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MD 1726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 201629Z - 201800Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ACROSS NERN
KS AND NRN MO INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SWRN IA THROUGH NWRN MO
INTO NERN KS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK NEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL AND NERN KS WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DIABATIC WARMING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND MLCAPE RANGES
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN KS AND NEB AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SPREADING THROUGH NRN MO AND SRN IA. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL
SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MULTICELLS LIKELY AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39149639 39639541 40489378 40169225 38999319 38599594
            39149639 

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 6 02:44:04 UTC 2010. - [Read more]

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 6 02:44:04 UTC 2010. - [Read more]

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...

...EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN/IA/NEB...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN SD/NEB.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN TONIGHT.  A LONG-LIVED MCS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO MN/IA AND HAS DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FLOW FIELDS...LIKELY TO SUPPRESS STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN INTO
IA/NEB.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN.

...ID/MT...
A MID LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER ORE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ID/MT LATER TODAY.  COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN ID AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MT DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..HART/GARNER.. 08/10/2010

Day 4-8 Outlook

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INCREASE STEADILY WITH TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY BY ROUGHLY
DAY 6 /WED. 8-11/.  

DAYS 4-5 /MON. 8-9 AND TUE.8-10/...THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  HERE...BELT OF FASTER FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
-- WHICH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EWD WITH TIME. 
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING EACH AFTERNOON...FUEL FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE -- WITH ORGANIZATION
AIDED BY AMPLE FLOW ALOFT.  EVEN DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER...ASCERTAINING DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL -- AND
AREAS WHERE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST -- IS COMPLICATED BY
SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THUS PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF
ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN W...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL SERN STATES...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W TO THE NRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW AT
00Z WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA.  DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER NRN NV WILL LIKELY FOCUS STRONG
STORMS ACROSS SERN ORE AND SWRN ID THROUGH MID-EVENING WHERE AN AXIS
OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPES EXISTS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE NRN NV IMPULSE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID...UT AND SW MT HAVE EVOLVED INTO
HIGH-BASED...QUASI-LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS.  INSPECTION OF 00Z RAOBS
AND VWP SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED IN MODEST WSWLY FLOW ABOVE
700 MB AND GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYER STRUCTURES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN WY
AND SCNTRL/SERN MT.

FARTHER E...A SEPARATE QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE E
AND SE ALONG/SW OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS WRN SD THIS EVENING.
 THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS STRONGER
INHIBITION DEVELOPS.  BEFORE THEN...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPIN-UP CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACCELERATES THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN ND...NRN SD AND SWRN MN. 
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...SE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE CONGEALED INTO AN
ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER COASTAL SC AND CNTRL GA AT 00Z. 
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SWD AND DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
02Z.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

...SCNTRL/SERN AZ...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EVOLVED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE W/N PERIPHERY OF SURGING GULF OF CA MOISTURE IN
SCNTRL AZ AND ALONG THE HIGHER SERN AZ TERRAIN.  EXPECT THAT AS
STORMS COLLAPSE...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SERVE TO AUGMENT
DOWNDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.  HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 08/07/2010

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DESERT SW...

...ERN PARTS OF NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK
SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/COINCIDENT WITH A SWLY LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE
EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY REINFORCING A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT
ALONG THE MS RIVER.  

IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
BY MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...WILL SURGE NWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML.  STRONG HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND...NERN SD AND
WCNTRL MN BY EVENING.  SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BUT MODESTLY VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS OF 45 KTS WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELLULAR
RANGE.  INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  AS STORMS CONGEAL...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SWLY LLJ EVOLVES AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN CNTRL
MN.  ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS.

...DESERT SW...
GULF OF CA MOISTURE SURGE IS UNDERWAY PER OBSERVATION AT ROCKY POINT
MEXICO.  THIS SURGE IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID MOISTENING OWING TO
CURRENT NIGHTTIME SONORA MCS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ NWWD INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  EXPECT MORNING CLOUD DEBRIS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE RIM COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE BY
MID-AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FARTHER NW IN THE CO RIVER VALLEY IN CONCERT WITH COMPARATIVELY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA UPPER TROUGH. 
WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MULTICELL STORM
CLUSTERS MOVING NNE WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. 

...INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN REGION BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY FOCUS ALONG NW PERIPHERY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PLUME
OVER UT AND AHEAD OF A NRN BRANCH LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS ID
INTO SWRN MT.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER SCNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SRN PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF A
WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE CAROLINAS/FL WWD INTO N TX AND SRN
OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS.

..RACY/HURLBUT.. 08/07/2010

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
MN/WI...

...UPPER MIDWEST...
UPPER RIDGE OVER NCENTRAL U.S. HAS FLATTENED PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE SLY FLOW E OF SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL
ND/SD BORDER IS DELIVERING A MOISTURE RICH AND POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD THRU THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE INCREASED
WESTERLIES HAVE ALLOWED AN IMPRESSIVE EML TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS TO NEAR
70F...WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  A MIXED-MODE OF
STORMS /DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES/DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN
AND WI.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  BY MID EVENING...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS WITH
THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.


...INTERIOR WESTERN U.S...
RAPID INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE NWD THROUGH AZ INTO SRN UT HAS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.  THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ELIMINATED ANY THREAT OF
ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK.  ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE...BASICALLY FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY NWD THRU WESTERN
UT...THERE WILL BE A ZONE WHERE THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HEATING CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CA PROVIDING
A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SUMMER TIME SLY FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL ALSO
AID THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.

HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH STORMS FROM MT SWD WHERE DCAPES COULD BE A HIGH AS 1500
J/KG ENHANCING THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN ANY HIGH BASED STORM. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER CA...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO FOCUS A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUFFICIENT FOR
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS.

..HALES/JIRAK.. 08/07/2010

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE ERN MO VALLEY...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD TO THE MID MO VALLEY...
AT 12Z SUNDAY...A TSTM CLUSTER /LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS/ IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.  ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS EARLY
PERIOD ACTIVITY...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN
MN INTO WI WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS ONGOING INTO LOWER MI.  SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWD INTO LOWER MI AIDING IN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TROUGH THEN REACHING THE NERN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO 30-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM CLUSTER AS IT SPREADS EWD.  WEAKER
INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY
ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
SPREAD INTO SRN LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SWD AND STORMS EITHER DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR
SPREAD INTO MI FROM WI/NRN IL.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE OR MORE WEAKER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
THESE FEATURES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRONG WNWLY ULJ OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SRN WI WSWWD TO ERN NEB.  MODELS INDICATED A SWD EXPANSION OF THE
SLIGHT WAS NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL GIVEN
EXPECTED SWD MOVEMENT OF TSTMS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS /PWAT 1.5-2+ INCHES/ ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J PER KG/ FROM SERN SD/ERN NEB TO SRN
WI/FAR NRN IL BY PEAK HEATING.  DESPITE THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO BE AROUND 40 KT WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH WWD
EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER UPPER FORCING WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSES AND TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES.  HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.  OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR ONE OR MORE MCS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO
NRN IL AND PARTS OF IA.

...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOIST AIR MASS S OF WEAKENING/SAGGING FRONT DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. 
WHILE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS...A
FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS.

..PETERS.. 08/07/2010

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV/WRN UT
AND NWRN AZ...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST SENTENCE

...ERN NV/WRN UT/NWRN AZ...
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD INTO PARTS OF
SERN NV AND NWRN AZ.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WHERE CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED EARLIER TODAY.  CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS
REGION COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SPREADING NE WITH ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER
CO VALLEY TO GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. 
DEEP LAYER SLY WIND FIELDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGEST
MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY.  IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...15 PERCENT HAIL
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -12 C...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
HAIL.  STORMS IN FAR NWRN AZ/SWRN UT MAY PRODUCE A FEW HAIL EVENTS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING A DIAMETER OF 2 INCHES GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.  OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE GSL AREA BY THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
GIVEN THAT A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED JUST N OF THIS REGION...WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. 
THIS COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  RECENT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS
OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB...INVOF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST N OF A SURFACE LOW AND ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED EWD INTO NERN NEB TO CENTRAL IA.  GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...A THREAT EXISTS FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT HAIL FROM NERN NEB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN AND
10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
OUTLOOK.  IN ADDITION...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG E-W SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO.  THUS...5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 08/08/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010/

...CENTRAL/UPPER MS VALLEY...
MAIN PLAYERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.  FOCUS FOR INITIATION WILL BE THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND WHERE THEY WILL BE LOCATED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY.

