERE TSTM ID UT WY 281755Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 28 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
NORTHERN UTAH
MUCH OF WESTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
600 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CODY WYOMING TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DUGWAY UTAH. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WATCH AS
AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. WITH 40-50 KT OF SHEAR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1200 J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
ENHANCED BY THE EXISTING GRADIENT WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS
INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1748
August 27, 2010 20:16:05MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272014Z - 272245Z
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
STORMS HAVE ERUPTED WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHERE HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL
TROUGH ALSO EXISTED ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
-10 C OVER NERN NC TO AROUND -8 C OVER SC. WIND PROFILES WERE
GENERALLY WEAK AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...BUT
HIGH LEVEL FLOW WAS SUBSTANTIAL. HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SWD MOVING CORES...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER
NC...WITH DECREASING HAIL SIZE EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
..JEWELL.. 08/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34277768 34717830 36137829 36447795 36537678 36187618
35137566 34507642 34277768
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1747
August 26, 2010 19:32:05MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261931Z - 262100Z
STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OF WRN VA...AND POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
THEY ENTER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA AND N CNTRL NC. THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
WEAK S/W TROUGH IS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
MID/UPR OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS FEATURE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN
VA...WITH ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN VA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE DURING THE
LAST FEW HRS AND ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF CNTRL
VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F...WHICH IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8.5 C PER
KM BASED ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE A WARM NOSE RESIDES AT AROUND 600
MB...WHICH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO MAINTAIN SOME VIGOR AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD CNTRL VA AND
PERHAPS N CNTRL NC...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-30
KT SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORM TYPES WILL BE OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO SUB-SVR DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..GARNER.. 08/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36898079 38217908 38437786 37757741 36517793 35987882
36168046 36898079
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1746
August 26, 2010 18:20:08MD 1746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN GA AND SRN SC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261819Z - 261945Z
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN GA AND SRN SC THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED NATURE OF
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SERN
STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN AL/SWRN GA...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
GOM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 90S F S OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER SRN GA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. FARTHER N OVER SRN
SC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HR OR SO...AND IS FOCUSING RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SURFACE THETA-E VALUES AS WELL AS MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...MULTICELLS AND PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE AIR MASS AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE CAPE AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS
AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
..GARNER.. 08/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32398368 33168179 32998020 32178021 30478189 30658369
32398368
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1743
August 24, 2010 17:57:06MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241756Z - 241930Z
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S-SWWD OUT OF ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND THEN WWD INTO SWRN TX. WEAK
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE CNTRL TX PORTION OF
THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL ZONES OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SEWD AND SWWD
FROM THE LOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F OVER ERN TX...WITH AN
AXIS OF 1.75-2.0 INCH PWAT VALUES /PER GPS DERIVED TPW GUIDANCE/
EXTENDING NEWD OUT OF THE GOM. MEANWHILE...HOT AIR MASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100-105 F/ AND STEEP 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES ARE EMANATING OUT OF SW TX INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...CLUSTERS OF
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THEN MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP LAYER
OF NLY FLOW /PER AREA VWP DATA/. STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN FAVORABLY
JUXTAPOSED HIGH PWAT AND HOT/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IF SVR
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ENOUGH...THEN A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
..GARNER.. 08/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30269547 29629716 30019878 31509874 32539777 32909678
32169584 30269547
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1742
August 24, 2010 16:26:06MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241625Z - 241800Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A MESOSCALE
COMPLEX WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST.
16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CHS WWD TO MCN AND THEN MORE SWWD THROUGH CSG TO NEAR GZH. 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EXHIBITED A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND MEAN MIXING
RATIOS OF 17-19+ G/KG. AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000-3500 J/KG.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING SEWD AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO HOURS. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCUSSION AREA WILL
RESIDE BENEATH A BELT OF ENHANCED NNWLY FLOW IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS
SUCH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT MULTICELL OR MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
INCREASE AND A WW WOULD HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.
..MEAD.. 08/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30308426 31088470 32108481 33158484 33548435 33358369
32778284 32448170 31498126 30328157 29978249 30308426
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| SPC MD 1741
August 23, 2010 20:49:05MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232048Z - 232315Z
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT FORM ERN SD INTO NWRN KS
WITH 2-3 MB 2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER NEB AND SD BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS HAMPERED HEATING SOMEWHAT ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SLY SURFACE WINDS AND UPSTREAM HEATING
SHOULD HELP NUMEROUS STORMS TO ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE.
DEEPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD ACROSS NEB
AND INTO KS ERODING CIN. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PROPAGATE
SEWD ON OUTFLOW WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38149900 37989975 38120031 38820083 39230045 40339976
41419903 41969792 41879708 41279678 40399733 38909827
38149900
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| SPC MD 1737
August 22, 2010 18:54:05MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN
GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221853Z - 222100Z
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BOOSTED
MLCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS.
..DIAL.. 08/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32439091 32588872 32878553 32068440 30678521 30408800
30639103 32439091
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| SPC MD 1736
August 22, 2010 00:52:07MD 1736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN/S-CNTRL AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/S-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220051Z - 220145Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SRN/S-CNTRL AZ. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PIMA/SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF S
CNTRL AZ. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW
VALUES /AROUND 1.8 INCH/ COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR
NWWD CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD POOL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE INTO PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES.
..ROGERS.. 08/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31601185 31871276 32231297 32761311 33041282 33181221
33341131 33011065 32341012 32021011 31721026 31471071
31331111 31601185
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| SPC MD 1735
August 21, 2010 17:55:06MD 1735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211754Z - 211930Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...SOMEWHAT DIFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OUT
OF IND INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK...WITH SUBTLE CONFLUENT ZONE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CNTRL AR...AND A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING S-SWWD OUT OF ERN KY INTO MIDDLE TN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE TN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S F. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL
AND PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR MASS...AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
..GARNER.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34858450 33938827 34259319 35229293 36448888 36758434
35948353 34858450
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| SPC MD 1734
August 21, 2010 03:20:06MD 1734 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 210319Z - 210445Z
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MO LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE AND SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
A SERIES OF SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS ONGOING IN WCNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SRN MO SUGGESTING THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MEASURED AT GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHICH ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S F SHOULD PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOWER MOVING
LINE-SEGMENTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SHOULD EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37979225 38119390 38339452 38839465 39149422 39039246
38989179 38929122 38749089 38359093 38079116 37979225
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| SPC MD 1732
August 21, 2010 00:47:05MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629... FOR ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629...
VALID 210046Z - 210145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
628...629...CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE WRN AND
CNTRL PART OF WW 628 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 03Z.
SEVERAL SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 629 AND
THE WRN PART OF WW 628 ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN MO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING IN WRN AND
CNTRL MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WET
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37999406 38039506 38729504 38689457 39069455 39289427
39499425 39519373 39619372 39599327 39709332 39699272
39619269 39579228 39959225 40289225 40309197 40249192
40229150 40209101 40309100 40279049 41199042 41158996
41278995 41248966 41108966 41128921 41658918 41628864
41108859 41138889 40688898 40588928 40328930 40298960
40078963 40108999 39879000 39899056 39849059 39829092
39759091 39769140 39639126 39459147 39169139 39139162
39079164 39079213 38659221 38749239 38419249 38529279
38689280 38709302 38529312 38499346 38209350 38189403
37999406
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 Status Reports
August 20, 2010 22:41:06WW 0628 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 628
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LWD
TO 15 ESE LWD TO 40 NNW IRK TO 20 S OTM TO 10 E OTM TO 20 NNE OTM.
..BROYLES..08/20/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 628
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-
109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-
203-202340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOONE BROWN
BUREAU CARROLL CASS
DEKALB FULTON HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS
KNOX LA SALLE LEE
MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL
MASON MERCER OGLE
PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SCHUYLER STARK STEPHENSON
TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE
WINNEBAGO WOODFORD
IAC031-045-057-087-097-101-103-107-111-115-139-163-177-183-
202340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629 Status Reports
August 20, 2010 22:41:04WW 0629 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 629
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..08/20/10
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-
113-115-127-139-143-149-161-169-177-197-209-202340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON CHASE
CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
MOC021-047-049-165-202340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN CLAY CLINTON
PLATTE
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629
August 20, 2010 22:41:03WW 629 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 202130Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF
OLATHE KANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...WW 628...
DISCUSSION...E/W BOUNDARY JUST S OF I70 IN KS/NWRN MO WILL BE FOCUS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS IS NOW
QUITE UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED TO S OF BOUNDARY. WITH APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS ENHANCING BOTH THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT.
STORMS WILL MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY PRIOR TO
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ACTIVITY SEWD THIS
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630
August 20, 2010 22:40:04WW 630 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 202240Z - 210400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 540 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...WW 628...WW 629...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS LM WILL
MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS AIR MASS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627 Status Reports
August 20, 2010 22:39:05WW 0627 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW DBQ
TO 10 SE VOK TO 25 SSW CWA TO 50 WNW AUW.
