Weather Related News- Weather Warnings

SPC Tornado Watch 652 Status Reports

Fri, 10 Sep 2010 00:53:03 GMT

WW 0652 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BVX
TO 40 ESE POF.
..SMITH..09/10/10
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 652 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
ARC031-035-037-093-111-123-100140-
AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD            CRITTENDEN          CROSS               
MISSISSIPPI          POINSETT            ST. FRANCIS         
MOC069-155-100140-
MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN              PEMISCOT            
TNC033-045-047-053-075-097-157-167-100140-
TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT             DYER                FAYETTE             
GIBSON               HAYWOOD             LAUDERDALE          
SHELBY               TIPTON

SPC Tornado Watch 652

Fri, 10 Sep 2010 00:53:02 GMT

WW 652 TORNADO AR MO TN 092325Z - 100400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY EVENING FROM 625 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALNUT
RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 650...WW 651...
DISCUSSION...SMALL REGION INVOF NW-SE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/QSTNRY FRONT
WITH LOW LCLS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW LVL STORM ROTATION/BRIEF
TORNADOES THIS EVE AS LOW/MID LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS
OF T.D HERMINE SKIRT THE REGION.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CORFIDI

SPC Tornado Watch 651 Status Reports

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 22:19:03 GMT

WW 0651 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 651
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..09/09/10
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 651 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
NDC001-007-011-025-033-037-041-053-057-059-065-085-087-089-
092340-
ND 
.    NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS                BILLINGS            BOWMAN              
DUNN                 GOLDEN VALLEY       GRANT               
HETTINGER            MCKENZIE            MERCER              
MORTON               OLIVER              SIOUX               
SLOPE                STARK               
SDC031-105-092340-
SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON               PERKINS             
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC MD 1807

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 21:40:06 GMT

MD 1807 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN AR...EXTREME WRN TN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...EXTREME WRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 092139Z - 092315Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN AR INTO WRN TN...WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE AND COOL AIR TO THE N. CONTINUED HEATING AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INTERSECTING THE WARM FRONT.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 70 F ARE
GENERALLY NEEDED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THUS...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...NWD
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE LIMITED.  AREA VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE GENERAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2.
THUS...STORMS OVER CNTRL AND NRN AR MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS THEY
NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE,
..JEWELL.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON   34919172 35329309 35809317 36199220 36089122 35899032
35868939 35578917 35158960 35009052 34919172

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650 Status Reports

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:41:11 GMT

WW 0650 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0650 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:41:02 GMT

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 092035Z - 100400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM MDT THU SEP 9 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF WILLISTON NORTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM SE MT INTO
WRN SD ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE S OF A WARM FRONT IN ND...AND AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL
TROUGH MOVES NEWD FROM WRN WY.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN SW ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INITIAL CELLULAR STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. 
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ACROSS WRN SD AND ERN MT...AS WELL AS A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N
OF THE WARM FRONT IN ND...WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...THOMPSON

SPC MD 1806

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:06:06 GMT

MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR N CNTRL AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 092005Z - 092100Z
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN
AR...ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESIDING TO THE N OF
THE WARM FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...WHILE S OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
90S BENEATH AMPLE SUNSHINE. AS A RESULT...A RATHER STRONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE. SFC-BASED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ACROSS WRN
AR...WITH NELY STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND
TO THE N/E OF THE FRONT...WITH A 0-1 KM SRH MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER
SRN MO. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE A NARROW ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLATED
TO WARRANT A WW.
..ROGERS.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON   35369252 35629334 35809354 36179353 36239311 36149263
35729144 35489130 35149164 35369252

SPC Tornado Watch 649 Status Reports

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 04:42:05 GMT

WW 0649 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 649
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..09/09/10
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 649 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
ARC019-029-039-045-051-053-059-083-097-105-109-113-115-119-125-
127-149-090540-
AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK                CONWAY              DALLAS              
FAULKNER             GARLAND             GRANT               
HOT SPRING           LOGAN               MONTGOMERY          
PERRY                PIKE                POLK                
POPE                 PULASKI             SALINE              
SCOTT                YELL                
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Tornado Watch 649

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 04:42:03 GMT

WW 649 TORNADO AR 090305Z - 091000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELLVILLE
ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648...
DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF WRN AND CNTRL AR MAY SEE A CONTINUED
RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH EARLY THU AS REGION IS GLANCED BY
LOW LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NE-MOVING T.D "HERMINE."  VERY
MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATELY BACKED FLOW INVOF WEAK
WNW/ESE WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN AR WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL STORM ROTATION WITH ANY ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO FORM ON ERN
FRINGE OF SSWLY LLJ.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...CORFIDI

SPC MD 1804

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 02:53:05 GMT

MD 1804 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 648... FOR SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648...
VALID 090252Z - 090445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 648 CONTINUES.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE IS NOW
OVER SRN GRADY COUNTY OK. TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF INTEREST REMAIN. THE
FIRST IS OVER N TX AND INTO SRN OK...ALONG AN ORGANIZED CONFLUENCE
BAND FEEDING NWD INTO THE LOW. A FEW CELLS HAVE PRODUCED BURSTS OF
LIGHTNING...INDICATIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A MODIFIED 00Z FWD
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 75. FURTHER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
FARTHER E INTO AR...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS PERSIST ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE EARLIER BAND WHICH HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO WRN AR WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXIST. HOWEVER...SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S OVER S CNTRL AR...FROM CLARK/DALLAS COUNTIES SWD. DQU
PROFILER INDICATES WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AND TORNADOES...BUT OVERALL SHEAR DECREASES TO THE E.
THUS...EXPECT A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT ON ERN FRINGES OF WW 648.
..JEWELL.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON   31739640 31739764 33329739 34029709 34469704 34759710
34919734 35129718 35339611 35469487 35399453 34309323
33689298 33459344 33429441 33049532 32949567 32689599
31739640

SPC Tornado Watch 648 Status Reports

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 22:44:11 GMT

WW 0648 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0648 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Tornado Watch 648