OVERNIGHT MCS DECAYING CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WITH A
TRAILING BOUNDARY WWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
SERN SD. BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 90S COUPLED WITH
RICH PWAT TO 2 INCHES MLCAPES AOA 4000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN
SD/ERN NEB ACROSS IA/SRN MN.

WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...STORM INITIATION
WILL BE TIED TO WHERE THE CINH WEAKENS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED. ATTM BEST CONVERGENCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE JUST TO E OF
SURFACE LOW SD INTO SRN MN.

INITIAL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A RISK OF
BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND DEGREE OF
CAPE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS/BOW AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/WI/IL WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE WWD ACROSS NEB INTO NWRN KS GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT INITIAL PULSE ACTIVITY COULD FORM
CLUSTERS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


...UT/NV...
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD AS ONE S/WV IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD ACROSS SRN NV INTO UT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER MAY BE A PROBLEM
ACROSS THE RISK AREA...POTENTIALLY LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER  HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS ERN NV/SWRN UT IN PROXIMITY TO THE S/WV
TROUGH WITH LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. BY THIS EVENING STORMS COULD ALSO IMPACT FURTHER NE TO GSL
AREA.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A 60+ KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND EXTEND
NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AIDING IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...NERN CA...NRN NV...SERN ORE...
SEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -10 DEG C/ ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS ADJACENT NERN CA AND
SERN ORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG DESTABILIZATION/STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...FAVORING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER FAVORED ELEVATED TERRAIN AS
WELL AS WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.

..GARNER.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE SRN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE EJECTS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W...BURSTS IN CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER W...A SMALLER UPPER IMPULSE WILL ENTER THE
PAC NW...WHICH MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
ORE/ID BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...SERN ORE AND SWRN ID...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING THE PAC
NW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...A MARGINALLY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...AND FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST STORM MOTIONS/
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SERN ORE/SWRN ID...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..GARNER.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

AN IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT PAC COAST TROUGH AND
EJECT NEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN/D3. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DESPITE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVELS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN FAR ERN NV...AS WELL
AS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/SLOW
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD MITIGATE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MON/D4...WHILE WEAK REMNANT TROUGHING REMAINS
OFF THE PAC COAST. DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ROCKY MTNS...AND NM/ERN AZ. A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
ROCKY MTNS MON/D4 AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...BUT CURRENTLY THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUE/D5...WITH THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTO THE PAC NW. GFS MEDIUM-RANGE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SCENARIO IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DRIER SWLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...AND WOULD CONFINE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF NM/ERN
AZ THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIANCE IN
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..ROGERS.. 08/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

MD 1592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... FOR NRN AND CENTRAL GA/SC/PARTS OF SRN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL GA/SC/PARTS OF SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...

VALID 062059Z - 062200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579
CONTINUES.

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN
VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO THE SC PIEDMONT...AND THEN WNWWD
THROUGH NRN GA TO FAR NRN AL TO NERN MS.  REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH ACTIVITY THAT HAD DEVELOPED
AND MOVED E/SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWRN EXTENT OF WW
579.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL ALSO AID IN NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE
IS MODERATELY-VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-2500+ J PER KG/. 
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR MASS RESULTING IN WATER LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS.  ALSO...ANY COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT /E.G. CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN GA INTO FAR WRN
SC WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S
OVER EAST CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC/ SHOULD ENHANCE THE DOWNSTREAM
WIND THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   34668499 34288317 34598174 34668047 34597914 34247907
            33997925 33597901 33127916 33007894 32917895 32317993
            31878049 31248092 31358156 31698191 31948229 31948262
            31798293 31908443 31988510 32308498 32628513 34278545
            34668499 

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062229Z - 070030Z

WHILE TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THAT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEAD TIME.
THUS...A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY.

VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG A DAL-MWL-ABI LINE
WHERE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
OCCURRING BENEATH/WITHIN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITH
STRONGER WLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER ELY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
PERHAPS PROMOTING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MASS
EVACUATION ACROSS THE REGION.

WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE FOR STORM PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION...HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SCATTERED AND NEAR RANDOM PATTERN TO DOWNBURST WIND
POTENTIAL BENEATH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND
ASCENT...MARGINAL FLOW AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR TWO SLOW-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS COULD ALSO GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 08/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32549623 31819697 31489905 31499976 31720043 32680127
            32960113 33180033 33399904 33469877 33549832 33279678
            32549623 

MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071138Z - 071415Z

EMBEDDED WITHIN ROUGHLY 500 NM LONG BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM SERN IA TO NERN ND...CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS BECOMING
BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER PORTIONS SWRN MN.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
TO GROW UPSCALE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS.  RAIN RATES
1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALSO ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH TRANSLATION OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT DURATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW
NEAR CENTRAL PORTION ND/SD BORDER...NEAR ATY-FRM-OTM LINE.  THIS
FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NE AWAY FROM TSTMS...BUT MAY BE RESTRAINED OR
EVEN SHUNTED TEMPORARILY BACK SWWD INVOF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...SUCH AS LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX EVIDENT AT 11Z
BETWEEN ULM-ATY.  BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM MSP INDICATES BROAD
REAR-INFLOW CURRENT 10-12 KFT AGL IN NWRN/TRAILING PRECIP REGION OF
THIS ACTIVITY.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ERN FRINGE OF
RIBBON OF LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN SUBCLOUD LAYER IS ADVECTING FROM
DAKOTAS OVER THIS AREA.  THIS IN TURN MAY ENCOURAGE ACCELERATION OF
STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS BELOW STORM BASE SUFFICIENT TO PENETRATE NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER IN A FEW LOCALES.  FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL WAA -- ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY VEERING LLJ -- OFFSETTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC MID-UPPER LAPSE RATES TO
GENERATE MUCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WITH STG BUOYANCY GRADIENT
CORRESPONDING TO WARM FRONTAL ZONE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ONLY IN 25-35 KT RANGE...AND MOST HAIL THAT IS
PRODUCED SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43519452 44239567 45059634 44859481 43819221 42649313
            43519452 

MD 1602 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF SE AR...NWRN MS...NE LA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE AR...NWRN MS...NE LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 071513Z - 071745Z

A PERSISTENT NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE COMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NORTH OF GREENVILLE
MS...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING EVIDENT...AND
A SURFACE COLD POOL NOW WELL DEVELOPED.  ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
VERY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW  /LESS THAN 10
KT/...BUT RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VEERING PROFILES FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE SURFACE TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS ACTUALLY
CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST SOUTHERLY SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW ON THE ORDER
OF 20 KT.  THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING RECENT STORM
INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY.  FURTHER ACCELERATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREENVILLE/ GREENWOOD AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI APPEAR
POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 17-19Z...BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF
VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...AND PERSIST ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF GREENVILLE.

GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...AND NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 700-500 MB LAYER /WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
APPEARS LOW.  BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH SLOW MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY
SUPPORTING EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS.

..KERR.. 08/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34159064 34079015 33598977 33279012 33249116 33519199
            33679220 33869194 33749146 33789107 33959083 34159064 

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN UT

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072013Z - 072215Z

A WEAK NNE/SSW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL UT.
THESE STORMS...AND THOSE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N INTO THE SALT
LAKE CITY METRO AREA...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
WW IS UNLIKELY.

