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Home of Storm Chaser Videographer Jeff Gammons.

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Last news: October 28, 2008 02:42:10

Discussions, thoughts, and comments from the ABC 33/40 team of meteorologists. Updated often daily, 7 days a week!

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Last news: 2 hours 9 minutes ago

Pretty impressive couplet on radar near Bono, Arkansas right now; that is headed toward Paragould, Arkansas…

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS…
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS…
SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS…

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BONO…MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BONO…
BROOKLAND…CROWLEYS RIDGE STATE PARK AND LAKE FRIERSON STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

Thanks to WeatherBrains associated Kevin Selle for these images… he writes…

“Damage pics from a warehouse area on the northwest side of Dallas. Weather Service had just come by and said EF-2. Also, Julie Martin from the Weather Channel doing live shots, and a screen grab from the flooding video I shot yesterday along with a shot of the same location today.”

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. RIGHT NOW: All is quiet across the Alabama countryside this afternoon. Very few showers are on radar, and temperatures are hanging around 90 in most [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. HOT AND HUMID: The weather will continue to feel a little more like August today and tomorrow with highs in the low 90s with a [...] - [Read more]

These images were captured within the last few minutes from WFAA-TV, Channel 8, in Dallas. You can watch their coverage live here.

Some showers and thunderstorms have developed over north-central AL this afternoon.  The heaviest one was near Trussville and Center Point at 355 pm. 

Notice also the spreading circles of blue/green radar returns.  These are the cool-air outflow boundaries produced by collapsing storms.  Just like water poured on a table spreads out because it’s more dense than air, cool air spreads out because it is more dense than warm air.  The radar returns are clouds, and sometimes bugs and dust, being lifted at the edge of the outflow.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. RIGHT NOW: Sure looks and feels like a summer afternoon across Alabama with hot, muggy conditions and a few widely scattered showers. Radar at 3:15 [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to our WeatherBrains associated Kevin Selle in Dallas/Fort Worth for passing this along… he writes

“Pretty big rain around north Texas. The house in the first few shots is on Rush Creek. Usually only about 10-15 feet across. The creek runs to the right of the building when not flooded. ”

The flooding, of course, is due to the remnant low that was formerly Tropical Storm Hermine…

By early this afternoon, a few showers had developed across North and Central Alabama. The showers were generally small and not very heavy.

Thy will increase some as the afternoon goes on and they will be moving generally west to east.

By 1 o’clock this afternoon, the temperature had reached 93 in both Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

Hope you will excuse me but I woke up this morning at 5 in a severe writing mood. Mainly because my little 9-pound pal gave me a free hour or so before commanding me to take her on a walk. This is not a Weather By The Numbers but it is somewhat the same. Some of this may be of little or no interest so that is why I am using several different titles.

HERMINE
* No longer a tropical storm…just an ordinary low, but loaded with tropical moisture, centered over North Texas and moving north
* At least 25 Texas counties now under a Flash Flood Warning in a wide string from near the coast north to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. A Flash Flood Watch for numerous additional counties affecting a lot of Oklahoma and into parts of Kansas.
* A North Fort Worth intersection was under one foot of water this morning.

TEXAS RAIN AMOUNTS BECAUSE OF HERMINE
13.20 Georgetown
6.20 San Antonio
5.86 Waco
1.29 Wichita Falls
3.48 Austin
1.34 Baton (well, not in Texas. Home of the LSU Tigers)
2.70 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW Airport)
2.55 Houston
6.04 Fort Worth/Meacham Airport

USA EXTREMES
114 yesterday in Death Valley
34 this AM in Yellowstone National Park (or “Jellystone” for you Yogi Bear fans)

STRETCHING THE OLD THERMOMETER TO THE LIMIT
117 this hour in Basrah, Iraq. Should be 110 or higher through Sunday
108 below zero this hour, Vostok, Antarctica (That is a 225-degree difference!)
153 below zero is their projected wind chill Friday night. That would make me reach for an overcoat except this hot-natured guy has never owned one.

OCTOBER IS GOOD NEWS FOR BIRMINGHAM
* Because we have never had 100-degree weather in October with records dating back to 1885, a little before James Spann was born.
* The average high temperature for October is 74.9, ranging from 80 at the beginning, lowering to 70 at the end of the month. Cheers!

SEPTEMBER CAN BE MEAN
* 98 yesterday in Muscle Shoals, 97 in Montgomery and 95 in Birmingham, Pinson, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville are exampes.
* In September, 1925, record highs for Birmingham on nine different days, all 100 or hotter including 105 or 106 on four days.
* Just two years later, in 1927, another major heat wave with Birmingham having 100 or higher on seven days.
* The latest 100 on record for Birmingham is September 22, 1925 with an even 100.
* Little or no air conditioning in any of those years.