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 22:44:02 GMT

WW 648 TORNADO AR OK TX 082240Z - 090600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 540
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCALESTER
OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE AREAS WITHIN LARGER SCALE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF "HERMINE" APPEAR TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVE: (1) ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN ZONE
OF GREATEST LOW LVL THETA-E ALONG AND E OF I-35 IN N TX...(2) ALONG
BAND OF STORMS EMBEDDED IN WARM/MOISTURE-RICH AIR IN NE TX;
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORM LINE MOVING NWD FROM SHV AREA MAY COMPROMISE
PROBABILITIES FOR LOW LVL STORM ROTATION INITIALLY...BUT AREA WILL
HAVE BENEFIT OF LOW LVL JET SHIFTING NNE INTO SE OK LATER THIS
EVE...(3) AREA ALONG W-E WARM FRONT IN SW AR...WHERE DEEP SHEAR IS
WEAKER BUT ENHANCED LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS...AND (4) AREA
OF COMPARATIVELY LOWER THETA-E AIR NEAR LOW LVL MAIN CIRCULATION
CENTER IN NW TX/SW OK; ANY THREAT THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THIS REGION
SHOULD TO SHIFT ENE FROM TOWARD ADA LATER THIS EVE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.
...CORFIDI

SPC MD 1800

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 07:04:06 GMT

MD 1800 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
VALID 080703Z - 081000Z
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING FROM NEAR SAN-ANTONIO TO NEAR AUSTIN TO EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THIS
CORRIDOR.
AS OF 06Z THE CENTER OF TD HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL TX JUST
WEST OF BROWNWOOD AND IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE IN A SLOW NWD
DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TURNING MORE NNEWD. A CORRIDOR OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS FROM NEAR THE
SAN-ANTONIO AREA NWD TO NEAR STEPHENVILLE. RECENT TRENDS IN IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUD TOP COOLING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTH AND SERN TX WITH
UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PERSISTENT ZONE OF CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE CENTER AND PW VALUES
NEAR 2.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN
SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS TRAIN
NWD WITHIN THE BAND.
THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND OR WITH ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MOVING NWD
EAST OF THE LINE WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST.
..DIAL.. 09/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON   30169837 31329798 32299831 32579777 32359718 31279691
29899748 29019871 29309913 30169837

SPC MD 1799

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 00:00:04 GMT

MD 1799 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NW TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NW TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
VALID 072337Z - 080230Z
BROAD PLUMES OF HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING INNER-CORE REGION AND INNER
BANDS OF HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NNWWD THEN NWD
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING...IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF CYCLONE
CENTER.  THIS AREA OF MOSTLY WARM-CLOUD RAIN ALSO MAY
EXPAND/INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK.  RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR ARE
PROBABLE.  LOCAL/BRIEF RATES NEAR 4 INCHES/HOUR CAN OCCUR IN MOST
INTENSE/EMBEDDED WARM-CLOUD CORES AND IN ANY TSTMS.
STRONGLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NNWWD PER NHC PROGS...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF INNER-REGION CONVECTION REMAINING CONCENTRATED
OVER NERN SEMICIRCLE...NW-NE-SE OF CENTER.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF
VERY HIGH PW AIR -- 2.25-2.5 INCHES BASED ON GPS DATA -- WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL FOCI ALONG BANDS NOW
CROSSING I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TX.  TRAINING OF ECHOES ALSO IS
LIKELY IN BANDS THAT WILL EXACERBATE HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOCALLY. 
SLGT NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO WILL
HELP TO FOCUS LLJ AROUND ERN/NRN PORTION OF INNER CYCLONE
ENVELOPE...WHILE STILL KEEPING EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED IN
EXTREMELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOR TORNADO THREAT REF SPC WW 647 VALID UNTIL 01Z AND MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1798.  REF HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR OVERVIEW
OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH 09/00Z.  REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR
FCST TRACK/INTENSITY OF HERMINE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON   30749902 30959930 31389946 32309946 33469940 33499807
31959741 31149745 30179757 30899796 30699828 30439855
30749902

SPC MD 1798

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 23:01:05 GMT

MD 1798 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 647... FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN/SERN TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN/SERN TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 647...
VALID 072300Z - 080100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 647 CONTINUES.
REMAINS OF TS HERMINE CONTINUE TO MOVE NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX HILL
COUNTRY REGION.  PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW...HOWEVER WE CURRENTLY ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY
AGAINST ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE ATTM BASED ON COMBINATION OF
MRGL/TRANSIENT NATURE OF SUPERCELLS ALREADY OBSERVED DURING
OPTIMAL-INSTABILITY PERIOD...AND SLOW DECLINE IN BUOYANCY EXPECTED
AFTER DARK.  SLGT TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW MAY BE PERFORMED LOCALLY
IF NEEDED ALSO...AS CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT.
MEANWHILE...WW MAY BE CLEARED OVER SRN PORTIONS...IN SE TX...BEFORE
SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.  THIS AREA IS WHERE
1. DRY SLOT ALOFT...EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...AND RELATED SUBSIDENCE
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION...AND
2. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS PEAKED AND WILL UNDERGO GEN WEAKENING TREND
FROM NOW ON AS HERMINE SLOWLY WEAKENS...WITH ITS CENTER MOVING AWAY
FROM THIS AREA.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TWO PRIMARY THERMAL AXES THAT...AMIDST SFC
DEW POINTS 70S F...SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ROOTED IN BOUNDARY
LAYER.  ONE EXTENDS FROM VCT AREA NWD THEN NNWWD TOWARD ACT...AROUND
ERN/NERN SIDE OF INNER CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND.  THE OTHER IS
EVIDENT FROM NWRN LA...WELL-REMOVED FROM STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...WWD TOWARD DFW METROPLEX WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE STRENGTHENING
WITH TIME AS CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO I-20.
AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS HAS BEEN
EXPANDING RADIALLY WITHIN AZIMUTHAL SECTOR LOCATED GENERALLY
NNW-NE-SE OF CENTER...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN AND
WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE CONSTRICTED DUE TO MUCH SMALLER CORRIDORS OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY NEAR THOSE THERMAL AXES.  ACCORDINGLY...UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z...MAIN POCKETS OF MOST PROBABLE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL
BE ALONG NERN FRINGE OF FAVORABLE WINDS BETWEEN METROPLEX AND RED
RIVER...AND WITH INNER-BAND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TX MOVING INTO
DESTABILIZED AIR MASS TO ITS N.  THEREAFTER...THERMAL AXES WILL
BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED DUE TO SFC DIABATIC COOLING...AND MLCAPE
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY.
..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON   28439642 28629775 30169768 31239803 32589861 33739756
33749580 32679449 29679383 29589429 28889535 28439642

SPC Tornado Watch 647 Status Reports

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 17:15:11 GMT

WW 0647 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0647 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Tornado Watch 647