A STRONG NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED OVER UT TODAY.  ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE AIR...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG PER
MESOANALYSIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

..JIRAK.. 08/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...

LAT...LON   40231302 40711270 40961238 40931200 40661183 39871223
            39531247 39001278 38681307 38891353 40231302 

MD 1606 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SCNTRL/SERN AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 072223Z - 080030Z

SATELLITE SHOWS AN MCV AROUND 125 NM SW OF KTUS AT 22Z...MOVING NE
25-30 KTS.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW SONORA STATE IN MEXICO AND WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN
SCNTRL/SERN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING.  OBVIOUSLY...MORNING MCV HAS
LEFT AN ENVELOPE OF SUBSIDENCE...AND DELAYED HEATING SEEMS TO BE
STUNTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION.

BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ON THE MODEST SIDE...THOUGH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND PRESENCE OF 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS.  CONCERN IS FOR BANDS OF STORMS ALIGNING WITH THE
MEAN SSW FLOW REGIME THAT WILL RESULT IN TRAINING STORMS.  RAINFALL
RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR.

ADDITIONALLY...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS SECONDARY TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
RISK.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AMIDST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY.

..RACY.. 08/07/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31831293 32941301 33061203 33201088 32270933 30870921
            30481103 30591194 31291274 31831293 

MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR PARTS OF SERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN NEBRASKA...SWRN MINNESOTA/NWRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN NEBRASKA...SWRN
MINNESOTA/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587...

VALID 082044Z - 082215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587
CONTINUES.

GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE CAPE...A FOCUSED AREA OF DEEP
LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR O NEILL NEB. 
AND...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY WARM
AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNBURSTS...WITH A CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD
POOL POSSIBLY SURGING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTH OF SIOUX
FALLS...ACROSS THE SIOUX CITY AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   42219833 42859790 43429791 43399591 42549551 41879621
            41929736 42219833 

MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN...WRN IA...NCNTRL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN...WRN IA...NCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 082247Z - 082345Z

SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NERN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD AT
2230Z.  COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUB-SYNOPTIC
CIRCULATION AND THE MCV SHOULD TRACK EWD TOWARD NWRN IA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  PREFERENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS INTO 3000+ J/KG MLCAPES AND
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP S
OF THE WATCHES INTO ECNTRL NEB WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.  OTHERWISE...NRN PARTS OF
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN IA AND EXTREME
SRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING...ALONG PERIPHERY OF EXTREME INSTABILITY.

A SEPARATE WEATHER REGIME MAY YIELD A LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS
DEVELOPING NWD FROM CNTRL KS TOWARD SCNTRL NEB.  HERE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLCAPES OF
2000+ J/KG WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AS A RESULT OF STORMS POSSIBLY BLEEDING OUT OF THE CURRENT WW/S INTO
ECNTRL NEB AND EVOLVING NWD OUT OF NCNTRL KS...A NEW WW OR LOCAL
EXTENSIONS MAY BE REQUIRED IN ERN NEB/WRN IA AND/OR CNTRL KS.

..RACY.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   43199916 44319323 42639322 41439497 40779662 39859762
            38829825 38169888 38440025 39480013 41449955 41659951
            43199916 

MD 1622 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...EXTREME NWRN IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...EXTREME NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 090240Z - 090415Z

BOW ECHO WAS MOVING E AT 45 KTS THROUGH CNTRL IA WITH STRONG/SEVERE
WINDS GUSTS.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST THAT THE BOW WILL REACH ERN END
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 AROUND 0330-04Z.  

CORRIDOR OF 3000+ J/KG CAPE EXISTS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO SW WI AND
NW IL AND THE LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AT LEAST TO THE
MS RIVER...SUPPORTED BY 30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
INHIBITIVE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  BUT...SUCH STRONG CAPE AND
MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARGUE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE EVENTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE TO THE BOW.

A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY.

..RACY.. 08/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44069292 44098980 42938949 41818996 41499067 41239227
            42269227 42299208 42929206 42959298 44069292 

MD 1623 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ECNTRL NEB...CNTRL IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB...CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 090314Z - 090615Z

TEXTBOOK CLASSIC CONCURRENT FORWARD AND BACKWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA LATE THIS EVENING.  IT APPEARS
THAT A SEVERAL HOUR EPISODE OF TRAINING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS WILL TRAIL THE BOW ECHO MOVING INTO ERN IA.  HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" ARE LIKELY...PRIMARILY IN A 30-50 MILE
CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 30N KOMA-30S KFOD-35SW KDBQ.

A 35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT STRONGLY BUOYANT PARCELS
ATOP THE DEEPENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE BOW ECHO
MOVING INTO ERN IA.  00Z OAX SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY MOIST PROFILE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.  FREEZING
LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 16.5KFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH STORMS.  CONCERN IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BACKBUILD FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE GENERATION POINT NEAR OMAHA.  ACTIVITY WILL
THEN TRAIN EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 08/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41749689 42099607 42329482 42399330 42419207 42359075
            42039063 41759116 41589202 41569327 41569442 41509555
            41549661 41749689 

MD 1626 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... FOR PORTIONS IA...SRN WI...NRN IL.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...SRN WI...NRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...

VALID 090706Z - 090900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594
CONTINUES.

WW 594 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD LOCALLY ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL WI
INCLUDING MSN AREA.  SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AND
EWD EXTENT...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
APCH LM BEFORE SYSTEM APPRECIABLY WEAKENS.

LARGE MCS IS MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 40 KT OVER SWRN WI...AND
ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN IL.  THIS COMPLEX IS FRONTED BY BOW
ECHO AND BACKED BY WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH 2-4 MB 2-HOURLY
PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS.  ACTIVITY ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH FAVORABLY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F. 
HOWEVER...COMPLEX HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE MEASURED SVR GUSTS AT ANY OF
SEVERAL SFC STATIONS THAT IT HAS CROSSED OVER ERN IA AND SWRN
WI...WITH IR CLOUD TOPS UNDERGOING GEN WARMING TREND.  ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOVING INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL
STABILIZATION...BOTH WITH TIME VIA SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AND WITH
EWD EXTENT INTO LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG IN IMMEDIATELY
PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER SWRN WI...TAPERING EWD TO 500-1000 J/KG
VICINITY MKE...WITH VERY SHARP STRENGTHENING OF MLCINH ALONG LM
SHORELINE AND SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AROUND 30 KT ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS AREA...AND ALSO BEHIND COMPLEX
AND ATOP OUTFLOW POOL WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING.
 ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAILING
TSTMS...THOUGH PRIMARY THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 1.5-2.5
INCH/HOUR EXACERBATED BY TRAINING OF PRECIP CORES.  GRADUALLY
VEERING/30-45 KT LLJ WILL FOSTER STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND LIFT ATOP
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SUPPORT OF MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
THREAT OVER IA...ALTHOUGH SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43408791 43538984 44409059 44919083 45519061 45549206
            45979218 46369123 46148979 45508913 45418839 45568645
            45608489 45048448 44218497 43488629 43408791 

MD 1628 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST SD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 092048Z - 092215Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN
NEB/SOUTHWEST SD...AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST KS...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.

A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST
SD...AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME AND/OR WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTHWEST SD. VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   44280341 43860158 40850103 39630199 40190442 41500364
            43390392 44280341 

MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME NERN CO...SW NEB AND NW KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SW NEB AND NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 092253Z - 100030Z

THERE HAS BEEN AN UPSWING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ON THE LOWER PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
AIDED BY INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
/TIED TO WRN CO IMPULSE/ BRUSHING THE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES TO 3000 J
PER KG/ BOUNDARY LAYER.  WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC AND WEAK AT THE MOMENT...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES NE AND SELY FLOW INCREASES. 
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE VALUES AND DIURNAL INCREASE
IN THE SLY LLJ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONTINUED BLOSSOMING OF STORMS.
 PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES.