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
* Pakistan unheard of flooding.
* A part of that country equal to the size of Florida under water!
* Six million people homeless
* More than 17 million people affected
* 17 million acres of farm land under water

WTNT31 KNHC 081459 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010 …IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…13.7N 23.5W ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. HIGHS IN THE 90s: The fact that the weather is hot is not all that unusual for early September, I often point out the first [...] - [Read more]

WeatherBrains Episode 241 is now online (September 7, 2010). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you! Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a native of Topeka, KS, but now lives in Mission KS, just outside Kansas City. He is a writer with a degree in Journalism from the University of [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER: Today’s weather should offer a good clue as to what you can expect on daily basis for the rest of the week. Highs [...] - [Read more]

We’ve noticed on radar in the last 5 minutes that some “illegal showers” (a term JB Elliott coined to describe rain we didn’t expect) are developing in Noxubee County, Mississippi, as well as Pickens and Lamar Counties of western Alabama.

While we still don’t expect anything widespread, there could be some additional isolated showers or small thunderstorms mainly west of US 43 through this afternoon.

Since I’m such a football fan, I think I’ll throw a flag on the play!

Keep a watch on the radar here.

-Jason

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. MORE LIKE SUMMER: Temperatures are noticeably warmer this morning across Alabama; temperatures range from 63 at Decatur to 76 at Birmingham. We note the dewpoints [...] - [Read more]

A very quiet afternoon in the weather office on this Labor Day 2010. Scroll down for the Weather Xtreme video produced this morning; we will get back to the “two a day” schedule tomorrow as we all get back to the regular routine.

THE ALABAMA STORY: Dewpoints will creep up in coming days, meaning higher humidity levels, and a more “summer feel” to the air during the afternoons hours, and warmer nights. Looks like we stay dry tomorrow, but a few widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms should begin to show up Wednesday through Friday.

The weekend will feel more like summer, with highs in the low 90s, and the continued risk of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

HERMINE: Now with sustained winds of 60 mph, this system will be close to hurricane strength when it moves into the northern Mexican coast tonight. A hurricane watch remains in effect from Baffin Bay, Texas south. The main impact will be lots of rain for South Texas.

GASTON? The system formerly known as Tropical Storm Gaston will move through the northern Caribbean in coming days. The GFDL ramps it up to a major hurricane in five days over the western Caribbean, with no significant turn to the north. It remains to be seen if this can survive interaction with Hispaniola, but we will keep an eye on it since there is still some chance this becomes a candidate to be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane.

You can read the complete seven day forecast and discussion from the world’s greatest weatherman, J.B. Elliott, here.

One more note… turns out we are recording this week’s WeatherBrains tomorrow night at 8:30 p.m. CDT… not tonight. So, see you on the live stream then. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

WTNT35 KNHC 061431 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 …HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED… SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…23.4N 95.8W ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI…325 [...] - [Read more]

I have received many questions about the little deer that made friends with me yesterday morning (after a Facebook post)…

As I went out on the back deck with my wife to enjoy the cool temperatures early yesterday before church, we noticed a deer moving through the back yard, which is nothing unusual for our neighborhood. What was unusual was that the doe was with two newborns, which were just getting their walking legs. As we stood up to see them, mom was spooked a bit and took off, but the little guys decided to make themselves at home. I went down to get my camera, and as quietly as possible took some shots. One of the babies wobbled off slowly in the direction of the mom, but the other one eyed me, and I was surprised to see him (or her) walking in my direction. Here is a shot of both of the siblings, and the one that decided he liked me…

My wife saw this happening, and shot some video using her phone up on the deck…

So, do we have a new pet? Am I a little deer’s mom now?

No. Thank goodness.

My wife was able to lead the little guy back into the woods, and we headed for church. When we got back, no evidence of our friend, meaning there is an excellent chance the family was reunited. We checked again early this morning, and no sign of mom or the two babies. So, looks like a happy ending for my new “follower”.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. A LITTLE WARMER THIS AFTERNOON: We rise to near the 90 degree mark this afternoon, but dewpoints remain in the 40s, and the humidity will [...] - [Read more]

At 4 AM Central, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression #10 to Tropical Storm Hermine (her-MEEN). A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted from the mouth of the Rio Grande north to Baffin Bay in Texas, and from the Rio Grande south to Tampico in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Hermine should make landfall within 24 hours, and it is not expected to ramp up to hurricane status. You can track Hermine with the interactive tracking tool at abc3340.com!

Official NHC Advisory:

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 95.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 94.8W

-Jason
Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

Tropical depression number ten has formed in the southwestern Gulf.

It will move northwest and make landfall in northeastern Mexico Monday night.