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 17:15:02 GMT

WW 647 TORNADO TX CW 071715Z - 080100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE I-45 CORRIDOR IN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CORSICANA TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANGLETON TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 646. WATCH NUMBER 646 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1215 PM CDT. 
DISCUSSION...RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD/NEWD IN THE
OUTER NERN/ERN PARTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...WHICH CONTINUES TO
MOVE NNWWD NEAR SAT.  THE BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR FROM
HOU TO JUST S OF DAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS.  A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.
...THOMPSON

SPC MD 1796

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 16:42:06 GMT

MD 1796 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 646... FOR MIDDLE TX COAST...ECNTRL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST...ECNTRL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...
VALID 071641Z - 071815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 646 CONTINUES.
THE TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
IN ECNTRL TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WW 646 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. A NEW TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ECNTRL TX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO WITH A DISTINCT RAINBAND EAST OF THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM
PORT OCONNER ON THE TX COAST NNWWD TO NEAR WACO. THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ESTIMATING 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT RANGE ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 2.50 TO 2.75 INCH RANGE. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX
SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THE TORNADO THREAT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN VICTORIA AND HOUSTON.
..BROYLES.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON   27189759 27909813 29179728 29709581 29129529 28459579
27389639 27189759

SPC Tornado Watch 646 Status Reports

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 09:46:11 GMT

WW 0646 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0646 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Tornado Watch 646

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 09:46:02 GMT

WW 646 TORNADO TX CW 070940Z - 071800Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 440 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ANGLETON TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 645. WATCH NUMBER 645 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
440 AM CDT. 
DISCUSSION...PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NNWWD TODAY WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND VERY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BEING MAINTAINED WITHIN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CYCLONE /RELATIVE TO ITS MOTION/.  PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE
PRIMARY SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN INVOF THE COASTAL AREAS
WHERE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY WARM/MOIST TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING
LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13035.
...MEAD

SPC MD 1795

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 08:39:08 GMT

MD 1795 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 645... FOR SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645...
VALID 070838Z - 071015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 645 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE
10Z VALID THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FARTHER NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SERN TX.
AS OF 08Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS OVER S TX NORTH
OF BROWNSVILLE AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL
NWD DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC FOR
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE TX COAST SEWD
INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH WWD EXTENT
ONSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST ACTIVE WITHIN A BAND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND PALACIOS EXTENDING INTO THE
WRN GULF. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM
HELICITY FROM 200-400 M2/S2. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN TIME
OF DAY WITH LACK OF INSOLATION LIMITING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
LOWEST 2 KM. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS ROTATING OFFSHORE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MORE INLAND WHERE CAPE IS MORE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS MAY
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIABATIC WARMING INCREASES. THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN TX AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES NWD.
..DIAL.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON   27189759 27909813 29179728 29709581 29129529 28459579
27389639 27189759

SPC MD 1794

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 04:51:06 GMT

MD 1794 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 645... FOR PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645...
VALID 070450Z - 070645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES.
TS HERMINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NNWWD PER LATEST
NHC FCST...THROUGH REMAINDER WW DURATION.  IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION
OF HERMINES CENTER...EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF MOST
FAVORABLE NNW-NE-SE SECTOR OF CIRCULATION ENVELOPE INLAND.
SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM OFFSHORE PADRE
ISLAND...MOVING NWWD TOWARD COAST...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED
WEAK-MDT AND EPISODIC CYCLONIC SHEAR.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO LIE
ALONG NERN EDGE OF AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BASED ON
FCST WIND FIELDS...VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS.  COMPACT AREA OF
0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-350 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER LOWER TX COAST AND
INLAND N OF CENTER...FOR CELLS MOVING NWWD.  VWP TRENDS ALSO SHOW
THAT HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEGUN TO ENLARGE AT CRP...A TREND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE AS CENTER MOVES ACROSS LOWER VALLEY REGION.  AS CENTER OF
HERMINE PASSES...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AT LOCATIONS TO
ITS S THROUGH SW...GIVEN COMBINATION OF LESS-FAVORABLE
SHEAR...RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...AND RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION.
REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST ON HERMINE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON   25959716 25929736 25849742 26019772 26059818 26249854
26789839 27259851 27309823 28549834 28719813 28639780
29109700 28369636 28069678 27619719 27169738 26579726
25959716

SPC MD 1793

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 03:14:05 GMT

MD 1793 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS DEEP S TX.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
VALID 070313Z - 070615Z
WARM-CLOUD RAIN RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR...AND LOCALLY/BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE IN INNER REGION OF TS HERMINE
AS CENTER FOLLOWS NNWLY TRACK TOWARD LOWER VALLEY REGION DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PER NHC WIND
FCSTS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL-FOCUSED INTO
CENTRAL PORTION OF CIRCULATION.  THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RING OF
HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS NWRN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE RICHEST LAYER OF MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED WITH PW NEAR 2.5 INCHES...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM EFFECTS
OF ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM FROM MEX PLATEAU.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NNWWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CAMERON/HIDALGO/WILLACY/KENEDY/BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z. 
INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED INNER SPIRAL
BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY AND SRN KENEDY
COUNTY SEWD OVER GULF...AND ALSO PRODUCING BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN.
REF HPC EXCESSIVE RAIN DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON OVERALL PRECIP
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 08/00Z.  REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR
LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST INFO ON HERMINE.  REF WW 645 AND
SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON   26519845 27089863 27349873 27439828 27279775 26999738
26629727 26239718 25979713 25949723 25929734 25799738
25909752 26039765 26049776 26079806 26079821 26519845

SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:23:03 GMT

WW 0645 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 645
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..09/07/10
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-
489-070340-
TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARANSAS              BEE                 BROOKS              
CALHOUN              CAMERON             GOLIAD              
HIDALGO              JIM WELLS           KENEDY              
KLEBERG              LIVE OAK            NUECES              
REFUGIO              SAN PATRICIO        VICTORIA            
WILLACY              
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070340-
CW 
.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO 
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX 
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX

SPC Tornado Watch 645

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 02:23:02 GMT

WW 645 TORNADO TX CW 070100Z - 071000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 644...
DISCUSSION...PER LATEST NHC FCST...TS HERMINE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
SOON AFTER WW ISSUANCE AND MOVE NNWWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION OVER DEEP S TX.  ASSOCIATED RISK FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD BE WITHIN SMALL SECTOR NNW-NE-SE OF
CENTER OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT SYSTEM...WHERE AT LEAST MRGL
BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE PRESENT AS
EVIDENT IN 00Z BRO RAOB AND VWP.  THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT NNWWD AND
NWD UP COASTLINE IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF CENTER OF HERMINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13035.
...EDWARDS/HART

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 00:51:13 GMT

WW 0644 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0644 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644