..RACY.. 08/09/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40770441 41510339 41440017 40689955 39609929 39180081
            38830265 39890470 40770441 

MD 1635 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR NE CO...CNTRL/WRN NEB AND NW KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...CNTRL/WRN NEB AND NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...

VALID 100246Z - 100415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596
CONTINUES.

REPLAY OF REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT A COLD POOL GENERATED
SURGE HAS OCCURRED OVER EXTREME NERN CO AND THE SRN PART OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE.  THE CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS HAS RESULTED IN A
WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING MCS AT MID-EVENING.

THE MATURING MCS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT
TRAVELING NE TOWARD WY...BUT A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...
DOWNSTREAM WEAK BUT BUOYANT ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ALIVE THROUGH LATE EVENING.  
EVENTUALLY...INCREASING INHIBITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS MAY
RESULT IN ACTIVITY BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS.  

IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SWRN-CNTRL NEB...GENERALLY BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY 6 AND
INTERSTATE 80.

..RACY.. 08/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39549862 39170009 39090167 39290244 39640318 40170364
            41980415 42960232 42449953 41429864 39549862 

MD 1636 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 100415Z - 100715Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS CNTRL IL IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM 25ESE
KBRL-KBMI-KDNV THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.  

A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1014 MB HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS HIGH HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAPIDLY COOLING
CLOUD TOPS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL IL.  00Z ILX SOUNDING EXHIBITED
NEARLY 2.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VERY WEAK CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR.  FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 17KFT AND A TENDENCY FOR
ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD NWWD INTO THE WEAK SWLY LLJ WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TRAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  

IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION LOADING IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
COUPLE OF GUSTY/SVR WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 08/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40979036 40938931 40728801 40348766 40088787 40018873
            40128966 40349075 40979036 

MD 1639 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 101128Z - 101430Z

ORGANIZED MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER OVER DISCUSSION AREA FROM INITIALLY SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION.  RAIN RATES 2-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST
CORES...WITH MERGING AND TRAINING PROBABLE IN SOME AREAS TO ENHANCE
HAZARD.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLIER IA
CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL IL ACROSS NERN/N-CENTRAL MO TO
SWRN IA...THEN INTERSECTING QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
NWRN IA.  FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB TO LOW OVER
CENTRAL KS.  ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD APPEARS TO BE RELATED
TO COMBINATION OF PRESSURE FALLS IN WAKE OF NWRN IA/SWRN MN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND PROXIMITY OF MCV.  ELEVATED WARM FRONT NEAR
850 MB -- WHERE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO LFC IS TAKING PLACE -- IS ALIGNED NEAR AN FSD-DVN LINE AND SHOULD
DRIFT NEWD.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
NEB/SD...PRECEDED BY MCV OVER CENTRAL SD THAT RESULTED FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.  THESE SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION...INVOF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ. 
RIBBON OF PW 2-2.25 IS EVIDENT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IMMEDIATE
INFLOW REGION OF ZONE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM SWRN MN
SEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL IA.  

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD WITH NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS
EXPECTED OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FROM
SW-NE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...IN NRN IA AND SWRN MN --
AFTER PRIMARY CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT MOVED NEWD OUT OF NEB OVERTAKES
WAA-RELATED BAND.  SRN BOUND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONT.  OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EVENT MAY WANE AFTER
ABOUT 14Z AS FLOW IN ELEVATED WAA LAYER VEERS/WEAKENS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42349218 42499426 42719566 44149546 44619408 44069217
            43479130 42709113 42419194 42349218 

MD 1646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY INTO WV

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY INTO WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 111639Z - 111845Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA/OH TO WV/NORTHERN KY.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHWEST OH/FAR
NORTHERN KY...AS WELL IN A HOT/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN OH TO
WESTERN WV/FAR NORTHEAST KY. WHILE SOME STRONGER HIGH LEVEL FLOW
EXISTS PER WSR-88D VWPS FROM IND/ILN...RELATIVELY WEAK /20 KT OR
LESS/ AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BELOW 6 KM WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLY ORGANIZED STORMS. NONETHELESS...GIVEN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE BUOYANCY...THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   38458615 39728594 40068505 40148273 39378110 38188223
            38458615 

MD 1651 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS MD...DE...DC ALONG WITH SMALL ADJACENT SECTION OF NERN VA.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MD...DE...DC ALONG WITH SMALL ADJACENT
SECTION OF NERN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 121101Z - 121300Z

STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND --
INCLUDING GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SVR LIMITS THAT STILL COULD TOPPLE SOME
LIMBS/TREES -- ON EITHER SIDE OF NRN/CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC.  ATTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL AND
CONFINED SPATIALLY FOR WW.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVE MIN IN LOW-LEVEL STATIC
STABILITY AND IN MLCINH W OF BAY ACROSS POTOMAC...CORRESPONDING TO
JUXTAPOSITION OF POCKET OF SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 70S F.  THIS YIELDS MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AMIDST 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  .WHILE RICH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRECLUDE FORMATION OF INTENSE COLD POOL THROUGH RELATED LACK OF
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...MEAN WIND AND SHEAR VECTORS ARE ALIGNED
APPROXIMATELY NORMAL TO CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION.  THIS INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AMBIENT KINEMATIC REINFORCEMENT LIKELY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED VERTICAL CIRCULATION THAT CAN DEVELOP A REAR-INFLOW JET. 
CINH INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH SEWD EXTENT AWAY FROM BAY ATTM...AND
INCREASINGLY DENSE PRECONVECTIVE CLOUD/ANVIL COVER MAY PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE INSOLATION AFTER SUNRISE AND PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION OVER DOWNSHEAR AREAS OF DELMARVA PENINSULA. 
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ROBUST...AND COMPLEX MAY PEAK W OF OR OVER BAY.  MEANWHILE...COMPLEX
MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS PORTIONS DC METRO AREA AND SEWD DOWN
TIDAL POTOMAC.

..EDWARDS.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39137739 39287694 39597663 39357596 39067539 38987531
            38897532 38787515 38807506 38457504 38287511 38027525
            38157650 39137739 

MD 1653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... FOR SOUTHEASTERN VA AND EASTERN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VA AND EASTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...

VALID 121641Z - 121815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
CONTINUES.

WHILE INITIAL BOW ECHO HAS MOVED EAST OF THE SERN MD COAST...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE BOW STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM N OF A RIC TO
ORF LINE. A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY SHIFT SEWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO A WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY RANGING FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE 90S AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...THE THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...A COLD POOL MAY EVOLVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AT THAT TIME.

..IMY.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   37867881 37857741 37867591 37007562 35847531 34637501
            34547593 34557727 34557782 36007822 37117855 37867881 

MD 1655 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR S CNTRL PA...WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA AND WRN MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL PA...WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA AND WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 121752Z - 121915Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN VA AND WRN MD.

CURRENT AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM SWRN PA INTO NRN VA ALONG A WEAK SFC CONFLUENT
BOUNDARY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THESE STORMS.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40467919 40457885 40357850 40087797 39857756 39577712
            39287665 39007629 38707607 38107577 37887590 37907663
            37867779 37857848 37847879 38307890 38877921 39337943
            39707968 40087965 40327953 40467919 

MD 1657 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... FOR SRN VA AND NERN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...

VALID 122045Z - 122145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 601. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IN TIME OR NEW WATCH.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY
INCREASING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NERN NC ASSOCIATED
WITH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED FROM NERN NC SWWD TO
THE NC/SC BORDER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FURTHER SOUTH AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE. 

