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Storm Prediction Center Total news: 223
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports
August 30, 2010 00:35:04WW 0632 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SAD TO
30 NNW TUS TO 15 SSE PHX.
..DIAL..08/30/10
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
AZC007-009-011-021-300140-
AZ
. ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA GRAHAM GREENLEE
PINAL
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC Aug 6, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
August 6, 2010 08:41:32Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INCREASE STEADILY WITH TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY BY ROUGHLY
DAY 6 /WED. 8-11/.
DAYS 4-5 /MON. 8-9 AND TUE.8-10/...THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. HERE...BELT OF FASTER FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
-- WHICH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EWD WITH TIME.
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING EACH AFTERNOON...FUEL FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE -- WITH ORGANIZATION
AIDED BY AMPLE FLOW ALOFT. EVEN DURING THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER...ASCERTAINING DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL -- AND
AREAS WHERE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST -- IS COMPLICATED BY
SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THUS PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF
ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579 Status Reports
August 6, 2010 18:37:04WW 0579 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 579
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/06/10
ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE...GSP...RAH...ILM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 579
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-029-031-033-035-043-045-051-053-057-
059-063-067-073-077-079-081-085-089-091-093-097-103-105-107-109-
111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
147-149-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-181-183-187-
189-191-193-195-197-199-207-209-211-215-217-219-221-223-225-227-
231-233-235-237-241-245-247-249-251-255-257-259-261-263-265-267-
269-271-279-281-283-285-289-291-293-297-301-303-307-309-311-315-
317-319-061940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BANKS BARROW
BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY
BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE
BUTTS CANDLER CARROLL
CHATHAM CHATTAHOOCHEE CHEROKEE
CLARKE CLAYTON COBB
COLUMBIA COWETA CRAWFORD
CRISP DAWSON DEKALB
DODGE DOOLY DOUGLAS
EFFINGHAM ELBERT EMANUEL
EVANS FANNIN FAYETTE
FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN
FULTON GILMER GLASCOCK
GORDON GREENE GWINNETT
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
August 6, 2010 18:37:03WW 579 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC CW 061725Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 35 MILES NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS WATCH AREA
WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG BECOMING COMMON WITH LITTLE REMAINING
CINH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATCH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU
THE AFTERNOON WITH WET MICRO BURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS
ALONG WITH DEVELOPING COLD POOLS AS STORMS PROPAGATE E/SEWD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.
...HALES
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| SPC MD 1592
August 6, 2010 21:00:05MD 1592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579... FOR NRN AND CENTRAL GA/SC/PARTS OF SRN NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL GA/SC/PARTS OF SRN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...
VALID 062059Z - 062200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579
CONTINUES.
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN
VA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO THE SC PIEDMONT...AND THEN WNWWD
THROUGH NRN GA TO FAR NRN AL TO NERN MS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH ACTIVITY THAT HAD DEVELOPED
AND MOVED E/SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NWRN EXTENT OF WW
579. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL ALSO AID IN NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE
IS MODERATELY-VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-2500+ J PER KG/.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR MASS RESULTING IN WATER LOADING OF DOWNDRAFTS. ALSO...ANY COLD
POOL DEVELOPMENT /E.G. CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN GA INTO FAR WRN
SC WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AS COMPARED TO MID 90S
OVER EAST CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC/ SHOULD ENHANCE THE DOWNSTREAM
WIND THREAT.
..PETERS.. 08/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 34668499 34288317 34598174 34668047 34597914 34247907
33997925 33597901 33127916 33007894 32917895 32317993
31878049 31248092 31358156 31698191 31948229 31948262
31798293 31908443 31988510 32308498 32628513 34278545
34668499
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| SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
August 6, 2010 20:37:26SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
VALID 081200Z - 141200Z
AN IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A PERSISTENT PAC COAST TROUGH AND
EJECT NEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN/D3. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DESPITE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVELS. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN FAR ERN NV...AS WELL
AS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW/SLOW
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD MITIGATE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MON/D4...WHILE WEAK REMNANT TROUGHING REMAINS
OFF THE PAC COAST. DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...ROCKY MTNS...AND NM/ERN AZ. A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
ROCKY MTNS MON/D4 AS MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...BUT CURRENTLY THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUE/D5...WITH THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
INTO THE PAC NW. GFS MEDIUM-RANGE OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS SCENARIO IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DRIER SWLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...AND WOULD CONFINE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF NM/ERN
AZ THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIANCE IN
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...PREDICTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..ROGERS.. 08/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580
August 6, 2010 20:30:03WW 580 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 062030Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WYOMING TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BAKER MONTANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN WY AHEAD OF VORT
MAX NOTED MOVING NE VICINITY BIG HORN MTNS. WITH SELY FLOW OF MDTLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THRU WATCH INTO SERN MT...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. SUFFICIENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES GIVEN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22020.
...HALES
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580 Status Reports
August 6, 2010 22:32:06WW 0580 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 580
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CARBIN..08/06/10
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 580
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-062340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER
NDC011-087-062340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWMAN SLOPE
SDC019-063-081-062340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE HARDING LAWRENCE
WYC005-011-045-062340-
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 Status Reports
August 6, 2010 22:32:04WW 0581 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CARBIN..08/06/10
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...MSO...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC001-005-007-009-013-015-023-027-031-037-039-043-045-049-057-
059-067-069-071-077-093-095-097-099-107-062340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BLAINE BROADWATER
CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU
DEER LODGE FERGUS GALLATIN
GOLDEN VALLEY GRANITE JEFFERSON
JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON
MEAGHER PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWELL SILVER BOW
STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TETON
WHEATLAND
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC MD 1593
August 6, 2010 22:30:05MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062229Z - 070030Z
WHILE TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THAT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEAD TIME.
THUS...A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG A DAL-MWL-ABI LINE
WHERE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
OCCURRING BENEATH/WITHIN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITH
STRONGER WLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER ELY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
PERHAPS PROMOTING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MASS
EVACUATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE FOR STORM PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION...HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SCATTERED AND NEAR RANDOM PATTERN TO DOWNBURST WIND
POTENTIAL BENEATH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND
ASCENT...MARGINAL FLOW AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR TWO SLOW-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS COULD ALSO GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
..CARBIN.. 08/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32549623 31819697 31489905 31499976 31720043 32680127
32960113 33180033 33399904 33469877 33549832 33279678
32549623
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| SPC Aug 7, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
August 7, 2010 01:01:47SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN WY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN W...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL SERN STATES...
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W TO THE NRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW AT
00Z WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. DEFORMATION AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER NRN NV WILL LIKELY FOCUS STRONG
STORMS ACROSS SERN ORE AND SWRN ID THROUGH MID-EVENING WHERE AN AXIS
OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPES EXISTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE NRN NV IMPULSE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID...UT AND SW MT HAVE EVOLVED INTO
HIGH-BASED...QUASI-LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. INSPECTION OF 00Z RAOBS
AND VWP SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED IN MODEST WSWLY FLOW ABOVE
700 MB AND GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYER STRUCTURES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN WY
AND SCNTRL/SERN MT.