It will likely become a tropical storm tomorrow. It will be named Hermine if it does.

This system will bring heavy rain to the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas.

Have you ever seen a sundog? They’re fairly common when you know what to look for.

My photographer friend Kathy Bell captured these images of a beautiful one in the western sky Saturday afternoon. She also shot the pretty cirrus unicus clouds Friday afternoon.

Sundogs are a fun optical effect. They are also known as parahelia, or mock suns. They are formed when sunlight is refracted as it passes through flat ice crystals that are falling in the upper levels of the atmosphere above 20,000 feet.

Refraction is the splitting of light into its various component colors. It is what happens in a prism. A sundog is the result when sunlight passes through cirrus or cirrostratus clouds at the right angle.

Sundogs are related to halos and sun pillars.

Thanks for sharing Kathy! Check out for Flickr feed as well.

Thanks to ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Kristie Calvin for these images… he writes:

“Hi James:

I hope you are experiencing some cooler weather down in the Heart of Dixie! We are slowly cooling off up here in the Interior of Alaska. Our nights have been in the 30’s, with several evenings at or just below freezing. Our days have been rather mild with highs in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. The days are getting shorter. On average, we are losing about 7 minutes of daylight each day. The sun rises at 6:43 a.m. and sets at 8:53 p.m.

Today, Mike and I took a two hour drive down to Denali National Park. The fall colors are almost at their peak here in North Pole and are getting close to their peak in Denali. I have attached some pictures and hope you enjoy them!”

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here. Looking over the records for my home weather station, you have to search all the way back to May 19th to find a morning as cool [...] - [Read more]

I am a little late with my monthly look forward to the climate of Central Alabama in September.  And we are getting a little sneak peek at the best that the ninth month has to offer with clear skies, warm temperatures and low humidities.

The days are considerably shorter than they were at the Summer Solstice back in June and gradually the energy budget of the atmosphere is shrinking as the sun makes less in the way of deposits and the atmosphere takes more in the form of withdrawals.  The average high in September in Birmingham is 84.6 and the average low a much more comfortable 63.0.  Both averages are 6-7 lower than those of August.

September 1925 is the hottest ninth month ever, with a sizzling average high of 96.1.  That month featured one of the worst hot spells in Central Alabama history and the hottest reading ever recorded in the state, 112F at Centreville on September 5.  There were 14 100+ days in Birmingham that September, a record that still stands.  It has been 105F or hotter eighteen times in Birmingham since 1900, and four of them occurred that month including September hottest reading of 106F.

The coldest September low occurred on the 30^th in 1967.  September 1967 also recorded the coldest average low temperature, with an average of 57.6F.

Rainfall picks up a bit in September, generally thanks to tropical systems moving in from the Gulf.  We average 4.05 inches of rain in the month.  13.19 inches fell in September 1906.   9.75 inches of rain fell on September 16, 2004 as Hurricane Ivan moved across the area.

Summer thunderstorms are on the way out, so we generally only see storms on four days on average, and It rains on 8 days on average.

The sky is clear 27% of the time, only surpassed by April, November, and October, one of the best months of the year in Alabama weatherwise.

Beautiful weather across Alabama this afternoon and great weather in store for tonight’s big SEC openers at Auburn and Tuscaloosa. Game time temperatures will start around 80F and fall into the upper 60s as you walk to your cars.

Temperatures are in the lower and middle 80s and dewpoints are in the refreshing 40s. Skies are crystal clear except for some pretty cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s in colder North Alabama spots to middle 50s across much of the area.

GASTON A GULF COAST STORM?

You remember Gaston? It had a brief stint as a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic earlier this week. Gaston is poised to make a comeback, possibly becoming a tropical depression again today about midway between the islands of the Caribbean and the Cape Verdes. The NHC puts the probability of that happening at about 80%.

The morning run of the GFS has Gaston moving slowly across the Greater Antilles this coming week, reaching a point near Miami by Monday the 13th. It then carries it to near the Central Gulf Coast by the 16th and 17th. If they plays out, it could have a big impact on Alabama’s weather

Look at the look from the GFS out 276 hours (Wednesday the 16th at 7 pm), well into voodooland:

Of course this isn’t a forecast, just a possibility and one we will have to study carefully over the coming ten days or so…

You also notice what may well be two other named storms in that picture. It’s going to continue to be a busy September in the tropical Atlantic.

EARL Tropical Storm Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia a short while ago and is bringing severe tropical storm conditions to the Maritime Provinces of Canada now. Earl’s effects in New England were minimal.  A 54 mph wind gust was recorded at Nantucket.  A sustained wind of 41 mph was recorded on the island as well. Rainfall of 2-5 inches was measured across Cape Cod.   Only 0.34 inches fell in Boston, where winds only gusted to 23 mph. Beautiful conditions today for New England with brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the 70s.  High surf conditions do continue along the coastline however.