FARTHER N OF THE WATCH...SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL VA AND WRN
MD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SEWD INTO WW 601. THIS...ALONG WITH
CURRENT STORMS OVER NERN NC...MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH OR EXTENSION
OF WW 601.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   34537783 37817876 37837585 34547501 34537783 

MD 1659 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN KS TO SCNTRL NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS TO SCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122237Z - 130030Z

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED AND DEEPENED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS
INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
100-106F.  HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NW OF GCK...EXTENDING TO NEAR HSI. 
THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS LIKELY
BASED ABOVE 700 MB WITH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE ONE INCH.  IT APPEARS
STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO LOW RH
VALUES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER ENHANCING THE SFC WIND THREAT. 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

..DARROW.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38060179 39080017 40329869 39829794 38499920 37600120
            38060179 

MD 1669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 131536Z - 131700Z

ONE OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
NEAR/EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI.

STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS A WEAKER IMPULSE WITHIN A
SEPARATE...SUBTROPICAL...STREAM...IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS
INCLUDES RECENT NEW STORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS AREAS SOUTH THROUGH EAST
OF THE OMAHA.  SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT INTENSIFYING STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME INCREASING ROOTED WITHIN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE LARGE STORM CLUSTER
EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE/UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE CAPE AND
SIZABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND THE EVOLUTION OF STRONG SURFACE COLD
POOLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
TOP...

LAT...LON   43789626 44979537 44899341 43779143 41759094 40349168
            39459361 39219472 39289569 39999632 40769569 41889549
            42419587 42969628 43319631 43789626 

MD 1671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NE MO...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MO...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 131854Z - 132000Z

COORDINATION FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL OCCUR SOON...LIKELY
RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..KERR.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40269330 41079224 41879161 42359087 42738959 42918886
            42638804 41958820 40489089 39899195 40269330 

MD 1672 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NE GA...MOST OF SC...FAR SE NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...MOST OF SC...FAR SE NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 132000Z - 132130Z

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. 

STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE
MID/UPPER 90S AS OF 19Z. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S...THIS HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...WITH MLCAPE RISING ABOVE 3000 J/KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE SFC
MESOANALYSIS. 

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM FAR SE NC INTO CNTRL SC MAY TEND
TO FOCUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD
BE LIMITED BY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /GENERALLY AOB 20 KTS/ BUT WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 9 C/KM/ IN PLACE ALONG WITH DCAPE
VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND.

..DEAN.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32788021 32778081 32898150 33248239 33398318 33798412
            34468437 34968390 35038234 34968087 34787961 34527856
            34307808 33847801 32788021 

MD 1673 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL AND ERN KS INTO W CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS INTO W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 132011Z - 132145Z

A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

SLOWLY DEEPENING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH
OF SALINA.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A HOT AND
MOIST...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3000 J/KG.  CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION REMAINS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED PARCELS...BUT A BAND OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
CONVECTION INTO VIGOROUS STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE VERY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNBURSTS...AND ALONG NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD
SURGING SURFACE COLD POOLS.

..KERR.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38679849 39439723 39709480 38899458 37889651 37359770
            37209857 38679849 

MD 1674 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...

VALID 132227Z - 132330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609
CONTINUES.

WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS ADVANCING EWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT
ACROSS WW 609.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SOON SPREAD EAST OF THE WATCH
INTO CNTRL/NERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE LOWER-MID 90S AND MLCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000
J/KG...HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED.  IT APPEARS WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR
50KT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES
DOWNSTREAM.  WW MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39939174 43068956 42438754 39788959 39939174 

MD 1675 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612... FOR KS - NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...KS - NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612...

VALID 132251Z - 132345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612
CONTINUES.

BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND ALONG A WIND SHIFT
FROM MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL KS TO DEKALB COUNTY IN NWRN MO.  SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY HOT OVER SCNTRL KS WITH ICT REPORTING
108F...AND MANY READINGS NEAR 105F INTO NERN KS.  GIVEN THAT PWAT
VALUES ARE NEAR 2 INCHES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS APPROACHING 40-50 DEG IN PLACES...THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.  IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR SW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SCNTRL
KS...OTHERWISE A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 08/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38689886 40289335 38549334 36949885 38689886 

MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612... FOR ERN KS...MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612...

VALID 140234Z - 140330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612
CONTINUES.

SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED ELEVATED MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM ECNTRL KS INTO
CNTRL MO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITHIN NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER.  TWO PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SETTLING SLOWLY
SWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT AS LLJ GRADUALLY VEERS INTO
THIS PORTION OF THE STATE.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR ANOTHER WATCH AS HAIL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND UPDRAFTS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM SFC WIND SHIFT.

..DARROW.. 08/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38179671 39529374 39969187 39029015 38179041 38319250
            37829470 37359660 38179671 

MD 1678 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OH AND PARTS OF ADJACENT PA...WV AND KY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OH AND PARTS OF ADJACENT PA...WV AND KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141715Z - 141915Z

THE NEED FOR A WW DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY LIKELY...BUT ONE
COULD BE REQUIRED IF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL
BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS OR IMMINENT THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 90S HAS OCCURRED NEAR
AND SOUTHEAST OF A DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL OHIO.  ON THE NOSE OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FORCING DOWNSTREAM
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...PERHAPS A REMNANT MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO AN ONGOING
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
 
DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING.  WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO
CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.  WITH
TIME...CONSOLIDATING SURFACE COLD POOLS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOMEWHAT BROADER SCALE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS THAT COULD
AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.  BUT THIS SHOULD BE A SLOW
PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AT OR
BELOW 20 KT.

..KERR.. 08/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   40888336 41398275 41918153 41688028 40078029 38578182
            38228299 38538441 39068474 39798437 40888336 

MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF KY AND PARTS OF ADJACENT IND...TN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY AND PARTS OF ADJACENT IND...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141843Z - 142045Z

IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED/
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG AN
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY IS WEAK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS TRAILING FROM A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE RIVER.  FURTHER INCREASE AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 21-23Z...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE VORTEX PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A DEVELOPING CLUSTER EAST OF
EVANSVILLE THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND AREAS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH.  

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS...BUT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING QUITE STEEP...AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
COLD POOLS.  WITH CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...THE THREAT FOR BROADER SCALE...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND
GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..KERR.. 08/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36688916 37248824 37768725 38368640 39048541 39148474
            38338380 37808401 36748552 36378649 35908767 35878919
            36688916 

MD 1685 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... FOR CENTRAL AND SRN KS/NRN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN KS/NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...

VALID 150042Z - 150145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.

EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD
FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SWRN MO AND THEN WWD THROUGH FAR SERN-SOUTH
CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK /WOODS COUNTY/.  THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NWRN OK PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MOVING SWD...ENHANCED BY
OUTFLOW FROM THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS WITHIN WW 615.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED NWWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO WRN
KS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7-8 C/KM.

...SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF WW 615...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE E-W PORTION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SERN KS AND FAR NRN OK.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINEAR
STRUCTURES...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES
EWD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW 615...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS /RIGHT MOVERS
FAVORED/ HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF THIS WATCH IN WEST
CENTRAL KS SINCE 2230Z.  THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A SWD
MOVING FRONT THROUGH WRN KS...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
GREELEY TO JEWELL COUNTIES AT 00Z.  THESE STORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF THE NWRN EXTENSION OF THE SRN KS BOUNDARY. 
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ESEWD THROUGH
WRN/CENTRAL KS.  THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD MARK THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH COUNTIES N OF THIS
BOUNDARY BEING REMOVED FROM THE WATCH.

...FAR SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN
KS WILL DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM INTO SWRN MO. 
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF WW 615 WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN MCS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN KS INTO MO TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED WITH A NEW
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

..PETERS.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   38300196 39129946 39189790 38639564 38429557 38309497
            37879451 37689405 37539352 37129363 36589428 36359513
            36179613 36529692 36489857 36609907 36689997 37030034
            37080066 37570089 37810119 38300196 

MD 1686 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... FOR CENTRAL AND SRN KS/FAR NRN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN KS/FAR NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...