Tue, 07 Sep 2010 00:51:05 GMT

WW 644 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 070050Z - 070600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES EAST OF WATERLOO
IOWA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING OVER EAST-CENTRAL IA.  THESE STORMS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY.  STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...HART

SPC MD 1791

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 22:02:06 GMT

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 062201Z - 062300Z
THREAT FOR TORNADOES PRODUCED BY TS HERMINE IS MRGL NOW BUT FCST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM S-N ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
TIME SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL VWP HODOGRAPHS AT BRO SHOW STEADY TENDENCY
FOR ENLARGEMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH NOW IN 100-200 J/KG RANGE
DEPENDING ON INPUT CELL MOTION USED.  THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL CENTER GETS CLOSER TO ANY GIVEN
POINT...WHEREUPON INCREASING TREND IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
SHOULD BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF.  MEANWHILE SIMILAR TREND IN HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER N TOWARD TX COASTAL BEND...BUT DELAYED BY
SEVERAL HOURS IN STEP WITH RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO HERMINE.  MOST
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR OVER
MIDDLE-OUTER SECTOR FROM NNW-SE OF CENTER.  MLCAPE CURRENTLY IN
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AWAY FROM THICK CLOUDS/HEAVY PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING INLAND...HOWEVER
WEAK CINH AND VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE SHOULD KEEP EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS SFC-BASED EXCEPT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LARGE PRECIP
CORES.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SMALL AREA COVERED BY BEST
OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL INSTABILITY.  GIVEN NHC FCST
TRACK OF CENTER AND STRENGTH/RADII OF WIND FIELDS...FAVORABLE NNW-SE
SECTOR WILL SPREAD NNWWD/INLAND WITH SOME EXPANSION ALSO POSSIBLE IN
EVENT OF ANY INTENSIFICATION.  RADAR SRM TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE
BRIEF/SPORADIC AND MAINLY WEAK SHEAR COUPLETS WITH CELLS OFFSHORE
AND OVER MEX...BUT WITHOUT SUSTAINED/WELL-ORGANIZED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES UP TO THIS POINT.  STG-SVR TSTM GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
FROM MOST INTENSE OUTER CELLS AND BANDS...OUTSIDE RADIUS OF DAMAGING
AMBIENT/GRADIENT WINDS.
REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST GUIDANCE ON TS
HERMINE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON   27099845 27799882 28679900 28859767 28669577 28289648
27889700 27439728 27039737 26639729 26399720 25969713
25949725 25939731 25799735 25909757 26009766 26099799
26359812 27099845

SPC MD 1788

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:19:05 GMT

MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR WRN N TX...SWRN OK INTO E CNTRL OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX...SWRN OK INTO E CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...
VALID 030218Z - 030345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS STORMS TRACK SEWD THIS
EVENING. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SFC OBSERVATIONS THE LAST HOUR HAVE LARGELY SHOWED A DECREASE IN
WIND GUSTS FROM WRN N TX INTO SWRN OK TO E CNTRL OK...ALTHOUGH
STORMS COULD STILL REMAIN SEVERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD...AIR MASS WILL BECOME LESS UNSTABLE AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED...EFFECTIVELY ENDING DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY BE OVER BY THE WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON   34710037 34220086 33610098 33120067 32960035 33079930
33819731 35279508 35719445 36279430 36539454 36679510
34710037

SPC MD 1786

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:13:05 GMT

MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...
VALID 030012Z - 030215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643
CONTINUES.
STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN AND NEAR WW 643...NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM SERN WI
SWWD TO SWRN MO.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
INDICATED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND CONFIRMED BY AN INITIAL LOOK AT
THE INCOMING EVENING RAOBS.
WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/LOCALLY-SEVERE
STORMS...EXPECT THREATS FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL TO
CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE BANDS OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WW.
..GOSS.. 09/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...
EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON   36399416 36999461 38189457 41009023 41198819 41038756
38848765 36629195 36399416

SPC MD 1785

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:04 GMT

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR WRN N TX...SWRN TO N CNTRL OK...SERN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX...SWRN TO N CNTRL OK...SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...
VALID 022341Z - 030115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 642 AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SWRN
MO NEAR JLN TO GOK IN CNTRL OK TO JUST NW OF CDS IN WRN N TX. STORMS
ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN SERN KS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED AND HAVE
BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. INTO SWRN MO/NERN OK STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT.
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF NERN OK.
FARTHER SW ACROSS CNTRL OK...A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE OKC
METRO AREA HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT MAY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET GIVEN LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS THEY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COUNTIES MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH ACROSS S CNTRL OK.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON   33980048 37329475 36769472 35889455 35799452 34419642
32170040 32650043 32920045 33980048

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643 Status Reports

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 21:48:11 GMT

WW 0643 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0643 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 21:48:03 GMT

WW 643 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 022145Z - 030500Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MONETT MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 642...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO LOWER MO AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEYS.  PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS WARM WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL PART SOF
MO AND IL/ AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY
TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...WEISS

SPC MD 1783

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:47:06 GMT

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR N AND CNTRL IL...ECNTRL/CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N AND CNTRL IL...ECNTRL/CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 022046Z - 022215Z
...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ALONG WRN/NRN EDGES OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CNTRL IL AND
CNTRL MO AT MID-AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF MID-UPR 80S
TEMPERATURES...LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND NEAR 7 DEG
6.5 C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES TO
2000 J/KG.  
AS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE E...ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND GIVEN
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NRN IL SWWD INTO CNTRL MO. 
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW DOMINATED STRUCTURES WILL
PROBABLY RESULT IN PRIMARILY MULTICELL STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..RACY.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...
LAT...LON   38749216 40589096 41668968 41558867 40798838 39948879
38768984 38139073 37849169 38049226 38519233 38749216

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642 Status Reports

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:32:11 GMT

WW 0642 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0642 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:32:03 GMT

WW 642 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 022030Z - 030300Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LARGE PART OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. 
WITH DCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES SWD THRU THE WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30020.
...HALES