FIONA Fiona was downgraded to a remnant low overnight and passed near Bermuda with little impact this morning. The low will continue to move out to sea.

GASTON If you remember, Gaston enjoyed a brief life as a tropical storm before being downgraded to a remnant low. But the system has continued to reorganized and will likely be upgraded back to tropical depression status later today. It is about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles now and moving west. Lots of uncertainty about what will happen with the system’s intensity. Some models ramp it up to a hurricane, others keep it weak. There is more of a consensus that it will track westward through the Caribbean, which of course poses the threat that it could eventually be a Gulf of Mexico storm in about ten days. We will just have to wait and see.

HERMINE? The wave that moved off Africa yesterday is steaming westward and could become a tropical depression over the next few days as it makes the long trip over. It is a good candidate to eventually become Hermine.

GULF DISTURBED WEATHER There is disturbed weather over the Gulf, but i does not appear to be a threat for development for now.

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here. Thanks to a cold front that has moved through Central Alabama overnight, we are going to be seeing and feeling a touch of autumn with cooler [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl weakened to a tropical storm late this evening.  Its center is passing about 75 miles southeast of Nantucket at this hour.  Top winds are 70 mph.  The system is moving northeast at 25 mph.   It will make landfall in Nova Scotia in about 10 hours.

At this hour, winds are averaging 20-30 mph on the Cape with gusts to around 45 mph.  The barometer had fallen to 29.18 inches at Nantucket. It feels quite tropical up there thanks to the air that Earl is carrying along with it. A temperature over dewpoint of 72F/70F at Nantucket last hour. Things will imprive quickly in the Boston/Cape area today with sunny skies expected and highs in the 70s.

Lots of media carping today about whether Earl was over-hyped.  The only people that I saw hyping this one was…the media.  The National Hurricane Center couldn’t have done a much better job days in advance with their forecast and the warnings were appropriate, I think.

Fiona weakened to a remnant low south of Bermuda and will pass near the island this morning.

Gaston is poised to make a comeback, possibly becoming a tropical depression again today about midway between the islands of the Caribbean and the Cape Verdes.  Some model output puts Gaston in the eastern Caribbean as a hurricane early next week and it could be knocking on the door on this side of the world by next weekend.

Another disturbance over the eastern Atlantic will likely become Hermine in the next few days.

…At this hour, Hurricane Earl is barely a hurricane with highest sustained winds of 80 mph

…..Earl was centered over 200 miles southwest of Nantucket, Mass. Moving NE at 22 mph.

…..He will weaken more and later this evening, or overnight, he will be demoted to a tropical storm.

…..Most hurricane force winds tonight should be east (offshore) from Cape Cod.

6 PM CDT SPOT REPORTS
…..Boston, light rain, wind east 14, foggy with visibility only 1/4 ile
…..Nantucket, cloudy/foggy, wind east, gusts 29
…..South of Montauk Point, N.Y., wind NE, gusts 31, 16 foot waves
…..Frying Pan Buoy, N.C., wind SW 24, five foot waves (included that report to illustrate how the weather has settled down considerably along and off North Carolina)

ALABAMA SHOWERS
At 6 o’clock, they had thinned greatly, only isolated and there is a small area of light rain Tuscaloosa County. (Translation: Most high school stadiums should stay dry for tonight’s games)

ADVANCING DRY AIR
The dew point at Tuscaloosa at 6 pm was 60. Looking upstream, it was only 48 at Jackson, in West Tennessee. That is a hint of how much lower our humidity will be Saturday.One of our most trusted (?) weather models is projecting the Birmingham dew point as low as 43 to 48 Saturday afternoon! A real feel of autumn!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. THIS AFTERNOON: A band of scattered showers and storms is moving through the Deep South ahead of a cold front; the showers are in the [...] - [Read more]

NWS Jackson has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Monroe County, Mississippi within the last few minutes… we don’t expect much in the way of severe weather, and the showers and storms will fade quickly after sunset. But, ahead of the approaching cold front some of you will deal with a little thunder and lighting this afternoon…

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 …A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…36.8N 73.1W ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM SSW [...] - [Read more]

You can tell from these reports that Earl is not as dangerous as a day or so ago. However, he can still cause a lot of problems:

…..Washington, DC…cloudy, wind NE 8
…..Norfolk, light rain, wind north gusts 25
…..Ocean City, Md., cloudy, wind north gusts 29
…..Cape Hatteras, N.C., steady, moderate rain, wind NW gusts 43
…..Philadelphia, cloudy, wind NE 9
…..Atlantic City, cloudy, wind north 13
…..Nantucket Buoy, wind ESE 6, six foot waves and 7 foot swells
…..Long Island Buoy, wind NE gusts 20, nine foot waves
…..Cape Henry, Va., wind NNW, gusts 42
…..Chesapeake Light, wind north 43, gusts 47
…..Buoy 64 NM east of Virginia Beach, 21 foot waves at 15 second intervals
…..Diamond Shoals, N.C., wind WNW gusts 47, with 14 foot waves
…..New York City, cloud, wind light and variable averaging 5 mph

Let me say quickly that I will not make a habit of posting Molly adventures on this blog. After all, it is a weather blog and I probably should not post it at all on a “hurricane day.”