FARTHER E...A SEPARATE QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE E
AND SE ALONG/SW OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED ACROSS WRN SD THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS STRONGER
INHIBITION DEVELOPS. BEFORE THEN...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF SPIN-UP CAN BE EXPECTED.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACCELERATES THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF
ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN ND...NRN SD AND SWRN MN.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...SE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA...
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE CONGEALED INTO AN
ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER COASTAL SC AND CNTRL GA AT 00Z.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SWD AND DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
02Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
...SCNTRL/SERN AZ...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EVOLVED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE W/N PERIPHERY OF SURGING GULF OF CA MOISTURE IN
SCNTRL AZ AND ALONG THE HIGHER SERN AZ TERRAIN. EXPECT THAT AS
STORMS COLLAPSE...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SERVE TO AUGMENT
DOWNDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
..RACY.. 08/07/2010
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
August 7, 2010 00:00:04WW 582 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 062355Z - 070700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...
DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR TSTM CLUSTER NOW ENTERING WRN SD EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE GENERALLY E/ESE...AS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
PREFERENTIALLY ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND SW
OF WEAK NW/SE WARM FRONT. STORMS MAY BE ASSISTED BY WEAK UPR
IMPULSE MOVING E FROM NE WY...AND BY EXPECTED SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
OF SLY LLJ AFTER DARK. WHILE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY-BACKED LOW LVL
FLOW AND MORE MOIST AIR NEAR FRONT COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO
GIVEN DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...LIMITED STRENGTH OF LOW LVL
SHEAR AND QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE ALREADY ESTABLISHED /INCLUDING
CONSIDERABLE LOW LVL STORM OUTFLOW ALREADY PRESENT/...SUGGEST THAT
ANY SUCH RISK WILL REMAIN BRIEF.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 583 Status Reports
August 7, 2010 04:55:04WW 0583 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
..CARBIN..08/07/10
ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC021-055-083-085-109-070540-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAWSON MCCONE RICHLAND
ROOSEVELT WIBAUX
NDC007-025-033-053-089-105-070540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BILLINGS DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY
MCKENZIE STARK WILLIAMS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC Aug 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
August 7, 2010 05:47:46SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE DESERT SW...
...ERN PARTS OF NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING AT DAYBREAK
SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WCNTRL MN AHEAD OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/COINCIDENT WITH A SWLY LLJ. THIS
ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WILL CONTINUE
EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY REINFORCING A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT
ALONG THE MS RIVER.
IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
BY MID/UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...WILL SURGE NWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML. STRONG HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.
THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN ND...NERN SD AND
WCNTRL MN BY EVENING. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...BUT MODESTLY VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND MID-LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS OF 45 KTS WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELLULAR
RANGE. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS STORMS CONGEAL...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SWLY LLJ EVOLVES AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN CNTRL
MN. ACTIVITY COULD REACH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS.
...DESERT SW...
GULF OF CA MOISTURE SURGE IS UNDERWAY PER OBSERVATION AT ROCKY POINT
MEXICO. THIS SURGE IN COMBINATION WITH RAPID MOISTENING OWING TO
CURRENT NIGHTTIME SONORA MCS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ NWWD INTO THE CO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT MORNING CLOUD DEBRIS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE RIM COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE BY
MID-AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FARTHER NW IN THE CO RIVER VALLEY IN CONCERT WITH COMPARATIVELY
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA UPPER TROUGH.
WHILE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MULTICELL STORM
CLUSTERS MOVING NNE WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
...INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN REGION BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY FOCUS ALONG NW PERIPHERY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PLUME
OVER UT AND AHEAD OF A NRN BRANCH LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS ID
INTO SWRN MT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER SCNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
...SE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE SRN PLAINS...
DIABATIC HEATING...FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRESENCE OF A
WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE CAROLINAS/FL WWD INTO N TX AND SRN
OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS.
..RACY/HURLBUT.. 08/07/2010
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 Status Reports
August 7, 2010 05:45:05WW 0582 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES NORTH OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MBG TO
30 SSE BHK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599.
..EDWARDS..08/07/10
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-070640-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC MD 1601
August 7, 2010 11:39:05MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071138Z - 071415Z
EMBEDDED WITHIN ROUGHLY 500 NM LONG BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM SERN IA TO NERN ND...CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS BECOMING
BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER PORTIONS SWRN MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
TO GROW UPSCALE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS. RAIN RATES
1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALSO ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH TRANSLATION OF CONVECTION
WILL LIMIT DURATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW
NEAR CENTRAL PORTION ND/SD BORDER...NEAR ATY-FRM-OTM LINE. THIS
FRONT SHOULD DRIFT NE AWAY FROM TSTMS...BUT MAY BE RESTRAINED OR
EVEN SHUNTED TEMPORARILY BACK SWWD INVOF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION...SUCH AS LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX EVIDENT AT 11Z
BETWEEN ULM-ATY. BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM MSP INDICATES BROAD
REAR-INFLOW CURRENT 10-12 KFT AGL IN NWRN/TRAILING PRECIP REGION OF
THIS ACTIVITY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ERN FRINGE OF
RIBBON OF LOW-LEVEL DRYING IN SUBCLOUD LAYER IS ADVECTING FROM
DAKOTAS OVER THIS AREA. THIS IN TURN MAY ENCOURAGE ACCELERATION OF
STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS BELOW STORM BASE SUFFICIENT TO PENETRATE NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER IN A FEW LOCALES. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL WAA -- ASSOCIATED WITH GRADUALLY VEERING LLJ -- OFFSETTING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MOIST-ADIABATIC MID-UPPER LAPSE RATES TO
GENERATE MUCAPE IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...WITH STG BUOYANCY GRADIENT
CORRESPONDING TO WARM FRONTAL ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ONLY IN 25-35 KT RANGE...AND MOST HAIL THAT IS
PRODUCED SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SVR LIMITS.
..EDWARDS.. 08/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43519452 44239567 45059634 44859481 43819221 42649313
43519452
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| SPC Aug 7, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
August 7, 2010 16:08:47SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
MN/WI...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
UPPER RIDGE OVER NCENTRAL U.S. HAS FLATTENED PAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE SLY FLOW E OF SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL
ND/SD BORDER IS DELIVERING A MOISTURE RICH AND POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWD THRU THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE INCREASED
WESTERLIES HAVE ALLOWED AN IMPRESSIVE EML TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WHICH WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS TO NEAR
70F...WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MIXED-MODE OF
STORMS /DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES/DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MN
AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BY MID EVENING...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING MCS WITH
THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
...INTERIOR WESTERN U.S...