SPC MD 1781

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:18:06 GMT

MD 1781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR E KS...SW MO...N AND CNTRL OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...E KS...SW MO...N AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
VALID 021917Z - 022115Z
...INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD INTO ERN/SRN KS AT 19Z AND WILL
BEGIN TO OVERTAKE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS SITUATED FROM WELL SE OF
KANSAS CITY TO WCNTRL OK AFTER 21Z.  ALTHOUGH POST-FRONTAL AND
ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR KSLN TO KTOP THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARY NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE FROM
SW MO INTO NCNTRL/WCNTRL OK 21-00Z.
AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO HEAT WITH INHIBITION SLOWLY WEAKENING IN A
NE TO SW FASHION FROM SWRN MO INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS AT MID-AFTERNOON. 
MLCAPES WERE RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AS LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS CONTINUE BENEATH 7-7.5 C PER KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AMIDST
STRENGTHENING MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IN VICINITY THE COLD
FRONT...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM SWRN MO SWWD TO SERN
KS...NCNTRL/WCNTRL OK 21-00Z.
PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AS THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WELL N OF THE INITIATION ZONE.  INITIAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT
EXPECTATION IS FOR MATURING STORMS TO BECOME QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY
COOL OUTFLOW/FRONT WITH HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..RACY.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON   37209753 37729701 38229697 38639763 38909789 39119779
39219668 39169597 38929433 38769334 38459291 38029280
37769293 36969436 35849729 35129955 35909984 36459874
37209753

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641 Status Reports

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 08:56:04 GMT

WW 0641 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BUB TO
20 SSE YKN TO 35 W FSD TO 15 ENE BKX.
..BROYLES..09/02/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-133-141-143-149-167-193-021040-
IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA          CHEROKEE            CLAY                
DICKINSON            IDA                 LYON                
MONONA               OBRIEN             OSCEOLA             
PLYMOUTH             SIOUX               WOODBURY            
MNC033-063-081-083-101-105-117-133-021040-
MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTONWOOD           JACKSON             LINCOLN             
LYON                 MURRAY              NOBLES              
PIPESTONE            ROCK                
NEC011-021-039-043-051-119-167-173-179-021040-
NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

SPC MD 1780

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 08:16:06 GMT

MD 1780 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641... FOR SW MN...SE SD...NE NEB AND NW IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN...SE SD...NE NEB AND NW IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641...
VALID 020815Z - 020945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641
CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PART OF WW 641
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO THE OMAHA AREA AND ACROSS PARTS OF NW IA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. FURTHER
NORTH...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST IN SW MN WHERE TRAINING CELLS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD.
TWO CONVECTIVE LINES ARE ONGOING ACROSS WW 641. THE SRN MOST LINE
EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD SWWD ABOUT 120 STATUTE
MILES INTO ECNTRL NEB. THIS LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL JET. THE JET IS HELPING TO CREATE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPORT THE LINE EWD INTO NW IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS EXISTS TO THE NORTH EXTENDING FROM
MINNEAPOLIS SWWD TO NORTH OF SIOUX FALLS SD. THE SRN END OF THE LINE
IS LOCATED ALONG A WARM FRONT IN SW MN AND IS VERY NEAR THE CENTER
OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED
IN NATURE BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG WARM ADVECTION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN SW MN ARE ESTIMATED AT 1.5 INCHES WHICH ALONG A
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST SHOULD PROMOTE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE SLOWER MOVING TRAINING CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 09/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON   41869530 41449650 41139830 41239956 41569996 42469904
43369787 44469710 45049601 45009492 44589405 43569428
43009437 42369477 41869530

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:15:10 GMT

WW 641 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 020615Z - 021400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
NORFOLK NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 640...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING IN MOIST AXIS
DOWNSTREAM FROM ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS.  COMBINATION OF MID LVL COOLING...FAIRLY
RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND 40+ KT WLY MID LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640 Status Reports

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 02:27:06 GMT

WW 0640 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW ABR TO
20 NE ABR.
..GOSS..09/02/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 640 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
SDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-035-037-039-043-
051-053-057-059-061-067-073-077-079-083-087-091-097-099-101-109-
111-115-125-135-020340-
SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA               BEADLE              BON HOMME           
BROOKINGS            BROWN               BRULE               
BUFFALO              CHARLES MIX         CLARK               
CLAY                 CODINGTON           DAVISON             
DAY                  DEUEL               DOUGLAS             
GRANT                GREGORY             HAMLIN              
HAND                 HANSON              HUTCHINSON          
JERAULD              KINGSBURY           LAKE                
LINCOLN              MCCOOK              MARSHALL            
MINER                MINNEHAHA           MOODY               
ROBERTS              SANBORN             SPINK               
TURNER               YANKTON             
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC MD 1777

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:11 GMT

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB/WRN IA/N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA/N CENTRAL AND NERN KS/NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 012319Z - 020115Z
SLOWLY INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION COULD
EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY ACROSS
SERN NEB AND VICINITY...NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF A NWWD-MOVING
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AS
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING QG FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
INCREASE GIVEN EXISTING MODERATE INSTABILITY.
MODERATE/VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR INITIATING STORMS WITHIN
THE WLY MEAN FLOW FIELD TO SHIFT EWD ATOP A SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY
STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIMARY THREAT MAY BE LIMITED TO
MARGINAL HAIL.
..GOSS.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON   39329855 39999889 40519922 40799898 41369794 42109712
42429575 41809437 40799438 39549587 39329855

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:05 GMT

WW 640 SEVERE TSTM SD 012340Z - 020700Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL
SOUTH DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD.  INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NWD RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZING THIS EVENING. 
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING AND INCREASING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING FAVORABLE SHEAR TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.  DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...WEISS

SPC MD 1772

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 02:47:05 GMT

MD 1772 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639... FOR NERN KS...NRN MO THROUGH ERN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NRN MO THROUGH ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639...
VALID 010246Z - 010345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...639...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD
THE ERN BORDERS OF WW 638 AND 639. ANOTHER WW EAST OF CURRENT
WATCHES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN.
LINE OF STORMS FROM SWRN WI THROUGH E-CNTRL IA...NWRN MO AND NERN KS
CONTINUES SEWD AT AROUND 20-25 KT. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER. WHILE
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...COVERAGE OF ANY FUTURE SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
SPARSE TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE.
..DIAL.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON   41189300 42219229 42789181 43269068 42749062 41099194
39539319 38519612 38259768 38759813 39859414 41189300

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638 Status Reports

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:36:04 GMT

WW 0638 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S DNS TO
30 S RST.
..DIAL..09/01/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
IAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-033-037-039-049-
053-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-099-117-121-125-127-
129-131-137-145-153-155-157-159-165-169-171-173-175-181-187-191-
197-010140-
IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR                ADAMS               AUDUBON             
BENTON               BLACK HAWK          BOONE               
BREMER               BUCHANAN            BUTLER              
CARROLL              CASS                CERRO GORDO         
CHICKASAW            CLARKE              DALLAS              
DECATUR              FAYETTE             FLOYD               
FRANKLIN             FREMONT             GREENE              
GRUNDY               GUTHRIE             HAMILTON            
HARDIN               HOWARD              JASPER              
LUCAS                MADISON             MARION              
MARSHALL             MILLS               MITCHELL            
MONTGOMERY           PAGE                POLK                
POTTAWATTAMIE        POWESHIEK           RINGGOLD            
SHELBY               STORY               TAMA                
TAYLOR               UNION               WARREN              
WEBSTER              WINNESHIEK          WRIGHT