However, I have received numerous queries (15-20) in just the last week, mostly via email, and some by phone, wanting to know why I stopped writing the daily Molly adventures. Actually, I have not missed a beat. They are available every afternoon Monday through Friday and in the same places. It is the last paragraph of the Seven Day Discussion and forecast and, as usual on the afternoon e-forecast which you can have sent free of charge to your email address.

There are changes since a complete 33/40 new web design. Here is a simple way to find the 7-day discussion and forecast: Look on the left side of this page and you will see a menu of links printed in blue. Click on the very top one and that will take you to it.

Little Miss Molly and I have already taken our long walk, 1/2 mile, just before sunrise this morning. I never know what to expect. She is always in one of two modes. Either the “city inspector” mode where she stops and sniffs numerous clumps of grass or weeds and ALL tree trunks. She often does a 180 to go back and check one she missed. Her other mode is full speed ahead like a runaway stage coach. Reminds me of the old b/w episodes of Roy Rogers and Dale Evans chasing a stage coach of bad guys. Of course, I have to run like a horse also but I don’t mind. Molly is responsible for my loss of 30 pounds in the last year!

Life goes on and I cannot imagine what I would do if I lost that little 9-pound ball of energy!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT: We warm into the low 90s today with a partly sunny sky, and we will still mention some risk of a [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl is now a Category Two storm with winds sustained around 105 MPH in the eye wall, but hurricane force winds (74 MPH and higher) extend out about 70 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds are out 205 miles from the center (39 MPH or higher).

At 3 AM Central, the strongest winds could be found in eastern North Carolina around Cedar Island and Frisco. Here was the NWS Moorehead City’s wind round-up at the top of the hour:

Earl is making a turn to the north-northeast, and although there will not be an official “landfall” in the United States, tropical storm force winds and gusts in the 70 to 90 MPH range will be possible early today in North Carolina’s Outer Banks and again tomorrow morning in eastern Massachusetts, Maine, and into Nova Scotia, Canada. Rough surf is also expected up and down the coast.

-Jason

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

000 WTNT32 KNHC 030238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …CENTER OF EARL PASSING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS…NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NEW ENGLAND… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…33.8N 74.4W ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM [...] - [Read more]

Sure looks like there is now some eastward component of motion. While Earl is mainly moving north, it sure looks like the center will stay a little east of the Outer Banks later tonight, which is great news. With this path and the recent weakening trend, things look better for the North Carolina coast.

There will be some coastal flooding issues, but no major structural damage with this scenario. The 10:00 p.m. CDT advisory will be out shortly and we will post when issued.

These are some spot reports along coastal sections of the Mid Atlantic states as well as some offshore reports;

…..Cape Hatteras, light rain, wind NE 17, gusts 29
…..Beaufort, N.C., light rain, wind north 24, gusts 36
…..Norfolk, cloudy east 9 mph
…..Buoy 64 miles east of Virginia Beach, 11 foot waves at 12 second intervals
…..Diamond Shoals, N.C., water temperature 83, wind NE 38, gusts 47, 20-foot waves and 16 foot swells
…..Frying Pan Shoals, wind north 30, gusts 43, 13 foot waves and 10 foot swells
…..Quantico, Va., cloudy, wind SE 14
…..Ocean City, Md., cloudy, wind east 5
…..Myrtle Beach, S.C., partly cloudy, wind north, gusts 23

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 800 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES NORTHWARD…RAINBANDS MOVING ONTO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA… SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…33.0N 74.7W ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM [...] - [Read more]

A NASA pilotless drone has flown into Hurricane Earl today and produced images like this below. Read more about the drone and the mission here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. RIGHT NOW: Not quite as hot as forecast this afternoon, and nobody is griping about that. Birmingham is at 91 degrees at 2:00 (we expected [...] - [Read more]

WTNT33 KNHC 021747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 200 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010 …FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST… SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…25.0N 66.3W ABOUT 520 MI…835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW [...] - [Read more]

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 …EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT… SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…31.7N 75.2W ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA [...] - [Read more]