RAPID INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE NWD THROUGH AZ INTO SRN UT HAS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. THIS ESSENTIALLY HAS ELIMINATED ANY THREAT OF
ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK. ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE...BASICALLY FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VLY NWD THRU WESTERN
UT...THERE WILL BE A ZONE WHERE THE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HEATING CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CA PROVIDING
A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SUMMER TIME SLY FLOW...STORM MOTION WILL ALSO
AID THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH STORMS FROM MT SWD WHERE DCAPES COULD BE A HIGH AS 1500
J/KG ENHANCING THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN ANY HIGH BASED STORM. WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER CA...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO FOCUS A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUFFICIENT FOR
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS.
..HALES/JIRAK.. 08/07/2010
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| SPC MD 1602
August 7, 2010 15:14:05MD 1602 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF SE AR...NWRN MS...NE LA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE AR...NWRN MS...NE LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 071513Z - 071745Z
A PERSISTENT NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE COMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NORTH OF GREENVILLE
MS...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING EVIDENT...AND
A SURFACE COLD POOL NOW WELL DEVELOPED. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
VERY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW /LESS THAN 10
KT/...BUT RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VEERING PROFILES FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE SURFACE TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT IS ACTUALLY
CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST SOUTHERLY SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW ON THE ORDER
OF 20 KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING RECENT STORM
INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY. FURTHER ACCELERATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREENVILLE/ GREENWOOD AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI APPEAR
POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 17-19Z...BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF
VIGOROUS NEW CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...AND PERSIST ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF GREENVILLE.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...AND NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE 700-500 MB LAYER /WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
APPEARS LOW. BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH SLOW MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY
SUPPORTING EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS.
..KERR.. 08/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34159064 34079015 33598977 33279012 33249116 33519199
33679220 33869194 33749146 33789107 33959083 34159064
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| SPC Aug 7, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
August 7, 2010 17:24:59SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE ERN MO VALLEY...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD TO THE MID MO VALLEY...
AT 12Z SUNDAY...A TSTM CLUSTER /LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS/ IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS EARLY
PERIOD ACTIVITY...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN
MN INTO WI WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS ONGOING INTO LOWER MI. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE STORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWD INTO LOWER MI AIDING IN NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TROUGH THEN REACHING THE NERN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO 30-40 KT
WSWLY LLJ TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM CLUSTER AS IT SPREADS EWD. WEAKER
INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD MAY
ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
SPREAD INTO SRN LOWER MI SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLES SWD AND STORMS EITHER DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR
SPREAD INTO MI FROM WI/NRN IL.
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE OR MORE WEAKER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
THESE FEATURES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRONG WNWLY ULJ OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SRN WI WSWWD TO ERN NEB. MODELS INDICATED A SWD EXPANSION OF THE
SLIGHT WAS NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL GIVEN
EXPECTED SWD MOVEMENT OF TSTMS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS /PWAT 1.5-2+ INCHES/ ALONG AND S OF THE
BOUNDARY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500-3500 J PER KG/ FROM SERN SD/ERN NEB TO SRN
WI/FAR NRN IL BY PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO BE AROUND 40 KT WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...TSTM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH WWD
EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER UPPER FORCING WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSES AND TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR ONE OR MORE MCS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO
NRN IL AND PARTS OF IA.
...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOIST AIR MASS S OF WEAKENING/SAGGING FRONT DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY.
WHILE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS...A
FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS.
..PETERS.. 08/07/2010
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| SPC MD 1605
August 7, 2010 20:14:05MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN UT
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072013Z - 072215Z
A WEAK NNE/SSW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL UT.
THESE STORMS...AND THOSE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N INTO THE SALT
LAKE CITY METRO AREA...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. A
WW IS UNLIKELY.
A STRONG NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED OVER UT TODAY. ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE AIR...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG PER
MESOANALYSIS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
..JIRAK.. 08/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...
LAT...LON 40231302 40711270 40961238 40931200 40661183 39871223
39531247 39001278 38681307 38891353 40231302
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| SPC MD 1606
August 7, 2010 22:24:06MD 1606 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SCNTRL/SERN AZ
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 072223Z - 080030Z
SATELLITE SHOWS AN MCV AROUND 125 NM SW OF KTUS AT 22Z...MOVING NE
25-30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW SONORA STATE IN MEXICO AND WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN
SCNTRL/SERN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. OBVIOUSLY...MORNING MCV HAS
LEFT AN ENVELOPE OF SUBSIDENCE...AND DELAYED HEATING SEEMS TO BE
STUNTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION.
BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ON THE MODEST SIDE...THOUGH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND PRESENCE OF 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. CONCERN IS FOR BANDS OF STORMS ALIGNING WITH THE
MEAN SSW FLOW REGIME THAT WILL RESULT IN TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR.
ADDITIONALLY...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS SECONDARY TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
RISK. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AMIDST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
..RACY.. 08/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31831293 32941301 33061203 33201088 32270933 30870921
30481103 30591194 31291274 31831293
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585 Status Reports
August 8, 2010 02:54:03WW 0585 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/08/10
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...GRB...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC017-080340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLTON
WIC003-005-007-009-013-015-017-019-029-031-033-035-037-041-051-
061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-091-093-095-097-099-107-
109-113-115-119-125-129-135-137-139-141-080340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD
BROWN BURNETT CALUMET
CHIPPEWA CLARK DOOR
DOUGLAS DUNN EAU CLAIRE
FLORENCE FOREST IRON
KEWAUNEE LANGLADE LINCOLN
MANITOWOC MARATHON MARINETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO ONEIDA
OUTAGAMIE PEPIN PIERCE
POLK PORTAGE PRICE
RUSK ST. CROIX SAWYER
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585
August 8, 2010 02:54:02WW 585 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LM 080215Z - 081000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF EASTERN MINNESOTA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 100 MILES NORTHWEST
OF EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREEN BAY
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 584...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR DIFFUSE WNW/ESE-ORIENTED STNRY FRONT OVER
CNTRL WI AS LLJ VEERS AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT /REF MCD
1608/. DIFFUSE NATURE OF FRONT AND ABSENCE OF STRONGLY-FOCUSED UPR
LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT STORM MODE MAY REMAIN LARGELY
QUASI-DISCRETE. GIVEN SUCH A STORM MODE AND MODERATELY-SHEARED LOW
TO MID LVL WIND FIELD...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CIN AND THE FACT THAT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SOURCE OF STORM INITIATION. THUS...THE MAIN
SVR THREATS SHOULD BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THE STORMS BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TORNADO RISK WOULD OCCUR /MOST LIKELY OVER
NW AND W CNTRL WI/...AND PARTS OF THE WW MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO
TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 586 Status Reports
August 8, 2010 06:39:04WW 0586 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE VVV TO