..ROGERS..08/20/10
ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC001-009-015-021-025-027-029-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-055-
057-059-061-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-078-079-083-085-087-089-
097-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-141-
202340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALUMET
COLUMBIA DANE DODGE
DOOR FLORENCE FOND DU LAC
FOREST GRANT GREEN
GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON
JUNEAU KENOSHA KEWAUNEE
LAFAYETTE LANGLADE LINCOLN
MANITOWOC MARATHON MARINETTE
MARQUETTE MENOMINEE MILWAUKEE
OCONTO ONEIDA OUTAGAMIE
OZAUKEE PORTAGE RACINE
RICHLAND ROCK SAUK
SHAWANO SHEBOYGAN TAYLOR
VILAS WALWORTH WASHINGTON
WAUKESHA WAUPACA WAUSHARA
WINNEBAGO WOOD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1730
August 20, 2010 22:21:05MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR ERN KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...SE IA...WRN AND NRN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...SE IA...WRN AND NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...
VALID 202220Z - 202345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 628 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS AND THE WW MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF
THE THREAT PERSISTS BEYOND WW EXPIRATION.
A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SE IA...NE MO
AND WRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70 F AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...THE DAVENPORT WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN IL. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN KS
AND NW MO SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING. IF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CAN ALSO DEVELOP
FURTHER WEST...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 08/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41879241 41289351 40139457 38519525 37799497 38179283
39199111 40038938 40888747 41938718 42648784 42649050
41879241
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1729
August 20, 2010 20:57:06MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202056Z - 202230Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY OVER NERN KS. SUPERCELLS
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EXTENT OF
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE ANY
WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO
WWD INTO NERN KS. NERN KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
STATIONARY. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY
LOW-FLOW FROM THE WARM SECTOR IS IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY
CONTRIBUTING TO A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NERN KS. A FEW
CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF SHALLOW LIFT. RUC
ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE THIS AREA IS WITHIN A ZONE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS OR
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS EVIDENT FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING INTO N-CNTRL KS. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD EVENING
COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH 0-1 KM
HELICITY HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT
APPEARS INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED FOR THIS
VORTICITY RICH AIR TO BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE
STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE ABOVE THE OUTFLOW.
..DIAL.. 08/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39789703 39519511 38919469 38529540 38449724 39079750
39789703
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627
August 20, 2010 20:23:03WW 627 SEVERE TSTM WI LM 201845Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF LA
CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANITOWOC WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS NOW INCREASING ALONG THE MS RIVER OVER
SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL WI MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
AS WELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HART
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
August 20, 2010 19:02:02WW 628 SEVERE TSTM IA IL KS MO LM 201900Z - 210100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...
DISCUSSION...MULTICELL STORMS AS WELL AS A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINAL
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH NRN
MO...SERN IA INTO NRN IL AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...DIAL
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1722
August 19, 2010 18:00:06MD 1722 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN UT THROUGH WRN CO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT THROUGH WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191759Z - 192000Z
STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH ERN UT AND WRN CO
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A
WW...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING EWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN UT. DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS REGION.
CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING FROM ERN UT INTO WRN CO WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 80S. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IN ADDITION...A MODEST UPPER JET MAX
ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT DEEP
SHEAR...SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION.
THIS ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG.
..DIAL.. 08/19/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 40610910 39360783 38490801 37940927 37761090 38071162
39421126 40331125 40901041 40610910
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1721
August 19, 2010 08:31:06MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 190830Z - 191030Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODELS SUGGEST LIFT WITH AN UPPER FEATURE
EXTENDS FROM SRN WI WWD INTO SERN MN/NERN IA AS OF 08Z. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE
LIFT IN THIS REGION...AND DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS.
EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IA DISINTEGRATED AT IT MOVED SWD AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A HIGHER CIN ENVIRONMENT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
COINCIDENT WITH WARMING ALOFT. THUS...A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF SRN MN/IA. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED CORES MAY
PERSIST FROM SERN MN INTO NERN IA/FAR WRN WI WHERE IT IS COLDER
ALOFT WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/19/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43059081 42809209 43159373 43659454 44269459 44639398
44519175 44169074 43869058 43469056 43059081
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1719
August 19, 2010 00:29:06MD 1719 CONCERNING
Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/MD_description_cdata.pl -f MD_Filename -m MDNUM - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1717
August 18, 2010 20:39:05MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SERN QUARTER OF SD / SWRN MN
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN QUARTER OF SD / SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182038Z - 182245Z
SWRN MN AND EXTREME E-CNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SEVERE STORM
THREAT EXTENDS FARTHER W TOWARDS THE MO RIVER AND MAY BE REALIZED
NEAR OR AFTER 00Z. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT AN ATTENDANT
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST THIS EVENING.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE FROM
NE OF THE BLACK HILLS NEAR PHP WHERE A 1006 MB LOW IS
LOCATED...ENEWD TO CNTRL MN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SHOW A BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM
OR TWO MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE SKIRTING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. A STRATUS SHIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF SD AND ADJACENT AREAS IN SWRN MN RETARDING MID DAY
SURFACE HEATING. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS EFFECTIVELY RESULTED IN A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BECOMING RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED AND
ARCING FROM CNTRL SD TO HON TO PQN.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES ARE AIDING IN FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TEMPS S
OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE WARMED IN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S N AND E. 12Z ABR RAOB SHOWED STRONG
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /3000 MUCAPE/ AND FORECAST TEMP/DEWPOINT IN THE
UPPER 80S/MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN/REMOVE THE CAP
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG MID-HIGH W-WNWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS...PREFERABLY FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SERN SD AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN MN WITH TIME. MAIN QUESTION
AT THIS TIME IS STORM INITIATION-TIMING...AND RESULTANT STORM
COVERAGE. VARIABILITY IN MODEL OUTPUT FIELDS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/COVERAGE ARE LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOPS OF MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT TRENDS IN EXPLICIT CONVECTION
RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE HINT AT STORMS INITIATING FIRST OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND A CONDITIONAL...MORE ISOLD THREAT FARTHER W NEAR OR
AFTER 00Z. NEVERTHELESS...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND POSE A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DMMG WIND
THREAT. IN ADDITION...A FORECAST 25 KT SSWLY LLJ BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..SMITH.. 08/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44189974 44699946 44919835 44929563 44759454 44479410
43789405 43549458 43549690 43539926 43889965 44189974
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1716
August 18, 2010 20:14:06MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SERN VA/N CENTRAL NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN VA/N CENTRAL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182013Z - 182115Z
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS SWRN VA AND ADJACENT NWRN NC. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS
SPREADING SEWD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OF SWRN VA AND VICINITY...WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
CONTINUED/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST...AND WITH 40 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS
APPARENT WITH STRONGER CELLS.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING
CLUSTERS. ATTM...A VERY LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT IS
INDICATED OVER SWRN VA...BUT WITHOUT SIGNS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSCALE GROWTH...WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.
..GOSS.. 08/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 35677979 36388053 36907935 37897830 38437766 38077674
36947684 35847887 35677979
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1713
August 18, 2010 10:21:08MD 1713 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL LA...EXTREME SWRN MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA...EXTREME SWRN MS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 181020Z - 181315Z
EXTREME RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
SAME AREAS WITH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER
CNTRL LA...AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING ORGANIZATION
WITH INCREASING VILS ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.50 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME SENSORS SHOWING VALUES AS HIGH AS
2.80-2.95 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE APPROACHING THE 100TH PERCENTILE
IN TERMS OF OBSERVED VALUES. GIVEN NO FLOW ALOFT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH 12-14Z.
..JEWELL.. 08/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31659152 31459116 30729148 30499179 30399228 30769247
31039235 31239216 31359199 31659152
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1707
August 17, 2010 02:45:05MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...623... FOR SWRN-SRN NEB AND NWRN-NRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN NEB AND NWRN-NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...623...
VALID 170244Z - 170345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
622...623...CONTINUES.
WW 622 AND 623 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 04Z.
ESEWD PROPAGATING MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SWRN NEB...WITH THE SWRN
FLANK /CURRENTLY OVER ERN DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES NEB/ MOVING
AT 30-35 KT. AT THIS SPEED...SOME WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SHORT TERM...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IN SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W ACROSS FAR SRN NEB FROM BIE TO THE
BORDER AREA OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. WAA ALONG NOSE OF 20 KT SLY LLJ
ACROSS KS INTO SRN NEB AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
SWRN NEB MCS AS IT ADVANCES ESEWD INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EAST OF WW 623...AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A NEW WW IS VERY LOW.
..PETERS.. 08/17/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40520166 40520061 40739990 40549916 40089891 39569865
39329977 39310051 39350135 39400161 39980134 40520166
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 Status Reports
August 17, 2010 00:38:04WW 0623 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/17/10
ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-109-153-181-193-199-170140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE LOGAN RAWLINS
SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE
NEC005-029-049-057-069-085-087-101-135-161-170140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR CHASE DEUEL
DUNDY GARDEN HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH PERKINS
SHERIDAN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
August 17, 2010 00:38:03WW 623 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 162305Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 623...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLAND KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 619...WW 620...WW
621...WW 622...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB/NE CO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVERSPREADING WY/NW CO. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE
FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM NE CO INTO NW KS/SW
NEB...WHERE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL STORM INFLOW WILL
BE MAINTAINED INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.