SPC MD 1770

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:30:05 GMT

MD 1770 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639... FOR NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SERN NEB...FAR SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...639...
VALID 010029Z - 010130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
638...639...CONTINUES.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD INCREASE
FURTHER ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO NWRN MO DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS SUCH...AREA DOWNSTREAM OF WW 638 WILL BE MONITORED FOR WFO
AREAL EXTENSION OR AN ADDITIONAL WW. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF
TSTMS INVOF NEB/IA/MO/KS BORDER.
AS OF 0025Z...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE SWRN
IA/NWRN MO BORDER SWWD INTO N-CNTRL KS. PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SHOULD EXIST IN THE NEAR-TERM ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN KS. HERE...OUTFLOW
FROM WEAKENING TSTMS OVER SERN KS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH ONGOING
TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL KS. THIS INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM CLUSTERS AND MAY LEAD
TO FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH. FARTHER NE...A W/E-ORIENTATION OF TSTM
CLUSTERS SHOULD REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER-DURATION HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS AMIDST PW VALUES NEAR 2
IN /PER 00Z TOP RAOB/.
..GRAMS.. 09/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON   38889921 39379782 40219622 40519601 40859449 40969366
40819323 40519319 39919361 39589491 38999648 38579839
38569871 38889921

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 639 Status Reports

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:20:12 GMT

WW 0639 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0639 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 639

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:20:03 GMT

WW 639 SEVERE TSTM KS 312220Z - 010600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 520
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 638...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN
A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG.  REGION RESIDES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO LARGE-SCALE N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WITH GENERALLY 30-45 KT OF DEEP WSWLY SHEAR.  AS SUCH...SETUP
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...MEAD

SPC MD 1768

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:01:05 GMT

MD 1768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NRN/CNTRL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
VALID 312159Z - 312300Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT ALONG SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
DRAPED THROUGH NRN/CNTRL KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH
LEADING TO POTENTIAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z.
RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS INCREASING BENEATH
A CIRRUS CANOPY ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WICHITA TO REPUBLIC
COUNTY AS OF 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF
2500 TO 4000 J/KG/. LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH/WRF-NMM AND NSSL
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE
QLCS/S WILL OCCUR...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL COLD
POOL/FRONTAL INTERACTIONS UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFTS. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON   39709867 40069718 40189602 40049558 39809553 39339602
38839688 38329895 38060084 38690097 39709867

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:00:02 GMT

WW 638 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 312200Z - 010600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
IOWA
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 500
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF FALLS
CITY NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MASON CITY IOWA.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITHIN A MOIST AND
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000
J/KG.  APPROACH OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND 40-45 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE BACKGROUND ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD

SPC Tornado Watch 637 Status Reports

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 06:30:03 GMT

WW 0637 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 637
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE MHE
TO 25 W FSD TO 15 SSE BKX TO 20 ENE BKX TO 30 WNW RWF TO 45 ESE
VVV.
..BROYLES..08/31/10
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
IAC059-119-141-143-149-167-310740-
IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON            LYON                OBRIEN             
OSCEOLA              PLYMOUTH            SIOUX               
MNC013-015-023-033-063-067-079-081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-
117-127-129-133-141-143-145-165-171-310740-
MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH           BROWN               CHIPPEWA            
COTTONWOOD           JACKSON             KANDIYOHI           
LE SUEUR             LINCOLN             LYON                
MCLEOD               MARTIN              MEEKER              
MURRAY               NICOLLET            NOBLES              
PIPESTONE            REDWOOD             RENVILLE            
ROCK                 SHERBURNE           SIBLEY              
STEARNS              WATONWAN            WRIGHT

SPC Tornado Watch 637

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 06:30:02 GMT

WW 637 TORNADO IA MN SD 310445Z - 311200Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
FAR NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF YANKTON SOUTH
DAKOTA TO 85 MILES NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 636. WATCH NUMBER 636 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1145 PM CDT. 
DISCUSSION...FORCED BAND OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT AND A DOWNSTREAM
CORRIDOR OF MORE DISCRETE STORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT IN CONCERT WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH NERN SD.  ANOMALOUS INFLOW AIR MASS EXISTS
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY 70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-500 J/KG.  THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD

SPC Tornado Watch 636 Status Reports

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 02:37:03 GMT

WW 0636 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RWF TO
35 SSE VVV TO 30 NNE VVV.
..DIAL..08/31/10
ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...FSD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 636 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
MNC023-073-121-149-151-173-310340-
MN 
.    MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA             LAC QUI PARLE       POPE                
STEVENS              SWIFT               YELLOW MEDICINE     
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Tornado Watch 636

Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00:03 GMT

WW 636 TORNADO MN SD 302345Z - 310700Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL
SOUTH DAKOTA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...WW 635...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP
NNEWD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM/JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH CNTRL NEB.  AMBIENT INFLOW AIR
MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70 F
AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  AND WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN
LARGELY LINEAR...THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60 KT SLY LLJ AND RESULTANT
300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...MEAD

SPC Tornado Watch 635 Status Reports

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:55:11 GMT

WW 0635 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0635 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:26:03 GMT

WW 634 SEVERE TSTM MN NE SD 302025Z - 310300Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
SMALL PART OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MUCH 0F EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG MOISTURE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IN THE AXIS OF 40-50 KT LLJ.  GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT.  HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR MORE DISCRETE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE RISK OF SEVERE
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 19:05:02 GMT

WW 633 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 301905Z - 310100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 700
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORLAND WYOMING TO 80 MILES EAST OF GILLETTE
WYOMING.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WY ATTM.  WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF BIG HORN MTNS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON
HEATING PERIOD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632 Status Reports

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:35:04 GMT

WW 0632 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 632
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE SAD TO
30 NNW TUS TO 15 SSE PHX.
..DIAL..08/30/10
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
AZC007-009-011-021-300140-
AZ 
.    ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GILA                 GRAHAM              GREENLEE            
PINAL                
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC MD 1755