VALID 150328Z - 150430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GRADUAL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH EWD PROPAGATING TSTM CLUSTER OVER SERN KS /LOCATED GENERALLY
BETWEEN WLD-EMP-CNU/.  THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THIS
ACTIVITY ARCED FROM THE KS/OK BORDER AT CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY KS SWWD
THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL OK...AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN OK.  A
SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY...ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...EXTENDED
FROM SWRN MO INTO NERN OK.

SINCE 02Z...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS
/VICINITY AND S-W OF ICT/.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY
LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THIS REGION ON NOSE OF 20 KT
SLY LLJ.  RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
40-50 KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS YET THIS EVENING ALONG
AND ESE OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS....WITH
ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS REACHING SWRN MO BY 05Z.  HOWEVER...INCREASING
SBCINH AND THE LACK OF A STRONGER LLJ SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID
PART OF WW 615 THROUGH 04Z...WITH A DOWNSTREAM WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED
INTO SWRN MO.

..PETERS.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
AMA...

LAT...LON   36649991 37130046 37810025 38379941 39219836 39229795
            39099692 38169386 37069387 36619402 36219614 36539692
            36599804 36429863 36639941 36649991 

MD 1688 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... FOR SRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616...

VALID 150851Z - 151015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616
CONTINUES.

SMALL MCS CONTINUES EWD ACROSS S CNTRL MO...WITH LEAD OUTFLOW...MAIN
STORMS CELLS AND STRATIFORM RAIN AREA ALL MOVING IN LOCK-STEP. GIVEN
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE
REASON TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH OR CHANGE IN INTENSITY.
THUS...CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 616...WITH
STRONG/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DIRECTLY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN CORE.

..JEWELL.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36929159 37129252 37299273 37649255 37729038 37419022
            37059032 36859046 36929159 

MD 1690 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL MS INTO MIDDLE TN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 151814Z - 152015Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL MS FROM
NEAR GLH TO GWO TO CBM. THIS BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS N
CNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN SOUTH OF BNA BUT HAS BECOME FAIRLY DIFFUSE.
LATEST VIS SAT SHOWED CU BECOMING MORE AGITATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
IN MS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY FAIRLY SPARSE ACROSS MIDDLE TN...WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. 

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S IN MS TO THE LOW 90S NEWD
INTO TN. DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S HAVE RESULTED IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE DAY WITH VWP/S FROM MS TO TN
INDICATING AROUND 15-20 KT 0-3 KM SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
LESS THAN 20 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORM CLUSTERS AND
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET
MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33549100 34439013 35588816 36268689 36538590 36328578
            35858577 34968617 32088839 31718933 32179083 33549100 

MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NRN TX AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN OK...SWRN AR...AND NWRN LA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN OK...SWRN
AR...AND NWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151858Z - 152100Z

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY IN A
BAND...GENERALLY WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION.  EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY WEAK SHEAR/FLOW
REGIME BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE
INITIATED AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
GRAVITY WAVES EMANATING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  AS INHIBITION
FOR THE HOT...DEEPLY MIXED AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY.  IN THE PRESENCE OF
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75-2.OO INCHES...
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS THROUGH
21-23Z.  THEREAFTER...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO
SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC STORM MOTIONS/PROPAGATION ...ASSOCIATED EXPANDING
AND CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS WILL PROBABLY STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34620095 34639918 34589794 34569598 34309373 33079315
            31859330 31709400 32199710 32380048 33540183 34620095 

MD 1692 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR ERN LWR MI...NWRN OH

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LWR MI...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617...

VALID 152019Z - 152145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617
CONTINUES.

THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 21-22Z.  ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH ACROSS OHIO
...IF IT ALL.....EXCEPT PERHAPS AROUND THE FINDLAY/TOLEDO AREA OF
NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z...WHERE MODEST STRENGTHENING
OF FORCING APPEARS POSSIBLE.  THIS MAY INCLUDE ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS
IN THE PRESENCE OF 2000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AND MODERATELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.

..KERR.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   41078487 41668425 42588317 41988261 42098211 42378110
            41948078 41158140 39878251 39298375 39378498 40318468
            41078487 

MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... FOR NRN OH

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617...

VALID 152225Z - 152330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617
CONTINUES.

AT 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS EMANATED NWD INTO CNTRL-NRN OH FROM STORMS
OVER SRN OH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION OVER CNTRL OH /WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F/...AND LESS SO OVER NRN OH /INVOF LAKE ERIE
COASTLINE/ WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F.
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN OH THROUGH 03Z AS 60+ KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION. MAGNITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL ACROSS THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT DISCRETE STORMS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO A BRIEF TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40398494 41738356 41948050 40418091 39838435 40398494 

MD 1695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN-SOUTH CENTRAL AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-SOUTH CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152254Z - 160030Z

ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.  WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN AZ.  IN ADDITION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.5 IN/HR.

WSR-88D VWPS OVER SRN-SERN AZ INDICATED DEEP ELY WINDS AOB 15-20 KT.
GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING /UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID
60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND/OR IF ACTIVITY CAN
MERGE/FORM CLUSTERS INTO THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 08/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31301037 31361115 31871265 33271232 33521216 33431130
            33321063 32670987 31380955 31301037 

MD 1700 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF VA INTO MD AND DE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA INTO MD AND DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 161801Z - 161930Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN VA...MD AND DE. A
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR. FURTHER S ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN VA...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND
LESS ORGANIZED.

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
17Z IAD RAOB ACROSS NRN VA INTO MD/DE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME
MORE ROBUST AND BETTER ORGANIZED AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KT AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES /SLIGHT LOW LEVEL VEERING/ WILL SUPPORT MAINLY LINE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL/SRN VA...DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAKER AND
INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY LESS AT AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WHILE A
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS...EXPECT STORMS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED WITH A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON   39677833 38757928 37828020 36878073 36678071 36548022
            36557902 36577761 36857697 37207630 37787578 38777554
            39687555 39677833 

MD 1702 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN CO/SERN WY AND INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/SERN WY AND INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 161908Z - 162115Z

GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AS A VORT MAX CROSSES THE NERN UT/NWRN CO/SRN WY AREA
ATTM.  AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ASCENT...CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING
IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.

AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE UVV...EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...WLY FLOW ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS --
AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 08/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41700309 41370236 40380204 38980213 37690402 37480521
            39580515 40520548 41680542 41830447 41700309 

MD 1703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NRN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND ADJACENT WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 161950Z - 162115Z

LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND VICINITY
MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONE INTENSE/SEVERE STORM MOVING
QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS HOLT COUNTY NEB...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHERE AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE/ IS INDICATED.  OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER W ALONG THE
BOUNDARY W AND NW OF LINCOLN NEB ATTM.

WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...A BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS
IS PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CELLS.  WHILE THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE/SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 08/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42679809 42369604 41459470 40969524 41529843 41340072
            41870171 43020181 43080001 42679809 

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...623... FOR SWRN-SRN NEB AND NWRN-NRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN NEB AND NWRN-NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...623...

VALID 170244Z - 170345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
622...623...CONTINUES.

WW 622 AND 623 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 04Z.

ESEWD PROPAGATING MCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS SWRN NEB...WITH THE SWRN
FLANK /CURRENTLY OVER ERN DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES NEB/ MOVING
AT 30-35 KT.  AT THIS SPEED...SOME WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SHORT TERM...BUT A DIMINISHING TREND IN SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  

SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING GENERALLY E-W ACROSS FAR SRN NEB FROM BIE TO THE
BORDER AREA OF NWRN KS/SWRN NEB.  WAA ALONG NOSE OF 20 KT SLY LLJ
ACROSS KS INTO SRN NEB AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE
SWRN NEB MCS AS IT ADVANCES ESEWD INTO SRN NEB/NRN KS.  LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EAST OF WW 623...AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A NEW WW IS VERY LOW.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40520166 40520061 40739990 40549916 40089891 39569865
            39329977 39310051 39350135 39400161 39980134 40520166 

MD 1713 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL LA...EXTREME SWRN MS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA...EXTREME SWRN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 181020Z - 181315Z

EXTREME RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
SAME AREAS WITH 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER
CNTRL LA...AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING ORGANIZATION
WITH INCREASING VILS ESPECIALLY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.50 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME SENSORS SHOWING VALUES AS HIGH AS
2.80-2.95 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE APPROACHING THE 100TH PERCENTILE
IN TERMS OF OBSERVED VALUES. GIVEN NO FLOW ALOFT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH 12-14Z.