...THOMPSON
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620 Status Reports
August 16, 2010 22:37:06WW 0620 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GARNER..08/16/10
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-162340-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-162340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK
HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621 Status Reports
August 16, 2010 22:37:04WW 0621 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 621
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ANW TO
30 NNW BBW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704.
..PETERS..08/16/10
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 621
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-017-031-171-162340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROWN CHERRY
THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
August 16, 2010 20:36:03WW 622 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 162035Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF DOUGLAS WYOMING TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIMON COLORADO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 619...WW 620...WW 621...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH ACTS ON A STEEP-LAPSE RATE
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP WLY SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR MAINLY
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS TONIGHT WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT DEVELOPING INTO THE NEB
PNHDL AND THE PLAINS OF ERN CO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...MEAD
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621
August 16, 2010 20:10:03WW 621 SEVERE TSTM NE 162010Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MULLEN NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 619...WW 620...
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WNW-ESE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE AMBIENT
AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...MEAD
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| SPC MD 1703
August 16, 2010 19:52:05MD 1703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NRN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161950Z - 162115Z
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND VICINITY
MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONE INTENSE/SEVERE STORM MOVING
QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS HOLT COUNTY NEB...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/ IS INDICATED. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER W ALONG THE
BOUNDARY W AND NW OF LINCOLN NEB ATTM.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS
IS PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CELLS. WHILE THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE/SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS.. 08/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42679809 42369604 41459470 40969524 41529843 41340072
41870171 43020181 43080001 42679809
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| SPC MD 1702
August 16, 2010 19:09:05MD 1702 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN CO/SERN WY AND INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SERN WY AND INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161908Z - 162115Z
GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AS A VORT MAX CROSSES THE NERN UT/NWRN CO/SRN WY AREA
ATTM. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ASCENT...CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING
IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.
AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE UVV...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...WLY FLOW ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS --
AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS.. 08/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41700309 41370236 40380204 38980213 37690402 37480521
39580515 40520548 41680542 41830447 41700309
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619 Status Reports
August 16, 2010 18:34:06WW 0619 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW IPT
TO 35 SE UCA TO 30 SE SLK TO 40 NNW BTV.
..GOSS..08/16/10
ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...PHI...OKX...BTV...BGM...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC003-005-161940-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
MAC003-011-013-015-027-161940-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER
NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-161940-
NH
. NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE
COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH
MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620
August 16, 2010 18:15:02WW 620 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 161815Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
FAR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE MARYLAND TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 619...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD INTO A HOT AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. 17Z IAD SOUNDING
LIKELY REPRESENTS A GOOD PROXY FOR THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES WITH SWD
EXTENT. AS SUCH...GIVEN ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1700
August 16, 2010 18:02:06MD 1700 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF VA INTO MD AND DE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA INTO MD AND DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161801Z - 161930Z
SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN VA...MD AND DE. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. FURTHER S ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN VA...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND
LESS ORGANIZED.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
17Z IAD RAOB ACROSS NRN VA INTO MD/DE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE ROBUST AND BETTER ORGANIZED AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KT AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES /SLIGHT LOW LEVEL VEERING/ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VA...DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAKER AND
INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LESS AT AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE A
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...EXPECT STORMS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED WITH A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/16/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...
LAT...LON 39677833 38757928 37828020 36878073 36678071 36548022
36557902 36577761 36857697 37207630 37787578 38777554
39687555 39677833
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619
August 16, 2010 16:10:04WW 619 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NH NJ NY PA VT 161605Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
VERMONT
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF
HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NEWPORT
VERMONT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 618. WATCH NUMBER 618 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1205 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AS REGION IS GLANCED BY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUD BREAKS COUPLED WITH THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NRN NEW ENGLAND TO 1500-2500 J/KG INTO THE LOWER HUDSON AND DE RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD
ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING
STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 Status Reports
August 16, 2010 14:37:04WW 0618 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BGM TO
40 NE UCA TO 10 NNE SLK.
..GOSS..08/16/10
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC001-007-017-019-025-031-035-041-043-053-057-077-083-091-093-
095-113-115-161540-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CLINTON DELAWARE ESSEX
FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY OTSEGO
RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE WARREN WASHINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618
August 16, 2010 12:25:02WW 618 SEVERE TSTM NY LO 160945Z - 161700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 545 AM UNTIL 100
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM W TO E ACROSS WW REGION THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW NEARING LK ERIE/ ENHANCES ASCENT
WITHIN LOW LVL MOIST AXIS. MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW...COUPLED WITH HIGH PW...MAY YIELD SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...DESPITE TIME OF DAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...CORFIDI
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