NOTE: This is the latest “discussion” about Earl instead of the formal advisory. As the day goes on (and tonight) we will be posting the regular advisories and more frequent spot reports along and offshore including buoy reports and local statements.
——————————————————————————
WTNT42 KNHC 021456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON…IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS…AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED…EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED…EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS…THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z…ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

…..Hilton Head Island, sunny, wind north 12, gusts 21

…..Myrtle Beach…..Sunny, north sustained 17 mph

…..Cape Lookout, N.C., wind NE 27, gusts 33

…..Buoy 41010, wind NW 25, gusts 34, 13-foot waves

…..Cape Hatteras, cloudy, wind east 13, gusts 24

…..Buoy 300 NM south of Myrtle Beach (345 land miles) water temperature 84, (hurricanes love that)…wind NW 26, gusts 34, 13 foot waves at 13 second intervals

…..West Bermuda buoy No. 41048, wind ESE, gusts 30, waves 13 feet at 13 second intervals

…..Buoy 41001, 150 NM miles east Cape Hatteras, wind east at 30 mph, 16 foot waves occurring every nine seconds. Sea surface temperature 82

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 920 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS… MAJOR HURRICANE EARL WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY…THEN ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE EARLY [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. MID 90s POSSIBLE TODAY: Before we get to that refreshing Labor Day weekend, the weather will be pretty hot today across the great state of [...] - [Read more]

This bad boy looks very impressive on satellite images tonight. Here is the latest advisory from NHC: BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 …EARL A LITTLE STRONGER…THREATENING THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST… SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…27.8N 73.8W ABOUT [...] - [Read more]

These notes are taken from the official NWS regular forecasts (not from special statements) to give you an idea of what is expected from Hurricane Earle along the Atlantic Seaboard. People are already being evacuated from places like the North Carolina Outer Banks as well as other places.

CAPE HATTERAS/OUTER BANKS
Hurricane Warning in effect. OK tonight but for Thursday, tropical storm conditions developing with hurricane conditions possible by late afternoon. East wind 15-20 mph becoming NE 20-30, gusts to 40 in the afternoon. For Thursday night…Tropical storm conditions with possible hurricane conditions.. Northeast wind 35-45 mph becoming northwest 40-50 mph after midnight, gusts to 65 mph increasing to 70 mph after midnight. For Friday, hurricane conditions possible in the morning. Wind gusts to 50 diminishing by afternoon.

NORFOLK
Tropical Storm and a Hurricane Watch. Wind gusts to 50 mph Thursday night and Friday.

WASHINGTON
Coastal Flood Watch 6 am Thursday until late Thursday night. No real strong winds.

NANTUCKET
Hurricane Watch
No unusual weather through Thursday night. On Friday, possible tropical storm conditions and even a possibility of hurricane conditions. East winds gusting to 55 mph Friday afternoon. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night with extensive rain, heavy at times. Northeast winds will increase to 50-60 mph with gusts as high as 75 mph. This will cause huge breaking waves. Improving weather is expected Saturday with sunny, cool weather Sunday.

AS OF 7 PM ALABAMA TIME

27.2 North
73.5 West
…..565 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, N.C
…..Moving toward the NNW at 15 knots (about 17 mph)
…..Center pressure 941 millibars
…..Sustained winds 135 mph
…..wind gusts to 160 mph

Category four

We now have three named systems on the board in the Atlantic… Hurricane Earl, and Tropical Storms Fiona and Gaston. The strong wave in the far eastern Atlantic most likely will become Tropical Storm Hermine sooner than later.

The GFS recurves Gaston in the Atlantic before reaching the U.S., but that is certainly subject to change since that system has a lower latitude. And, of course, for the infant Hermine we have no idea of the ultimate destination. This might be a September to remember in the tropics…

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 …DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…26.3N 73.3W ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. HOTTER TOMORROW: Some observations at 2:00 around Alabama include 92 at Muscle Shoals, 91 at the Shelby County Airport below Alabaster, and 88 at the [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  It is moving NW.  A recent US Air Force reconassiance flight found a flight level wind of 138 knots (159 mph), so Earl may be strengthening.  Clearly, this is a large and powerful hurricane that needs to be taken seriously by anyone on the east coast of the US north of Savannah, GA.

Earl has already begun its turn NW, into the weakness in the upper level ridge.  Hurricanes move toward a path of least resistance north.  On its current NW track, it would hit the US directly.  BUT, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  Luckily, the first real cold front of the fall is coming in, with an upper-level trough, by Friday, and that trough will help push Earl more NE, likely keeping it from making a direct landfall on the East Coast.

The problem is, a slight deviation to the left could bring Earl into the outer banks of NC Friday, or even into Cape Cod Friday night.  However, the models are consistent day-to-day that this will not happen. 