35 WSW STC TO 30 NNW STC.
..EDWARDS..08/08/10
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 586
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-019-023-025-037-053-059-067-085-093-123-129-139-141-143-
151-163-171-080740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA CARVER CHIPPEWA
CHISAGO DAKOTA HENNEPIN
ISANTI KANDIYOHI MCLEOD
MEEKER RAMSEY RENVILLE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
SWIFT WASHINGTON WRIGHT
WIC005-017-033-035-091-093-095-107-109-080740-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON CHIPPEWA DUNN
EAU CLAIRE PEPIN PIERCE
POLK RUSK ST. CROIX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
August 8, 2010 06:34:59SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE SRN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE EJECTS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN W...BURSTS IN CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER W...A SMALLER UPPER IMPULSE WILL ENTER THE
PAC NW...WHICH MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
ORE/ID BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...SERN ORE AND SWRN ID...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING THE PAC
NW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL CAPE...A MARGINALLY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...AND FAIRLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL FOR FAST STORM MOTIONS/
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SERN ORE/SWRN ID...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
..GARNER.. 08/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
August 8, 2010 06:34:28SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. A 60+ KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND EXTEND
NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AIDING IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...NERN CA...NRN NV...SERN ORE...
SEASONABLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -10 DEG C/ ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS ADJACENT NERN CA AND
SERN ORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG DESTABILIZATION/STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...FAVORING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER FAVORED ELEVATED TERRAIN AS
WELL AS WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.
..GARNER.. 08/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Aug 8, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
August 8, 2010 20:49:47SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV/WRN UT
AND NWRN AZ...
CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST SENTENCE
...ERN NV/WRN UT/NWRN AZ...
A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD INTO PARTS OF
SERN NV AND NWRN AZ. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WHERE CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED EARLIER TODAY. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS
REGION COUPLED WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SPREADING NE WITH ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE LOWER
CO VALLEY TO GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
DEEP LAYER SLY WIND FIELDS/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SUGGEST
MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...15 PERCENT HAIL
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -12 C...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
HAIL. STORMS IN FAR NWRN AZ/SWRN UT MAY PRODUCE A FEW HAIL EVENTS
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING A DIAMETER OF 2 INCHES GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH STRONGER SHEAR
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE GSL AREA BY THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NWD INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
GIVEN THAT A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED JUST N OF THIS REGION...WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY.
THIS COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RECENT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS
OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEB...INVOF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST N OF A SURFACE LOW AND ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED EWD INTO NERN NEB TO CENTRAL IA. GIVEN VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY...A THREAT EXISTS FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT HAIL FROM NERN NEB/SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN AND
10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG E-W SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO. THUS...5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
OUTLOOK.
..PETERS.. 08/08/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010/
...CENTRAL/UPPER MS VALLEY...
MAIN PLAYERS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. FOCUS FOR INITIATION WILL BE THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND WHERE THEY WILL BE LOCATED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY.
OVERNIGHT MCS DECAYING CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL WITH A
TRAILING BOUNDARY WWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
SERN SD. BY MID AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 90S COUPLED WITH
RICH PWAT TO 2 INCHES MLCAPES AOA 4000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN
SD/ERN NEB ACROSS IA/SRN MN.
WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...STORM INITIATION
WILL BE TIED TO WHERE THE CINH WEAKENS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
BE LOCATED. ATTM BEST CONVERGENCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE JUST TO E OF
SURFACE LOW SD INTO SRN MN.
INITIAL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A RISK OF
BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND DEGREE OF
CAPE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A LARGER SCALE MCS/BOW AND
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/WI/IL WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS.
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE WWD ACROSS NEB INTO NWRN KS GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONVERGENCE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT INITIAL PULSE ACTIVITY COULD FORM
CLUSTERS WITH ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...UT/NV...
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD AS ONE S/WV IMPULSE ROTATES NEWD ACROSS SRN NV INTO UT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER MAY BE A PROBLEM
ACROSS THE RISK AREA...POTENTIALLY LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER HEATING COUPLED WITH COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS ERN NV/SWRN UT IN PROXIMITY TO THE S/WV
TROUGH WITH LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. BY THIS EVENING STORMS COULD ALSO IMPACT FURTHER NE TO GSL
AREA.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 Status Reports
August 8, 2010 20:46:05WW 0587 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..08/08/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-033-035-041-059-063-069-081-091-093-109-119-141-143-147-
149-151-167-189-193-195-197-082140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE
CLAY DICKINSON EMMET
FRANKLIN HANCOCK HUMBOLDT
IDA KOSSUTH LYON
OBRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO
PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SIOUX
WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH
WRIGHT
MNC013-033-043-047-063-091-101-105-133-147-161-165-082140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT
FREEBORN JACKSON MARTIN
MURRAY NOBLES ROCK
STEELE WASECA WATONWAN
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587
August 8, 2010 20:46:04WW 587 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 081935Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MASON CITY IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH BECOMING VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THE MLCAPES OF 4000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO STORMS EVOLVING INTO
FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS FOR AN ENHANCED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1614
August 8, 2010 20:45:05MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR PARTS OF SERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN NEBRASKA...SWRN MINNESOTA/NWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN NEBRASKA...SWRN
MINNESOTA/NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587...
VALID 082044Z - 082215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587
CONTINUES.
GIVEN THE LARGE MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE CAPE...A FOCUSED AREA OF DEEP
LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS ALREADY BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR O NEILL NEB.
AND...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY WARM
AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNBURSTS...WITH A CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD
POOL POSSIBLY SURGING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTH OF SIOUX
FALLS...ACROSS THE SIOUX CITY AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 23-00Z.
..KERR.. 08/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...
LAT...LON 42219833 42859790 43429791 43399591 42549551 41879621
41929736 42219833
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588
August 8, 2010 20:15:02WW 588 SEVERE TSTM AZ NV UT 082015Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM MDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
SOUTHWEST UTAH
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF KINGMAN ARIZONA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DELTA
UTAH. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...
DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH ROTATING NEWD ACROSS
SRN NV/WRN UT WITH A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WITH 40 KT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ENHANCED WIND AND HAIL
THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 589 Status Reports
August 8, 2010 22:58:04WW 0589 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ONL TO
30 WSW YKN TO 20 WNW YKN.
..SPC..08/08/10
ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-027-051-107-119-139-167-179-090040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE CEDAR DIXON
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
STANTON WAYNE
SDC027-135-090040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY YANKTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 589
August 8, 2010 22:58:02WW 589 TORNADO NE SD 082105Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...WW 588...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN NEB IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 40 KT OF SHEAR. HAVE
UPGRADED PARTS OF THE ORIGINAL SEVERE WATCH AS POTENTIAL FOR NOT
ONLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS AS THEY DEVELOP SLOWLY E/SE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...HALES
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1617
August 8, 2010 22:48:08MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN...WRN IA...NCNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...ERN NEB...SRN MN...WRN IA...NCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082247Z - 082345Z
SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NERN NEB AND EXTREME SERN SD AT
2230Z. COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUB-SYNOPTIC
CIRCULATION AND THE MCV SHOULD TRACK EWD TOWARD NWRN IA THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. PREFERENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS INTO 3000+ J/KG MLCAPES AND
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP S
OF THE WATCHES INTO ECNTRL NEB WITH TIME THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NRN PARTS OF
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN IA AND EXTREME
SRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING...ALONG PERIPHERY OF EXTREME INSTABILITY.