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 22:44:06 GMT

MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... FOR SERN AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...
VALID 292243Z - 300015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST.
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS OVER
SERN AZ SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND UPPER 50S MEAN
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION BUT DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ZONE OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF SRN THROUGH ERN AZ WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE
18Z RAOB DATA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SOURCE FOR DEEPER
MESOSCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENTRAINMENT. NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.
..DIAL.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON   31451102 32581164 33831144 34321061 34140962 33220912
31650909 31451102

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 632

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 19:50:03 GMT

WW 632 SEVERE TSTM AZ 291950Z - 300200Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SHOW LOW ARIZONA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA
ARIZONA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AS THE MDTLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED.  WITH 25-30 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.
...HALES

SPC MD 1753

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 19:14:05 GMT

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UT CO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...UT CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 291913Z - 292115Z
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND EXPECT PERSISTENT
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN 30-40KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD-BEARING/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
30KT SHOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BUT DEEPLY MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON   37390907 37511002 37821021 38630996 39270953 39810907
40480838 40550775 40030738 39230741 38650787 37730848
37390907

SPC MD 1751

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 18:42:05 GMT

MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 291841Z - 292015Z
THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON   34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631 Status Reports

Sat, 28 Aug 2010 20:56:03 GMT

WW 0631 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE U24
TO 20 SSE MLD TO 20 ESE PIH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
..CARBIN..08/28/10
ATTN...WFO...PIH...SLC...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
IDC005-007-011-019-029-041-043-065-081-282240-
ID 
.    IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK              BEAR LAKE           BINGHAM             
BONNEVILLE           CARIBOU             FRANKLIN            
FREMONT              MADISON             TETON               
UTC005-011-013-029-033-035-043-049-051-057-282240-
UT 
.    UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CACHE                DAVIS               DUCHESNE            
MORGAN               RICH                SALT LAKE           
SUMMIT               UTAH                WASATCH             
WEBER                
WYC013-023-029-035-039-041-282240-

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631

Sat, 28 Aug 2010 17:55:03 GMT

WW 631 SEVERE TSTM ID UT WY 281755Z - 290000Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 28 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
NORTHERN UTAH
MUCH OF WESTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
600 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CODY WYOMING TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DUGWAY UTAH.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WATCH AS
AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION.  WITH 40-50 KT OF SHEAR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1200 J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
ENHANCED BY THE EXISTING GRADIENT WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. 
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS
INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...HALES

SPC MD 1748

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 20:16:05 GMT

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 272014Z - 272245Z
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
STORMS HAVE ERUPTED WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHERE HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL
TROUGH ALSO EXISTED ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
-10 C OVER NERN NC TO AROUND -8 C OVER SC. WIND PROFILES WERE
GENERALLY WEAK AND BACKING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...BUT
HIGH LEVEL FLOW WAS SUBSTANTIAL. HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SWD MOVING CORES...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO 1.00 INCH DIAMETER. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE OVER
NC...WITH DECREASING HAIL SIZE EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
..JEWELL.. 08/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON   34277768 34717830 36137829 36447795 36537678 36187618
35137566 34507642 34277768

SPC MD 1747

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 19:32:05 GMT

MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL VA...FAR N CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 261931Z - 262100Z
STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS OF WRN VA...AND POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS
THEY ENTER PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA AND N CNTRL NC. THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
WEAK S/W TROUGH IS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
MID/UPR OH VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS FEATURE
IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN
VA...WITH ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN VA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE DURING THE
LAST FEW HRS AND ARE BEGINNING TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF CNTRL
VA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S F...WHICH IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8.5 C PER
KM BASED ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE A WARM NOSE RESIDES AT AROUND 600
MB...WHICH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO MAINTAIN SOME VIGOR AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD CNTRL VA AND
PERHAPS N CNTRL NC...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-30
KT SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORM TYPES WILL BE OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO SUB-SVR DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..GARNER.. 08/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON   36898079 38217908 38437786 37757741 36517793 35987882
36168046 36898079

SPC MD 1746

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 18:20:08 GMT

MD 1746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN GA AND SRN SC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 261819Z - 261945Z
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN GA AND SRN SC THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED NATURE OF
THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE SERN
STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN AL/SWRN GA...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE
GOM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 90S F S OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER SRN GA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F. FARTHER N OVER SRN
SC...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HR OR SO...AND IS FOCUSING RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SURFACE THETA-E VALUES AS WELL AS MLCAPE AOA
2500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...MULTICELLS AND PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE AIR MASS AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LARGE CAPE AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS
AND DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
..GARNER.. 08/26/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON   32398368 33168179 32998020 32178021 30478189 30658369
32398368

SPC MD 1743

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 17:57:06 GMT

MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 241756Z - 241930Z
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S-SWWD OUT OF ERN OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND THEN WWD INTO SWRN TX. WEAK
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE CNTRL TX PORTION OF
THE FRONT...WITH SEVERAL ZONES OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SEWD AND SWWD
FROM THE LOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F OVER ERN TX...WITH AN
AXIS OF 1.75-2.0 INCH PWAT VALUES /PER GPS DERIVED TPW GUIDANCE/
EXTENDING NEWD OUT OF THE GOM. MEANWHILE...HOT AIR MASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100-105 F/ AND STEEP 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES ARE EMANATING OUT OF SW TX INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...CLUSTERS OF
MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THEN MOVE SWD ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN DEEP LAYER
OF NLY FLOW /PER AREA VWP DATA/. STORMS OCCURRING WITHIN FAVORABLY
JUXTAPOSED HIGH PWAT AND HOT/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AIR MASS
WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IF SVR
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ENOUGH...THEN A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
..GARNER.. 08/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON   30269547 29629716 30019878 31509874 32539777 32909678
32169584 30269547

SPC MD 1742

Tue, 24 Aug 2010 16:26:06 GMT

MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA INTO NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 241625Z - 241800Z
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.  WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A MESOSCALE
COMPLEX WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST.
16Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CHS WWD TO MCN AND THEN MORE SWWD THROUGH CSG TO NEAR GZH.  12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EXHIBITED A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND MEAN MIXING
RATIOS OF 17-19+ G/KG.  AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000-3500 J/KG.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING SEWD AROUND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO HOURS.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCUSSION AREA WILL
RESIDE BENEATH A BELT OF ENHANCED NNWLY FLOW IN THE MID- TO
UPPER-TROPOSPHERE...RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  AS
SUCH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT MULTICELL OR MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.  SHOULD STORMS EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
INCREASE AND A WW WOULD HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.
..MEAD.. 08/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON   30308426 31088470 32108481 33158484 33548435 33358369
32778284 32448170 31498126 30328157 29978249 30308426