However, we can’t focus on the exact track of the center of the hurricane, since it is so large.  Number one, with strong onshore flow north of the hurricane, a significant storm surge, possibly as high as 3 to 5 feet above normal tides, is possible from Wilmington, NC all the way to Boston.  Secondly, Earl is generating huge waves.  Buoys in the Atlantic are reporting waves around 38 feet this morning.  Analaysis of waves:

Notice that the red areas show waves over 30 feet, and the green areas show waves over 15 feet.  Some of these large waves will be approaching the coasts of NE FL, GA, SC, and NC later today.

Also, with Earl being so large, even if the NHC forecast track is right on, tropical storm force wind gusts could extend inland as far as Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, and Manchester, NH.   Places like the outer banks of NC and Cape Cod will likely see wind gusts over 80 mph, possibly much higher.  Norfolk, VA and Long Island, NY could see wind gusts over 65 mph.

Hurricane Earl is maintaining strength as a 125 MPH wind-packing Category 3 storm this morning, and Fiona is a little stronger too with 60 MPH sustained winds. A Hurricane Warning is now up for

Here’s a rundown of the latest information on both storms:

Hurricane Earl

Full forecast advisory: NHC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
BOGUE INLET.

Tropical Storm Fiona

Full forecast advisory: NHC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA …PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

The Atlantic is going to stay active for a while! We are getting near the climatological peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic including the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression #9 formed today, and another wave east of it could develop into TD #10 in the next few days!

-Jason

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

The National Hurricane Center has just designated the tropical wave mentioned earlier this morning as Tropical Depression Nine:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

…ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.4N 35.8W
ABOUT 830 MI…1335 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1720 MI…2770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

Lots of people interested in Coastal North Carolina in regards to Earl. This is the latest from that area. As the drama unfolds, we will also post spot reports from that area. We will also post a new advisory from the National Hurricane Center about 10 am, Alabama time. URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED HURRICANE [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to Josh New for this image… he writes…

“James,

This picture was taken via cellphone between Marion and Selma this morning. I think this may be a sunrise hole punch cloud? Interesting anyway…Enjoy!”

Sure does look like a “hole punch” cloud. Read more about them here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. PLEASANT MORNING: Feels pretty good this morning with a clear sky. We note Crossville and Valley Head in Northeast Alabama have dropped to 59 degrees, [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to Brandon Harris for this image… he writes:

“Hey James,

Here’s a panoramic I shot this afternoon from Orange Beach. Thought you’d enjoy seeing it.

Brandon from Jacksonville”

WTNT32 KNHC 312042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 …LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC…PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…22.0N 68.8W ABOUT 150 MI…245 KM [...] - [Read more]

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is generally partly sunny across the great state of Alabama this afternoon after the illegal showers this morning. Temperatures range from [...] - [Read more]

Last week we posted video of a dust devil in Pell City; check out these images from Paula Wheeler, who writes:

“James / JB / et al,

Just thought I’d pass along these pics from my son in Iraq. North of Baghdad.

He says ……. That is actually Sand.. just the wind whirling it around.. its weird when you see one out in the middle of nowhere.. and it goes up as far as you can see….

PaulaW”

Hurricane Earl has maximum sustained winds of 135 mph this afternoon.  It has weakened a little due to an eyewall replacement cycle (notice no clear hurricane eye), but is expected to intensify some more over the next 2 days.  After that, as it starts to encounter some wind shear near the US East Coast, it should weaken again, but still be at least a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph.

The track of Earl is the big question, since it will almost certainly be an intese hurricane as it approaches the east coast.  Earl is trying to turn NW today, into a weakness in the upper-level ridge left by Hurricane Danielle (some say that hurricanes follow the path of least resistance to the north).  However, this storm needs to make a 90 degree turn at least to avoid a landfall in the United States.  Right now, all models indicate that at will, in large part due to an approaching upper-level trough and cold front late this week.

Hopefully, the storm won’t speed up, and the front won’t slow down, because this one will be a close call, first for North Carolina, then for the Delmarva peninsula, then even for Long Island, Massachussetts, and Maine.  Here is the latest track forecast from NHC, and the computer models.

Even if Earl makes the big turn and avoids a direct landfall on the east coast, a hurricane this powerful will likely cause large storm surges to its north, in places like NC, SE VA, DE, and MD early on.  Then, some storm surge is possible in the NE US (including NYC and Boston).  But, it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen.  A small change of 100 miles in either direction could change this into a major disaster, or just a news event.  On the track, it will still be close enough to bring tropical storm force wind gusts possibly as far inland as Raleigh, NC and Williamsburg, VA.  The NHC is considering hurricane watches for parts of the US later today.

This is a storm to watch very closely.