A SEPARATE WEATHER REGIME MAY YIELD A LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS
DEVELOPING NWD FROM CNTRL KS TOWARD SCNTRL NEB. HERE...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AMIDST A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLCAPES OF
2000+ J/KG WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AS A RESULT OF STORMS POSSIBLY BLEEDING OUT OF THE CURRENT WW/S INTO
ECNTRL NEB AND EVOLVING NWD OUT OF NCNTRL KS...A NEW WW OR LOCAL
EXTENSIONS MAY BE REQUIRED IN ERN NEB/WRN IA AND/OR CNTRL KS.
..RACY.. 08/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...
DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 43199916 44319323 42639322 41439497 40779662 39859762
38829825 38169888 38440025 39480013 41449955 41659951
43199916
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592 Status Reports
August 9, 2010 01:00:05WW 0592 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
....08/09/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-047-049-063-069-073-
075-077-079-081-083-085-091-099-109-127-133-147-151-153-155-157-
161-165-169-171-187-189-195-197-090240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDUBON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CARROLL CASS
CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD DALLAS
EMMET FRANKLIN GREENE
GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HARDIN HARRISON
HUMBOLDT JASPER KOSSUTH
MARSHALL MONONA PALO ALTO
POCAHONTAS POLK POTTAWATTAMIE
POWESHIEK SAC SHELBY
STORY TAMA WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT
NEC011-021-023-037-039-053-055-077-141-153-155-173-175-177-179-
090240-
NE
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592
August 9, 2010 01:00:03WW 592 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 090005Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN IOWA
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MASON CITY IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...WW 588...WW
589...WW 590...WW 591...
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NE NEB THIS EVE. AREA
WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERN PART OF SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK MAINLY ESE ACROSS IA TOWARD I-35...WHILE WRN/SRN PART
OF MCS TURNS MORE TO THE RIGHT AND TRACKS SE INVOF THE MO RVR VLY AS
LLJ VEERS AND STRENGTHENS LATER THIS EVE. DEEP SHEAR IS
MODEST...AND UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE. BUT
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY/RICH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A CONTINUED RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY SVR
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590 Status Reports
August 9, 2010 00:59:05WW 0590 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
....08/09/10
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...GID...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC051-063-065-089-105-123-141-147-163-167-183-195-090240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELLIS GOVE GRAHAM
JEWELL LINCOLN MITCHELL
OSBORNE PHILLIPS ROOKS
RUSSELL SMITH TREGO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590
August 9, 2010 00:59:04WW 590 SEVERE TSTM KS 082305Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...WW 588...WW 589...
DISCUSSION...SMALL AREA OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR INTERSECTION OF
DEEP EML PLUME WITH MORE MOIST BUT STILL STRONGLY-HEATED ENVIRONMENT
IN ERN KS MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP CAPABILITY FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...DESPITE WEAK W TO WNWLY DEEP SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591 Status Reports
August 9, 2010 00:59:03WW 0591 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
....08/09/10
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-015-019-025-037-049-053-059-067-079-085-093-103-123-129-
131-139-141-143-157-163-171-090240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BROWN CARVER
CHISAGO DAKOTA GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANDIYOHI
LE SUEUR MCLEOD MEEKER
NICOLLET RAMSEY RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE
SIBLEY WABASHA WASHINGTON
WRIGHT
WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-091-093-095-107-109-119-121-
090240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DUNN EAU CLAIRE
JACKSON PEPIN PIERCE
POLK RUSK ST. CROIX
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591
August 9, 2010 00:59:02WW 591 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 082330Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 55 MILES EAST OF EAU
CLAIRE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...WW 588...WW
589...WW 590...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED RECENTLY ALONG WEAK W/E BOUNDARY N OF
THE MSP AREA. OTHER STORMS HAVE AT THE SAME TIME DEVELOPED IN AREA
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN SW MN. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY LIKELY IS
BEING ENHANCED BY PASSING UPR LVL IMPULSE /PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/... AND...IN ERN MN...BY SFC HEATING. LOW LVL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK/DISORGANIZED. BUT PRESENCE OF HI PW WITH
MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP WNWLY SHEAR /PER VWP AND PROFILER
DATA/ MAY SUPPORT ESE-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG
WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC MD 1622
August 9, 2010 02:41:05MD 1622 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...EXTREME NWRN IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...SW WI...ERN IA...EXTREME NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 090240Z - 090415Z
BOW ECHO WAS MOVING E AT 45 KTS THROUGH CNTRL IA WITH STRONG/SEVERE
WINDS GUSTS. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST THAT THE BOW WILL REACH ERN END
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 AROUND 0330-04Z.
CORRIDOR OF 3000+ J/KG CAPE EXISTS FROM CNTRL IA EWD INTO SW WI AND
NW IL AND THE LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AT LEAST TO THE
MS RIVER...SUPPORTED BY 30 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
INHIBITIVE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. BUT...SUCH STRONG CAPE AND
MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARGUE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE EVENTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE TO THE BOW.
A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY.
..RACY.. 08/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 44069292 44098980 42938949 41818996 41499067 41239227
42269227 42299208 42929206 42959298 44069292
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594
August 9, 2010 04:31:03WW 594 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI 090310Z - 091000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
OTTUMWA IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 591...WW 592...WW 593...
DISCUSSION...DESPITE INCREASING CIN...IA MCS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAPE...HI PW...AND LOW LVL
UPLIFT PROVIDED BY EXISTING COLD POOL. AS COLD POOL CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE W-E BENEATH MODERATE WLY MID LVL FLOW...NERN PART OF MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE TOWARD SW WI/NW IL...WITH
ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUING TO YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS. ON TRAILING SWRN PART OF ELONGATING COLD POOL...SETUP SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF REGENERATIVE/TRAINING STORMS AS
SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BOW...WITH THE BOWING
SEGMENTS TENDING TO TURN MORE SE TOWARD S CNTRL IA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...CORFIDI
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| SPC MD 1623
August 9, 2010 03:15:05MD 1623 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ECNTRL NEB...CNTRL IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NEB...CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 090314Z - 090615Z
TEXTBOOK CLASSIC CONCURRENT FORWARD AND BACKWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB AND CNTRL IA LATE THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT A SEVERAL HOUR EPISODE OF TRAINING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS WILL TRAIL THE BOW ECHO MOVING INTO ERN IA. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" ARE LIKELY...PRIMARILY IN A 30-50 MILE
CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM 30N KOMA-30S KFOD-35SW KDBQ.