..JEWELL.. 08/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31659152 31459116 30729148 30499179 30399228 30769247
            31039235 31239216 31359199 31659152 

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SERN VA/N CENTRAL NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN VA/N CENTRAL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 182013Z - 182115Z

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS SWRN VA AND ADJACENT NWRN NC.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS
SPREADING SEWD OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OF SWRN VA AND VICINITY...WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. 
CONTINUED/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST...AND WITH 40 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAINS
APPARENT WITH STRONGER CELLS.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING
CLUSTERS.  ATTM...A VERY LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT IS
INDICATED OVER SWRN VA...BUT WITHOUT SIGNS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPSCALE GROWTH...WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.

..GOSS.. 08/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35677979 36388053 36907935 37897830 38437766 38077674
            36947684 35847887 35677979 

MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SERN QUARTER OF SD / SWRN MN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN QUARTER OF SD / SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 182038Z - 182245Z

SWRN MN AND EXTREME E-CNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SEVERE STORM
THREAT EXTENDS FARTHER W TOWARDS THE MO RIVER AND MAY BE REALIZED
NEAR OR AFTER 00Z.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT AN ATTENDANT
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST THIS EVENING.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SLOWLY SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE FROM
NE OF THE BLACK HILLS NEAR PHP WHERE A 1006 MB LOW IS
LOCATED...ENEWD TO CNTRL MN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS SHOW A BAND OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM
OR TWO MOVING EWD ACROSS E-CNTRL SD IN RESPONSE TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE SKIRTING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A STRATUS SHIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS NERN
PORTIONS OF SD AND ADJACENT AREAS IN SWRN MN RETARDING MID DAY
SURFACE HEATING.  THIS CLOUD COVER HAS EFFECTIVELY RESULTED IN A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BECOMING RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED AND
ARCING FROM CNTRL SD TO HON TO PQN.

CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES ARE AIDING IN FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TEMPS S
OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE WARMED IN TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S N AND E.  12Z ABR RAOB SHOWED STRONG
ELEVATED INSTABILITY /3000 MUCAPE/ AND FORECAST TEMP/DEWPOINT IN THE
UPPER 80S/MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN/REMOVE THE CAP
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG MID-HIGH W-WNWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS...PREFERABLY FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS SERN SD AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SWRN MN WITH TIME.  MAIN QUESTION
AT THIS TIME IS STORM INITIATION-TIMING...AND RESULTANT STORM
COVERAGE.  VARIABILITY IN MODEL OUTPUT FIELDS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/COVERAGE ARE LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.  LOOPS OF MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT TRENDS IN EXPLICIT CONVECTION
RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE HINT AT STORMS INITIATING FIRST OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND A CONDITIONAL...MORE ISOLD THREAT FARTHER W NEAR OR
AFTER 00Z.  NEVERTHELESS...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND POSE A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DMMG WIND
THREAT.  IN ADDITION...A FORECAST 25 KT SSWLY LLJ BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..SMITH.. 08/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44189974 44699946 44919835 44929563 44759454 44479410
            43789405 43549458 43549690 43539926 43889965 44189974 

MD 1719 CONCERNING Usage: /web/spcweb/rss/MD_description_cdata.pl -f MD_Filename -m MDNUM - [Read more]

MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NRN IA...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 190830Z - 191030Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODELS SUGGEST LIFT WITH AN UPPER FEATURE
EXTENDS FROM SRN WI WWD INTO SERN MN/NERN IA AS OF 08Z. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE
LIFT IN THIS REGION...AND DESPITE MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS.

EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER NWRN IA DISINTEGRATED AT IT MOVED SWD AWAY
FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INTO A HIGHER CIN ENVIRONMENT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER THE UPPER WAVE PASSES...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
COINCIDENT WITH WARMING ALOFT. THUS...A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF SRN MN/IA. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ISOLATED CORES MAY
PERSIST FROM SERN MN INTO NERN IA/FAR WRN WI WHERE IT IS COLDER
ALOFT WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43059081 42809209 43159373 43659454 44269459 44639398
            44519175 44169074 43869058 43469056 43059081 

MD 1722 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN UT THROUGH WRN CO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT THROUGH WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 191759Z - 192000Z

STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP THROUGH ERN UT AND WRN CO
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A
WW...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING EWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN UT. DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IN THIS REGION.
CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN STRONGER DIABATIC
WARMING FROM ERN UT INTO WRN CO WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 80S. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. IN ADDITION...A MODEST UPPER JET MAX
ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT DEEP
SHEAR...SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION.
THIS ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM COULD SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   40610910 39360783 38490801 37940927 37761090 38071162
            39421126 40331125 40901041 40610910 

MD 1729 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 202056Z - 202230Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY OVER NERN KS. SUPERCELLS
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EXTENT OF
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE ANY
WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO
WWD INTO NERN KS. NERN KS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
STATIONARY. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY
LOW-FLOW FROM THE WARM SECTOR IS IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY
CONTRIBUTING TO A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS NERN KS. A FEW
CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF SHALLOW LIFT. RUC
ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE THIS AREA IS WITHIN A ZONE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS OR
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS EVIDENT FARTHER UPSTREAM MOVING INTO N-CNTRL KS. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET TOWARD EVENING
COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH 0-1 KM
HELICITY HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT
APPEARS INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED FOR THIS
VORTICITY RICH AIR TO BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE
STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE ABOVE THE OUTFLOW.

..DIAL.. 08/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39789703 39519511 38919469 38529540 38449724 39079750
            39789703 

MD 1730 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628... FOR ERN KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...SE IA...WRN AND NRN IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...SE IA...WRN AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...

VALID 202220Z - 202345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628
CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL PART OF WW 628 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS AND THE WW MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF
THE THREAT PERSISTS BEYOND WW EXPIRATION.

A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SE IA...NE MO
AND WRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70 F AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...THE DAVENPORT WSR-88D VWP SHOWS
ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN IL. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN KS
AND NW MO SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING. IF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT CAN ALSO DEVELOP
FURTHER WEST...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/20/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41879241 41289351 40139457 38519525 37799497 38179283
            39199111 40038938 40888747 41938718 42648784 42649050
            41879241 

MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629... FOR ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629...

VALID 210046Z - 210145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
628...629...CONTINUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE WRN AND
CNTRL PART OF WW 628 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 03Z.

SEVERAL SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 629 AND
THE WRN PART OF WW 628 ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. 
IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN MO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING IN WRN AND
CNTRL MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WET
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37999406 38039506 38729504 38689457 39069455 39289427
            39499425 39519373 39619372 39599327 39709332 39699272
            39619269 39579228 39959225 40289225 40309197 40249192
            40229150 40209101 40309100 40279049 41199042 41158996
            41278995 41248966 41108966 41128921 41658918 41628864
            41108859 41138889 40688898 40588928 40328930 40298960
            40078963 40108999 39879000 39899056 39849059 39829092
            39759091 39769140 39639126 39459147 39169139 39139162
            39079164 39079213 38659221 38749239 38419249 38529279
            38689280 38709302 38529312 38499346 38209350 38189403
            37999406 

MD 1734 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 210319Z - 210445Z

A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MO LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE AND SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.