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 …POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…21.2N 67.9W ABOUT 205 MI…335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 1070 MI…1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to a number of our readers who sent in these images of the morning sky over Alabama… great rainbows and sunrise scenes!

Thanks to Robin Hill for this shot of a rainbow this morning in Munford… we have a beautiful sunrise in progress over the eastern third of the state…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. SUBBORN SHOWERS: We begin the day with a few light, illegal shower activity over Alabama (when we say illegal, that means we didn’t forecast them [...] - [Read more]

Thanks to a number of our readers who sent in these images of a beautiful sunset this evening… nice shots!

WTNT32 KNHC 302047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 …EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE…MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS… SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…19.3N 64.7W ABOUT 110 MI…180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM [...] - [Read more]

WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

…TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI…1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
NONE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH…39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK…FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB…29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here. SHOWERS HANGING TOUGH: Quite frankly, most of us figured the showers would be gone by midday today, but light rain persists in the general area [...] - [Read more]

Hurricane Earl now a dangerous Category Three. A couple of spot reports closer to Earl. These observations at 11 am, Alabama time:

PUERTO RICO
…..San Juan…..rain, wind NW 22, gusts to 29

VIRGIN ISLANDS
…..Charlotte, Rain, wind NW 26, gusts 47
…..Christiansted, heavy rain, wind west gusts to 36

We will be posting more and more of these reports over the next few days as Earl continues toward the west, then northwest and finally more toward the north including offshore buoy reports especially off the Mid Atlantic US Coast.

Scattered showers started developing before sunrise from Birmingham south toward the Gulf Coast, and a batch of light to moderate showers will continue to move north from near Evergreen and Selma toward Chilton, Shelby, Jefferson, Blount and Cullman Counties.

Clouds and light rain won’t let the sun through to warm us up much, so don’t expect much of a change from yesterday. Temperatures will probably top out in the middle 80s at best once the light showers shift west of Birmingham this afternoon, so enjoy one more “cooler” day before the heat gets cranked back up by the middle of the week!

Here’s the updated forecast.

Be sure to scroll down and see JB’s rainfall round-up from the weekend!

Follow me on Twitter: @simpson3340

-Jason

BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 …EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE… SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————– LOCATION…18.7N 63.6W ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 [...] - [Read more]

Just what we needed in Alabama. A rain event that covered most or all of the state during the last three days. An added plus was that a good part of the rain was a slow steady rain that allowed almost all of it to soak in. However, there was also some thunderstorms thrown into the mix that dumped some heavy rain. Even a few trees down.

This is a list of amounts just in the 24 hours ending this morning with a few notes about two-day totals. This is not an all-inclusive list. We may add some reports later if time permits:

1.42 Decatur Airport
0.76 Huntsville Airport
0.18 Muscle Shoals
0.18 in Bankhead National Forest
0.28 Courtland
0.43 Crossville
1.92 Cullman Ag Station
0.72 Guntersville
0.17 Muscle Shoals/TVA
0.26 Russellville
0.01 Scottsboro (but they did not need rain as much)
0.33 Birmingham Airport
0.88 Anniston Airport
0.35 Shelby County Airport (home of NWS/BHM)
0.81 Mobile Regional Airport
1.62 Montgomery/Dannelly Field
1.61 Tuscaloosa Airport
0.67 Pinson
0.60 Dothan
1.09 Coker (West Tuscaloosa County, with 4.83 month to date)
0.29 Lookout Mountain near Collinsville (5.55 Month to date)
0.32 Weaver
2.50 Springville
0.98 Pleasant Grove
1.23 Downtown Trussville (1.81 2-day) (Chuck Biddinger)
1.42 South Trussville (Bill Murray)

OTHER NOTES
…..Tired ole thermometer did not get out of the 70s Sunday at Anniston, Huntsville and Muscle Shoals! After all the day-after-day 90s and even some 100+
…..Up to three inches of snow was expected over the weekend in Glacier National Park in NW Montana. Have not heard if the forecast was correct.

USA 24 HOUR EXTREMES
104 Bullhead City, Ariz. (probably no report from Death Valley)
27 this morning at Mammoth Lakes, Calif.

A GEOGRAPHY NOTE
The good ole USA covers 3,539,341 square miles and the highest point is Mt. McKinley in Alaska at 20,320 feet. Compare that with Alabama’s highest elevation, Mt. Cheaha at 2,407 feet! (My second love is photography and geography)

Thanks to Brandon Harris for this image… he writes:

“This was taken last Saturday during En Fuego in Verbena. Right after Pillar started their set the skies opened up and sent everyone scurrying for their tents and vehicles (except for the die-hard rockers). This shot was of a storm that had past by about 45 minutes before the hardest of the rain hit our location.

Thanks!

Brandon from Jacksonville”