A 35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT STRONGLY BUOYANT PARCELS
ATOP THE DEEPENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE BOW ECHO
MOVING INTO ERN IA. 00Z OAX SOUNDING SAMPLED A VERY MOIST PROFILE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. FREEZING
LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 16.5KFT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WITH STORMS. CONCERN IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BACKBUILD FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE GENERATION POINT NEAR OMAHA. ACTIVITY WILL
THEN TRAIN EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT.
..RACY.. 08/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41749689 42099607 42329482 42399330 42419207 42359075
42039063 41759116 41589202 41569327 41569442 41509555
41549661 41749689
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594 Status Reports
August 9, 2010 06:40:04WW 0594 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ALO TO
45 NW DBQ TO 35 W LNR TO 15 S LSE TO 30 NW VOK.
..EDWARDS..08/09/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-177-187-195-090740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY
JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE
IAC003-011-019-031-039-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-
107-113-115-117-121-123-125-135-139-163-175-179-181-183-
090740-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BENTON BUCHANAN
CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON
DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE
HENRY IOWA JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES
KEOKUK LINN LOUISA
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
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| SPC MD 1626
August 9, 2010 08:50:05MD 1626 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594... FOR PORTIONS IA...SRN WI...NRN IL.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...SRN WI...NRN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...
VALID 090706Z - 090900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594
CONTINUES.
WW 594 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD LOCALLY ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL WI
INCLUDING MSN AREA. SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AND
EWD EXTENT...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR STG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
APCH LM BEFORE SYSTEM APPRECIABLY WEAKENS.
LARGE MCS IS MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 40 KT OVER SWRN WI...AND
ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN IL. THIS COMPLEX IS FRONTED BY BOW
ECHO AND BACKED BY WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL WITH 2-4 MB 2-HOURLY
PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS. ACTIVITY ALSO IS MOVING THROUGH FAVORABLY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F.
HOWEVER...COMPLEX HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE MEASURED SVR GUSTS AT ANY OF
SEVERAL SFC STATIONS THAT IT HAS CROSSED OVER ERN IA AND SWRN
WI...WITH IR CLOUD TOPS UNDERGOING GEN WARMING TREND. ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOVING INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL
STABILIZATION...BOTH WITH TIME VIA SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AND WITH
EWD EXTENT INTO LOWER-THETAE AIR MASS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG IN IMMEDIATELY
PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS OVER SWRN WI...TAPERING EWD TO 500-1000 J/KG
VICINITY MKE...WITH VERY SHARP STRENGTHENING OF MLCINH ALONG LM
SHORELINE AND SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AROUND 30 KT ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS AREA...AND ALSO BEHIND COMPLEX
AND ATOP OUTFLOW POOL WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAILING
TSTMS...THOUGH PRIMARY THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES 1.5-2.5
INCH/HOUR EXACERBATED BY TRAINING OF PRECIP CORES. GRADUALLY
VEERING/30-45 KT LLJ WILL FOSTER STG LOW LEVEL WAA AND LIFT ATOP
TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SUPPORT OF MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE
THREAT OVER IA...ALTHOUGH SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS MRGL.
..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43408791 43538984 44409059 44919083 45519061 45549206
45979218 46369123 46148979 45508913 45418839 45568645
45608489 45048448 44218497 43488629 43408791
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| SPC MD 1628
August 9, 2010 20:49:05MD 1628 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS/WESTERN NEB/SOUTHWEST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 092048Z - 092215Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/WESTERN
NEB/SOUTHWEST SD...AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST KS...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST
SD...AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME AND/OR WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEB INTO SOUTHWEST SD. VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..GUYER.. 08/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 44280341 43860158 40850103 39630199 40190442 41500364
43390392 44280341
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 595 Status Reports
August 10, 2010 00:00:09WW 0595 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..08/09/10
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-013-023-025-033-041-049-053-055-057-061-075-
087-089-101-105-100040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURKE DIVIDE
DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER
MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN
MERCER MOUNTRAIL RENVILLE
SLOPE STARK WARD
WILLIAMS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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| SPC MD 1632
August 10, 2010 00:00:05MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME NERN CO...SW NEB AND NW KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SW NEB AND NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 092253Z - 100030Z
THERE HAS BEEN AN UPSWING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ON THE LOWER PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
AIDED BY INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
/TIED TO WRN CO IMPULSE/ BRUSHING THE UNSTABLE /MLCAPES TO 3000 J
PER KG/ BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT
CHAOTIC AND WEAK AT THE MOMENT...SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES NE AND SELY FLOW INCREASES.
THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY HEALTHY CAPE VALUES AND DIURNAL INCREASE
IN THE SLY LLJ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONTINUED BLOSSOMING OF STORMS.
PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY
AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES.
..RACY.. 08/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40770441 41510339 41440017 40689955 39609929 39180081
38830265 39890470 40770441
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 596
August 10, 2010 00:00:04WW 596 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 092330Z - 100700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
WESTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 530 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS TO 50 MILES NORTH OF MULLEN NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 595...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL HI PLNS THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY TUE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS MOIST LOW LVL ELY FLOW SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS BENEATH AREA OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE MOVING NNE FROM ERN CO...IN
TANDEM WITH STRONGER UPR IMPULSE IN UT. DEGREE OF SBCAPE AND STEEP
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND DESPITE
MODEST/WEAKLY ORGANIZED WIND FIELD. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE LOCATION OF ANY SUCH EVENT WILL... HOWEVER...
REQUIRE ASSISTANCE FROM LOW LVL MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS THAT
ATTM REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION/LONGEVITY/STRENGTH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...CORFIDI
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1635
August 10, 2010 02:47:06MD 1635 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... FOR NE CO...CNTRL/WRN NEB AND NW KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...CNTRL/WRN NEB AND NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...
VALID 100246Z - 100415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596
CONTINUES.
REPLAY OF REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT A COLD POOL GENERATED
SURGE HAS OCCURRED OVER EXTREME NERN CO AND THE SRN PART OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE. THE CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS HAS RESULTED IN A
WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING MCS AT MID-EVENING.
THE MATURING MCS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER SUPPORT
TRAVELING NE TOWARD WY...BUT A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL...
DOWNSTREAM WEAK BUT BUOYANT ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ALIVE THROUGH LATE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY...INCREASING INHIBITION TO BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS MAY
RESULT IN ACTIVITY BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BY THE TIME IT REACHES
CNTRL NEB/NCNTRL KS.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRONGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SWRN-CNTRL NEB...GENERALLY BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY 6 AND
INTERSTATE 80.