SPC MD 1741

Mon, 23 Aug 2010 20:49:05 GMT

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL/NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 232048Z - 232315Z
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT FORM ERN SD INTO NWRN KS
WITH 2-3 MB 2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER NEB AND SD BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS HAMPERED HEATING SOMEWHAT ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SLY SURFACE WINDS AND UPSTREAM HEATING
SHOULD HELP NUMEROUS STORMS TO ERUPT ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE.
DEEPER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SWD ACROSS NEB
AND INTO KS ERODING CIN. SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PROPAGATE
SEWD ON OUTFLOW WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 08/23/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON   38149900 37989975 38120031 38820083 39230045 40339976
41419903 41969792 41879708 41279678 40399733 38909827
38149900

SPC MD 1737

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 18:54:05 GMT

MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN
GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 221853Z - 222100Z
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BOOSTED
MLCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SERN STATES. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES IN WARM SECTOR FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS.
..DIAL.. 08/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON   32439091 32588872 32878553 32068440 30678521 30408800
30639103 32439091

SPC MD 1736

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 00:52:07 GMT

MD 1736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SRN/S-CNTRL AZ

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/S-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
VALID 220051Z - 220145Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SRN/S-CNTRL AZ. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PIMA/SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF S
CNTRL AZ. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW
VALUES /AROUND 1.8 INCH/ COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR
NWWD CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD POOL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE INTO PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES.
..ROGERS.. 08/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON   31601185 31871276 32231297 32761311 33041282 33181221
33341131 33011065 32341012 32021011 31721026 31471071
31331111 31601185

SPC MD 1735

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 17:55:06 GMT

MD 1735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
VALID 211754Z - 211930Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF TN...ERN AR...AND NRN MS/AL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...SOMEWHAT DIFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD OUT
OF IND INTO SRN MO AND ERN OK...WITH SUBTLE CONFLUENT ZONE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CNTRL AR...AND A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING S-SWWD OUT OF ERN KY INTO MIDDLE TN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE TN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW 90S F. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COMBINED
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL
AND PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HIGH PWAT AIR MASS...AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/DOWNBURSTS WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
..GARNER.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON   34858450 33938827 34259319 35229293 36448888 36758434
35948353 34858450

SPC MD 1734

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 03:20:06 GMT

MD 1734 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
VALID 210319Z - 210445Z
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL MO LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE AND SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
A SERIES OF SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS ONGOING IN WCNTRL MO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS SRN MO SUGGESTING THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MEASURED AT GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHICH ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S F SHOULD PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOWER MOVING
LINE-SEGMENTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SHOULD EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON   37979225 38119390 38339452 38839465 39149422 39039246
38989179 38929122 38749089 38359093 38079116 37979225

SPC MD 1732

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 00:47:05 GMT

MD 1732 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629... FOR ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 628...629...
VALID 210046Z - 210145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
628...629...CONTINUES.
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE WRN AND
CNTRL PART OF WW 628 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED UNTIL 03Z.
SEVERAL SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW 629 AND
THE WRN PART OF WW 628 ARE LOCATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. 
IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN MO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING IN WRN AND
CNTRL MO SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WET
DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
..BROYLES.. 08/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON   37999406 38039506 38729504 38689457 39069455 39289427
39499425 39519373 39619372 39599327 39709332 39699272
39619269 39579228 39959225 40289225 40309197 40249192
40229150 40209101 40309100 40279049 41199042 41158996
41278995 41248966 41108966 41128921 41658918 41628864
41108859 41138889 40688898 40588928 40328930 40298960
40078963 40108999 39879000 39899056 39849059 39829092
39759091 39769140 39639126 39459147 39169139 39139162
39079164 39079213 38659221 38749239 38419249 38529279
38689280 38709302 38529312 38499346 38209350 38189403
37999406

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628 Status Reports

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:41:06 GMT

WW 0628 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 628
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LWD
TO 15 ESE LWD TO 40 NNW IRK TO 20 S OTM TO 10 E OTM TO 20 NNE OTM.
..BROYLES..08/20/10
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 628 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
ILC001-007-009-011-015-017-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-
109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-
203-202340-
IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS                BOONE               BROWN               
BUREAU               CARROLL             CASS                
DEKALB               FULTON              HANCOCK             
HENDERSON            HENRY               JO DAVIESS          
KNOX                 LA SALLE            LEE                 
MCDONOUGH            MCHENRY             MARSHALL            
MASON                MERCER              OGLE                
PEORIA               PUTNAM              ROCK ISLAND         
SCHUYLER             STARK               STEPHENSON          
TAZEWELL             WARREN              WHITESIDE           
WINNEBAGO            WOODFORD            
IAC031-045-057-087-097-101-103-107-111-115-139-163-177-183-
202340-
IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629 Status Reports

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:41:04 GMT

WW 0629 Status Reports

STATUS REPORT ON WW 629
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..08/20/10
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...ICT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629 
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 
KSC003-005-017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-
113-115-127-139-143-149-161-169-177-197-209-202340-
KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON             ATCHISON            CHASE               
CLAY                 CLOUD               COFFEY              
DICKINSON            DOUGLAS             FRANKLIN            
GEARY                JACKSON             JEFFERSON           
JOHNSON              LEAVENWORTH         LYON                
MCPHERSON            MARION              MORRIS              
OSAGE                OTTAWA              POTTAWATOMIE        
RILEY                SALINE              SHAWNEE             
WABAUNSEE            WYANDOTTE           
MOC021-047-049-165-202340-
MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUCHANAN             CLAY                CLINTON             
PLATTE

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:41:03 GMT

WW 629 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 202130Z - 210300Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF
OLATHE KANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...WW 628...
DISCUSSION...E/W BOUNDARY JUST S OF I70 IN KS/NWRN MO WILL BE FOCUS
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS IS NOW
QUITE UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED TO S OF BOUNDARY.  WITH APPROACH OF
MID LEVEL IMPULSE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS ENHANCING BOTH THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT. 
STORMS WILL MOVE EWD GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY PRIOR TO
DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOLS  WHICH WILL THEN MOVE ACTIVITY SEWD THIS
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HALES

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630 Status Reports

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:40:12 GMT

WW 0630 Status Reports

STATUS FOR WATCH 0630 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 22:40:04 GMT

WW 630 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 202240Z - 210400Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 630
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 540 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TRAVERSE CITY MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...WW 628...WW 629...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS LM WILL
MAINTAIN A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS AIR MASS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HALES