A SERIES OF SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS ONGOING IN WCNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SRN MO SUGGESTING THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MEASURED AT GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHICH ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S F SHOULD PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOWER MOVING
LINE-SEGMENTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SHOULD EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37979225 38119390 38339452 38839465 39149422 39039246
            38989179 38929122 38749089 38359093 38079116 37979225 

MD 1735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 211754Z - 211930Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...SOMEWHAT DIFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OUT
OF IND INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK...WITH SUBTLE CONFLUENT ZONE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CNTRL AR...AND A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING S-SWWD OUT OF ERN KY INTO MIDDLE TN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE TN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S F. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL
AND PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR MASS...AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.

..GARNER.. 08/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34858450 33938827 34259319 35229293 36448888 36758434
            35948353 34858450 

MD 1736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN/S-CNTRL AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/S-CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 220051Z - 220145Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SRN/S-CNTRL AZ. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PIMA/SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF S
CNTRL AZ. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW
VALUES /AROUND 1.8 INCH/ COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR
NWWD CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD POOL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE INTO PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES.

..ROGERS.. 08/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   31601185 31871276 32231297 32761311 33041282 33181221
            33341131 33011065 32341012 32021011 31721026 31471071
            31331111 31601185 

MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN
GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 221853Z - 222100Z

ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BOOSTED
MLCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS.

..DIAL.. 08/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   32439091 32588872 32878553 32068440 30678521 30408800
            30639103 32439091 

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 232048Z - 232315Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT FORM ERN SD INTO NWRN KS
WITH 2-3 MB 2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER NEB AND SD BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS HAMPERED HEATING SOMEWHAT ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SLY SURFACE WINDS AND UPSTREAM HEATING
SHOULD HELP NUMEROUS STORMS TO ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE.
DEEPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD ACROSS NEB
AND INTO KS ERODING CIN. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PROPAGATE
SEWD ON OUTFLOW WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 08/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38149900 37989975 38120031 38820083 39230045 40339976
            41419903 41969792 41879708 41279678 40399733 38909827
            38149900 

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 241625Z - 241800Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.  WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A MESOSCALE
COMPLEX WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST.

16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CHS WWD TO MCN AND THEN MORE SWWD THROUGH CSG TO NEAR GZH.  12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EXHIBITED A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND MEAN MIXING
RATIOS OF 17-19+ G/KG.  AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000-3500 J/KG.

THE EXISTENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING SEWD AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO HOURS.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCUSSION AREA WILL
RESIDE BENEATH A BELT OF ENHANCED NNWLY FLOW IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  AS
SUCH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT MULTICELL OR MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.  SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
INCREASE AND A WW WOULD HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 08/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30308426 31088470 32108481 33158484 33548435 33358369
            32778284 32448170 31498126 30328157 29978249 30308426 

MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S-SWWD OUT OF ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND THEN WWD INTO SWRN TX. WEAK
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE CNTRL TX PORTION OF
THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL ZONES OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SEWD AND SWWD
FROM THE LOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F OVER ERN TX...WITH AN
AXIS OF 1.75-2.0 INCH PWAT VALUES /PER GPS DERIVED TPW GUIDANCE/
EXTENDING NEWD OUT OF THE GOM. MEANWHILE...HOT AIR MASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100-105 F/ AND STEEP 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES ARE EMANATING OUT OF SW TX INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...CLUSTERS OF
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THEN MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP LAYER
OF NLY FLOW /PER AREA VWP DATA/. STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN FAVORABLY
JUXTAPOSED HIGH PWAT AND HOT/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IF SVR
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ENOUGH...THEN A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

..GARNER.. 08/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30269547 29629716 30019878 31509874 32539777 32909678
            32169584 30269547 

MD 1746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN GA AND SRN SC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261819Z - 261945Z

ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN GA AND SRN SC THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED NATURE OF
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SERN
STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN AL/SWRN GA...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
GOM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 90S F S OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER SRN GA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. FARTHER N OVER SRN
SC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HR OR SO...AND IS FOCUSING RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SURFACE THETA-E VALUES AS WELL AS MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...MULTICELLS AND PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE AIR MASS AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE CAPE AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS
AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

..GARNER.. 08/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32398368 33168179 32998020 32178021 30478189 30658369
            32398368 

MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261931Z - 262100Z

STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OF WRN VA...AND POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
THEY ENTER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA AND N CNTRL NC. THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.

WEAK S/W TROUGH IS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
MID/UPR OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS FEATURE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN
VA...WITH ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN VA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE DURING THE
LAST FEW HRS AND ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF CNTRL
VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F...WHICH IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8.5 C PER
KM BASED ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE A WARM NOSE RESIDES AT AROUND 600
MB...WHICH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO MAINTAIN SOME VIGOR AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD CNTRL VA AND
PERHAPS N CNTRL NC...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-30
KT SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORM TYPES WILL BE OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO SUB-SVR DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..GARNER.. 08/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36898079 38217908 38437786 37757741 36517793 35987882
            36168046 36898079 

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 272014Z - 272245Z

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT.

STORMS HAVE ERUPTED WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHERE HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL
TROUGH ALSO EXISTED ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
-10 C OVER NERN NC TO AROUND -8 C OVER SC. WIND PROFILES WERE
GENERALLY WEAK AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...BUT
HIGH LEVEL FLOW WAS SUBSTANTIAL. HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SWD MOVING CORES...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER
NC...WITH DECREASING HAIL SIZE EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

..JEWELL.. 08/27/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34277768 34717830 36137829 36447795 36537678 36187618
            35137566 34507642 34277768 

MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 291841Z - 292015Z

THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
            33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
            32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298 

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UT CO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...UT CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 291913Z - 292115Z

SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.

CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND EXPECT PERSISTENT
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN 30-40KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD-BEARING/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
30KT SHOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BUT DEEPLY MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CORES.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   37390907 37511002 37821021 38630996 39270953 39810907
            40480838 40550775 40030738 39230741 38650787 37730848
            37390907 

MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... FOR SERN AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...

VALID 292243Z - 300015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST.

AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS OVER
SERN AZ SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND UPPER 50S MEAN
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION BUT DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ZONE OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF SRN THROUGH ERN AZ WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE
18Z RAOB DATA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SOURCE FOR DEEPER
MESOSCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENTRAINMENT. NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31451102 32581164 33831144 34321061 34140962 33220912
            31650909 31451102 

MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NRN/CNTRL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 312159Z - 312300Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT ALONG SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
DRAPED THROUGH NRN/CNTRL KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH
LEADING TO POTENTIAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z.

RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS INCREASING BENEATH
A CIRRUS CANOPY ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WICHITA TO REPUBLIC
COUNTY AS OF 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF
2500 TO 4000 J/KG/. LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH/WRF-NMM AND NSSL
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE
QLCS/S WILL OCCUR...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL COLD
POOL/FRONTAL INTERACTIONS UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFTS. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH TIME THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 08/31/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39709867 40069718 40189602 40049558 39809553 39339602
            38839688 38329895 38060084 38690097 39709867 

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639... FOR NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639...

VALID 010029Z - 010130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...639...CONTINUES.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD INCREASE
FURTHER ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO NWRN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS SUCH...AREA DOWNSTREAM OF WW 638 WILL BE MONITORED FOR WFO
AREAL EXTENSION OR AN ADDITIONAL WW. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF
TSTMS INVOF NEB/IA/MO/KS BORDER.

AS OF 0025Z...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE SWRN
IA/NWRN MO BORDER SWWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD EXIST IN THE NEAR-TERM ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS. HERE...OUTFLOW
FROM WEAKENING TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH ONGOING
TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THIS INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM CLUSTERS AND MAY LEAD
TO FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH. FARTHER NE...A W/E-ORIENTATION OF TSTM
CLUSTERS SHOULD REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AMIDST PW VALUES NEAR 2
IN /PER 00Z TOP RAOB/.

..GRAMS.. 09/01/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38889921 39379782 40219622 40519601 40859449 40969366
            40819323 40519319 39919361 39589491 38999648 38579839
            38569871 38889921