..RACY.. 08/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39549862 39170009 39090167 39290244 39640318 40170364
41980415 42960232 42449953 41429864 39549862
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1636
August 10, 2010 04:16:05MD 1636 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 100415Z - 100715Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS CNTRL IL IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED FROM 25ESE
KBRL-KBMI-KDNV THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
EVENING...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1014 MB HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS HIGH HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAPIDLY COOLING
CLOUD TOPS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL IL. 00Z ILX SOUNDING EXHIBITED
NEARLY 2.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND VERY WEAK CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR. FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 17KFT AND A TENDENCY FOR
ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD NWWD INTO THE WEAK SWLY LLJ WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF TRAINING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION LOADING IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
COUPLE OF GUSTY/SVR WIND GUSTS.
..RACY.. 08/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40979036 40938931 40728801 40348766 40088787 40018873
40128966 40349075 40979036
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| SPC Aug 10, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
August 10, 2010 12:37:48SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...
...EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN/IA/NEB...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN TONIGHT. A LONG-LIVED MCS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO MN/IA AND HAS DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND FLOW FIELDS...LIKELY TO SUPPRESS STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST ND/WESTERN MN INTO
IA/NEB. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN.
...ID/MT...
A MID LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER ORE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ID/MT LATER TODAY. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN ID AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MT DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
..HART/GARNER.. 08/10/2010
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| SPC MD 1639
August 10, 2010 11:29:06MD 1639 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MN...NRN IA.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 101128Z - 101430Z
ORGANIZED MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE COMING
TOGETHER OVER DISCUSSION AREA FROM INITIALLY SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION. RAIN RATES 2-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST
CORES...WITH MERGING AND TRAINING PROBABLE IN SOME AREAS TO ENHANCE
HAZARD.
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLIER IA
CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL IL ACROSS NERN/N-CENTRAL MO TO
SWRN IA...THEN INTERSECTING QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
NWRN IA. FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB TO LOW OVER
CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD APPEARS TO BE RELATED
TO COMBINATION OF PRESSURE FALLS IN WAKE OF NWRN IA/SWRN MN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND PROXIMITY OF MCV. ELEVATED WARM FRONT NEAR
850 MB -- WHERE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO LFC IS TAKING PLACE -- IS ALIGNED NEAR AN FSD-DVN LINE AND SHOULD
DRIFT NEWD. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
NEB/SD...PRECEDED BY MCV OVER CENTRAL SD THAT RESULTED FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. THESE SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION...INVOF 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ.
RIBBON OF PW 2-2.25 IS EVIDENT N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IMMEDIATE
INFLOW REGION OF ZONE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM SWRN MN
SEWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL IA.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD WITH NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS
EXPECTED OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FROM
SW-NE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...IN NRN IA AND SWRN MN --
AFTER PRIMARY CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT MOVED NEWD OUT OF NEB OVERTAKES
WAA-RELATED BAND. SRN BOUND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EVENT MAY WANE AFTER
ABOUT 14Z AS FLOW IN ELEVATED WAA LAYER VEERS/WEAKENS.
..EDWARDS.. 08/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42349218 42499426 42719566 44149546 44619408 44069217
43479130 42709113 42419194 42349218
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Tornado Watch 598
August 10, 2010 18:50:03WW 598 TORNADO IA MN 101850Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS W EDGE OF WATCH EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WITH
FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN LOW LEVELS...SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS OVERALL LINE DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES
NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
...HALES
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| SPC MD 1646
August 11, 2010 16:40:08MD 1646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY INTO WV
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN OH/NORTHERN KY INTO WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111639Z - 111845Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA/OH TO WV/NORTHERN KY.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY FAR SOUTHWEST OH/FAR
NORTHERN KY...AS WELL IN A HOT/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ADJACENT WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN OH TO
WESTERN WV/FAR NORTHEAST KY. WHILE SOME STRONGER HIGH LEVEL FLOW
EXISTS PER WSR-88D VWPS FROM IND/ILN...RELATIVELY WEAK /20 KT OR
LESS/ AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BELOW 6 KM WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLY ORGANIZED STORMS. NONETHELESS...GIVEN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE BUOYANCY...THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 08/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 38458615 39728594 40068505 40148273 39378110 38188223
38458615
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 600 Status Reports
August 12, 2010 08:31:04WW 0600 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BIS TO
50 NE BIS TO 25 SW DVL TO 20 NW DVL TO 55 NNW DVL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650.
..EDWARDS..08/12/10
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 600
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-120940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
NDC003-005-017-019-027-031-039-043-063-071-073-077-091-093-095-
097-103-120940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
CAVALIER EDDY FOSTER
GRIGGS KIDDER NELSON
RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND
STEELE STUTSMAN TOWNER
TRAILL WELLS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1651
August 12, 2010 11:02:06MD 1651 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS MD...DE...DC ALONG WITH SMALL ADJACENT SECTION OF NERN VA.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MD...DE...DC ALONG WITH SMALL ADJACENT
SECTION OF NERN VA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121101Z - 121300Z
STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND --
INCLUDING GUSTS BELOW 50 KT SVR LIMITS THAT STILL COULD TOPPLE SOME
LIMBS/TREES -- ON EITHER SIDE OF NRN/CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ATLANTIC. ATTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL AND
CONFINED SPATIALLY FOR WW.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVE MIN IN LOW-LEVEL STATIC
STABILITY AND IN MLCINH W OF BAY ACROSS POTOMAC...CORRESPONDING TO
JUXTAPOSITION OF POCKET OF SFC TEMPS LOW 80S F WITH SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 70S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AMIDST 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. .WHILE RICH AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PRECLUDE FORMATION OF INTENSE COLD POOL THROUGH RELATED LACK OF
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...MEAN WIND AND SHEAR VECTORS ARE ALIGNED
APPROXIMATELY NORMAL TO CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION. THIS INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AMBIENT KINEMATIC REINFORCEMENT LIKELY FOR ANY
SUSTAINED VERTICAL CIRCULATION THAT CAN DEVELOP A REAR-INFLOW JET.
CINH INCREASES SLIGHTLY WITH SEWD EXTENT AWAY FROM BAY ATTM...AND
INCREASINGLY DENSE PRECONVECTIVE CLOUD/ANVIL COVER MAY PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE INSOLATION AFTER SUNRISE AND PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF
CONVECTION OVER DOWNSHEAR AREAS OF DELMARVA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ROBUST...AND COMPLEX MAY PEAK W OF OR OVER BAY. MEANWHILE...COMPLEX
MAY BACKBUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS PORTIONS DC METRO AREA AND SEWD DOWN
TIDAL POTOMAC.
..EDWARDS.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39137739 39287694 39597663 39357596 39067539 38987531
38897532 38787515 38807506 38457504 38287511 38027525
38157650 39137739
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC MD 1653
August 12, 2010 16:42:05MD 1653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... FOR SOUTHEASTERN VA AND EASTERN NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VA AND EASTERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...
VALID 121641Z - 121815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
CONTINUES.
WHILE INITIAL BOW ECHO HAS MOVED EAST OF THE SERN MD COAST...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE BOW STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM N OF A RIC TO
ORF LINE. A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY SHIFT SEWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO A WARM AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY RANGING FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE 90S AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...THE THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...A COLD POOL MAY EVOLVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AT THAT TIME.
..IMY.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 37867881 37857741 37867591 37007562 35847531 34637501
34547593 34557727 34557782 36007822 37117855 37867881
Read more - [Read more] |
| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602
August 12, 2010 18:51:03WW 602 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA CW 121850Z - 130100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND
PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUM TO 50 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS NRN VA AHEAD OF
VORT MAX/TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS PA. WITH AIR MASS AGAIN VERY
MOIST/MDTLY UNSTABLE...THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 32025.
...HALES
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| SPC MD 1655
August 12, 2010 17:53:05MD 1655 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR S CNTRL PA...WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA AND WRN MD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL PA...WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA AND WRN MD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121752Z - 121915Z
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF NRN VA AND WRN MD.
CURRENT AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM SWRN PA INTO NRN VA ALONG A WEAK SFC CONFLUENT
BOUNDARY. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...BULK SHEAR VALUES
APPROACHING 40 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THESE STORMS.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 40467919 40457885 40357850 40087797 39857756 39577712
39287665 39007629 38707607 38107577 37887590 37907663
37867779 37857848 37847879 38307890 38877921 39337943
39707968 40087965 40327953 40467919
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| SPC MD 1657
August 12, 2010 20:46:06MD 1657 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601... FOR SRN VA AND NERN NC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND NERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...
VALID 122045Z - 122145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 601. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IN TIME OR NEW WATCH.
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE CURRENTLY
INCREASING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NERN NC ASSOCIATED
WITH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED FROM NERN NC SWWD TO
THE NC/SC BORDER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FURTHER SOUTH AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY HAVE
MORE OF A PULSE TYPE NATURE.
FARTHER N OF THE WATCH...SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL VA AND WRN
MD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SEWD INTO WW 601. THIS...ALONG WITH
CURRENT STORMS OVER NERN NC...MAY REQUIRE A NEW WATCH OR EXTENSION
OF WW 601.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34537783 37817876 37837585 34547501 34537783
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| SPC Tornado Watch 603
August 12, 2010 20:28:04WW 603 TORNADO IA MN ND SD 122025Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601...WW 602...
DISCUSSION...PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING ALONG AN E-W
BOUNDARY FROM NE SD INT W CENTRAL MN...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IS NEW
STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM WITHIN THE BAND OF MIDLEVEL CONVECTION OVER
ERN SD...OR DEVELOP NEAR OR W OF THE MIDLEVEL BAND. STILL...THE
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE TORNADO THREAT GIVEN SOME TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD IN NE SD...WHICH MAY BE OFFSET BY RAIN REINFORCING THE
BOUNDARY IN MN. FARTHER S...INSTABILITY IS STRONG...BUT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR GRADUALLY WEAKENS CLOSER TO THE SD/NEB BORDER.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25020.
...THOMPSON
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| SPC Tornado Watch 603 Status Reports
August 12, 2010 22:52:05WW 0603 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 603
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..08/12/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...MPX...FGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 603
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC119-167-122340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LYON SIOUX
MNC011-023-041-051-067-073-081-083-093-101-105-111-117-121-127-
129-133-145-149-151-153-155-167-173-122340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG STONE CHIPPEWA DOUGLAS
GRANT KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE
LINCOLN LYON MEEKER
MURRAY NOBLES OTTER TAIL
PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD
RENVILLE ROCK STEARNS
STEVENS SWIFT TODD
TRAVERSE WILKIN YELLOW MEDICINE
NDC077-081-122340-
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| SPC MD 1659
August 12, 2010 22:38:06MD 1659 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WRN KS TO SCNTRL NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS TO SCNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122237Z - 130030Z
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED AND DEEPENED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KS
INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM
100-106F. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NW OF GCK...EXTENDING TO NEAR HSI.
THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS LIKELY
BASED ABOVE 700 MB WITH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE ONE INCH. IT APPEARS
STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO LOW RH
VALUES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER ENHANCING THE SFC WIND THREAT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
..DARROW.. 08/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38060179 39080017 40329869 39829794 38499920 37600120
38060179
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| SPC Tornado Watch 604
August 13, 2010 00:00:04WW 604 TORNADO MN WI 122340Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY EVENING FROM 640 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT
CLOUD MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANKATO MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 602...WW 603...
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING NEWD AT 40-45 KT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO E CENTRAL MN AND THE MSP AREA THIS EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS E CENTRAL MN IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE OF THE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN W CENTRAL MN BEYOND ABOUT 01Z GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW APPROACHING
CENTRAL MN. STILL...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY COULD PROMOTE MAINLY BRIEF TORNADOES AS IT AND THE LINE OF
STORMS INTERACT THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...THOMPSON
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| SPC Tornado Watch 604 Status Reports
August 13, 2010 02:35:04WW 0604 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BOTHWELL..08/13/10
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-009-013-015-019-025-037-049-053-059-065-079-085-095-097-
103-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171-130340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH
BROWN CARVER CHISAGO
DAKOTA GOODHUE HENNEPIN
ISANTI KANABEC LE SUEUR
MCLEOD MILLE LACS MORRISON
NICOLLET RAMSEY RICE
SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY
STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT
WIC093-095-109-130340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIERCE POLK ST. CROIX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605 Status Reports
August 13, 2010 04:38:04WW 0605 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/13/10
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-015-021-029-037-041-043-045-047-051-059-085-089-093-
130540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BURLEIGH DICKEY
EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX
STARK STUTSMAN
SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-089-107-115-117-119-129-
130540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK
HAND HUGHES HYDE
MCPHERSON POTTER SPINK
STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605
August 13, 2010 04:38:03WW 605 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 130320Z - 131000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1020 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 604...
DISCUSSION...MCS OVER SW ND/NW SD WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR OF REMAINING
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE
PRIMARY EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
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| SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606
August 13, 2010 06:20:03WW 606 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 130620Z - 131400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 120 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 605...
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ATOP
SHALLOW OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS AS LOW-LVL WAA/RICH MOISTURE
INFLOW STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE CONTINUING EWD FROM WY.
PRESENCE OF DEEP EML ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ROTATING STRUCTURES THAT...GIVEN HIGH
PW...COULD YIELD DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
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